AtlanticWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Another run of big changes at H5 hr 102 on GFS. 500mb looked a lot better lmao, what happened? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, AtlanticWx said: 500mb looked a lot better lmao, what happened? It dug further south but the primary low was far stronger, there was a slightly better Cad signature too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 We ain’t going to know much where this is heading in a legit way for another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Hotmess.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS just spits out any solution there is under the Sun from run to run. "Upgrade"? More like, Downgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Hotmess.png Did it like...just leave the primary completely behind? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Models still all over the place with the pacific jet and any possible northern stream interaction. But end result in the NE is probably lots of snow for upstate NY and NNE and not much if any for the Urban corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did it like...just leave the primary completely behind? Lol Gfs still has the primary out there next Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: 500mb looked a lot better lmao, what happened? 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It dug further south but the primary low was far stronger, there was a slightly better Cad signature too That was one thing that caught my eye as well was the confluence up top while the LP was still down in Deep South. Hoping that’s a trend at this point. F*ck it gimme the ice storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 It caught up to the Euro IRT timing. Now showing precip breaking out ~12z Thursday. GFS has been all over the place with this event - not saying this depiction won’t happen, but i have to put less confidence in the GFS overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’d love to be in a situation in which a low spinning in central PA spat out snow here. See: 00z GFS and the low in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Hell at this point it's like a glorified occluded front passage! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Hotmess.png Storm after this storm is a Mid-Atlantic SECSSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 lol gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, mappy said: lol gfs Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Reverse Torchmas 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Reverse Torchmas Hot chocolate looks pretty frozen to me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hot chocolate looks pretty frozen to me! Huh? I’m quite warm now. 90 in Bangkok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Well that was fun for a while. Euro trashes to gfs. Let’s see what tomorrow’s madness shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 WB 0Z EURO. Icy Th. Possible in mountains and far NW suburbs changing to rain east of mountains by afternoon. Good day for me to telework… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Very interesting precip and temperature depiction on the GEFS for the few days leading up to Christmas. Would imagine that a threat window emerges from this timeframe. GEFS has PNA nearing neutral or even slightly positive during this timeframe to. Coupled with an -EPO and a -AO/-NAO that are slightly rising, that definitely can't hurt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 This Euro run we saw more separation and less interaction with ULL and PAC trough. This lead to more western ridging building in earlier, and also means that the ULL doesn't negatilt early enough, and stays positive tilt for longer which isn't good. Additionally, the TPV seemed more east this run. Now we want more PAC trough interaction with ULL so that it negatilts faster, but not so much that it gets sheared out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I remember just yesterday model showing the same storm going west of the lakes into canada even with the strong blocking up north and im like huh what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Hell at this point it's like a glorified occluded front passage! Saw that myself. Not just the gfs. Past few Nina years have had plenty of these unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The big 3 global means are all suggestive of one or more waves tracking from the the deep south up along the east coast between Dec 20-25, with cold air in place. Same general favorable h5 look- Go Canada! 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 ^such a good look there…we need a little luck…a miracle perhaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^such a good look there…we need a little luck…a miracle perhaps. Miller A for Xmas! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Miller A for Xmas! Miller A in a nina--now that WOULD be a literal Christmas miracle, lol I mean seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Miller A in a nina--now that WOULD be a literal Christmas miracle, lol I mean seriously It's possible. I am mostly just having a little fun with the labels. The advertised pattern would support a primary wave taking the southern route. There will certainly be pieces of energy in the NS with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 It looks cold. At least that seems better than a maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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