December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Ji]

Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that range

Gefs has really never bought this pattern change

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that range

Yeah but it’s still worth keeping an eye on.  You would think the GEFS would at least show some idea of BN temps. Guess we will see how it evolves.  I know we don’t want vodka cold for snow chances but not room temp hot chocolate either.  

[clskinsfan]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think a solid hit of snow will do the psychology here a lot of good. Been a loooooong time

Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

To keep half an eye on but not worry about 

Ok.  I will worry for the both of us.  Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern.  Maybe somewhere in the middle.  

[CentralVaNATS]

Gefs has really never bought this pattern change

At least is not 60s

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[clskinsfan]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Ok.  I will worry for the both of us.  Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern.  Maybe somewhere in the middle.  

It is struggling with the block I think. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Ok.  I will worry for the both of us.  Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern.  Maybe somewhere in the middle.  

I was counting on you to win my bet...you're almost there.

[BristowWx]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is struggling with the block I think. 

Yes agreed.  You are level headed always so if you think we headed into an absolutely epic set up then I give that some merit.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I was counting on you to win my bet...you're almost there.

What bet?  

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS.  Looking good.  

??

 

 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

??

 

 

2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is struggling with the block I think. 

Yeah the fact that it jumped rather wildly with the first threat tells ya it ain't sure, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day

But that's not room temperature hot chocolate either, lol

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day

I wouldn't sweat it too much. 

Mean Temps are in the 30s to lower 40s for those 3 days. Atleast on the 18z GEFS

Would be a nice change from the recent run of 50s and 60s it seems we have every year on Christmas day.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS

Ya I’ll take that one 967 offshore thanks 

[Dendrimer77]

31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

??

 

 

Eff, I'd take that in a heartbeat over the balmy, South Florida weather we've had at Christmas lately

[clueless]

Mid-30s and not 50 on Christmas Day? Hell, yes. Take a pill everyone. 

[cbmclean]

38 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

??

 

 

That's actually BN for my area, at least for a high.  Maybe there are warm nights due to cloud cover?

 

Edit: By the way I realize that I am a guest in this forum and the anomalies in Wilson NC is of little to no interest to most of you.  But doesn't look too bad up in the heart of the you guys' area: mid to upper 30s in the urban areas, maybe lower 30s in the outlying areas.

[Chris78]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS

Slow bleed N+W

[AtlanticWx]

Why are we looking at and freaking out over what 18z GFS shows lmao, one OP going way out. By that logic, we should worry about every single fantasy snowstorm ever! The pattern looks great going into Christmas and maybe into January, not really any cause for concern rn

[Wonderdog]

The 18z run shows the primary pettering out in Iowa and reappears around Wilmington NC. Isn,'t that a somewhat outlier redevelopment?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time.

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles  NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading. 

Totally agree. I'm not going to get worked up over this event later next week.  My focus is more on mid-month and beyond, and hopefully this advertised pattern that looks awesome gets us something by the end of the month.

By the way, clskinsfan...off the wall question that I have been meaning to ask.  I've always liked your icon photo of the car with the mound of snow on the roof!  Where did you get that or what's it from?  It kind of reminds me of being in northeast Ohio, when I'd see all these people from the main snowbelt areas driving by with a similar mound of snow on their cars.  Almost as if they were showing off!!

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Totally agree. I'm not going to get worked up over this event later next week.  My focus is more on mid-month and beyond, and hopefully this advertised pattern that looks awesome gets us something by the end of the month.

By the way, clskinsfan...off the wall question that I have been meaning to ask.  I've always liked your icon photo of the car with the mound of snow on the roof!  Where did you get that or what's it from?  It kind of reminds me of being in northeast Ohio, when I'd see all these people from the main snowbelt areas driving by with a similar mound of snow on their cars.  Almost as if they were showing off!!

They probably call it a snow crown 

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles  NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

What does it mean to say that the primary is "rotting"?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What does it mean to say that the primary is "rotting"?

Dying....weakening...stationary and just "rotting" away. Transferring it's energy to the newly developing low near coastal NC.

[Wonderdog]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles  NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track?

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track?

Sure, thats a more typical miller b (is that what we r categorizing this as?) scenario ie TN Valley. But for the lowlands, where is the antecedent cold air source that we require?

The quasi 50/50 can only do so much with what it has to work with. We are relying on an almost perfect situation where the system either bombs out and becomes dynamics-driven to help those near the fall line. Im not forecasting 33 and rain for everyone. Im actually pretty optimistic that many places see their first frozen of the season.