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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track?

Absolutely. And that is the crutch of this hobby. Everyone here knows so much more than your family and friends. Because we take time out of our lives to look at maps and think or prophesize about what could happen if this was here or that was there. I use anything on the models outside of day 3 as a chess piece on a huge frikin chess board. The winning pieces are there this year. Which is way beyond what we could say the past two Decembers. Just have to remember that that no matter how good your game is you can still lose. 

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14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No frikin clue man. I think typed "huge snow" into google a decade ago and that is what came up. Cant change it now. :)

LOL! Fair enough, was just curious. Like I said it just reminded me of seeing cars come by from places like Ashtabula or Chardon Ohio after a lake effect snow, as if they came from another world! :lol:

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4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

500mb looked a lot better lmao, what happened?

 

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It dug further south but the primary low was far stronger, there was a slightly better Cad signature too

That was one thing that caught my eye as well was the confluence up top while the LP was still down in Deep South. Hoping that’s a trend at this point. F*ck it gimme the ice storm at this point. 

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Very interesting precip and temperature depiction on the GEFS for the few days leading up to Christmas. Would imagine that a threat window emerges from this timeframe.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-qpf_anom_5day-1926400.thumb.png.ea78a3bab8e8acd0940bb5eb88ea50ee.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_anom_5day-2099200.thumb.png.afeb956f20fb66c8fe05e0ced4d869f4.png

GEFS has PNA nearing neutral or even slightly positive during this timeframe to. Coupled with an -EPO and a -AO/-NAO that are slightly rising, that definitely can't hurt.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-0716800.thumb.png.74cf8c263ac6a15b451c623e44f5e042.png

 

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This Euro run we saw more separation and less interaction with ULL and PAC trough. This lead to more western ridging building in earlier, and also means that the ULL doesn't negatilt early enough, and stays positive tilt for longer which isn't good. Additionally, the TPV seemed more east this run. Now we want more PAC trough interaction with ULL so that it negatilts faster, but not so much that it gets sheared out.

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