SnowenOutThere Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ji hasn’t been that bad Imo, just a frustrated post now and then when a specific storm doesn’t work out. The other guy though…is just straight trolling and contributes absolutely nothing of substance ever. Have you seen him in the tropical threads? This isn’t even his best trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Have you seen him in the tropical threads? This isn’t even his best trolling But yet oddly enough last year he was doing reverse trolling here...lol Like almost overly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably a snowman19 sock. is a western trof as shown at 384 the key to a cold snowy east? I would argue it is not ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: is a western trof as shown at 384 the key to a cold snowy east? I would argue it is not ideal. I would argue you don't have a clue what you're talking about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But yet oddly enough last year he was doing reverse trolling here...lol Like almost overly positive my prediction of 150 percent of normal snow in east is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I am a firm believer in the inverse Idub23 index (note the date) On 11/22/2021 at 8:50 AM, ldub23 said: JB is right again. Here comes winter and a bitter cold Dec. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: my prediction of 150 percent of normal snow in east is in trouble You make StormChaser Chuck look brilliant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: You make StormChaser Chuck look brilliant Chuck is pretty smart tbh. He doesn't troll on purpose. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something Exactly what I was thinking when I saw those 850mb temps and the overall setup. It's an interesting evolution of a storm, to be sure (if it plays out that way), but for anyone outside the western and north-central parts of the forum, you cannot realistically expect to see much (if any?) accumulating snow. I'm speaking from the metro DC area, just north of the Beltway, so one's mileage may vary. There is zero decent cold air leading into it. But...that said...I think if it works out many of us can at least maybe see some flakes after it goes by. 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yea, but they look like we should expect for this type of system. Primary into the Midwest in mid December without an arctic airmass in place…not the way we win. Is it within the realm of possible sure, if we get super lucky in every detail, but we need more than just a block to snow. It gets annoying everytime we get blocking and then some assume every storm has to be snow suddenly. We rain during a blocking pattern all the time. Maybe even still more than snow! We need blocking AND the right synoptic setup. This ain’t it. Root for a fluke but don’t expect anything from this setup. It’s a bonus. Our better chances come after. Waves between the 20-25 need to be watched closely imo. Again, this is the correct attitude I think. Sure a fluke would be nice but for much of the sub forum that's looking like a cold rain and maybe (??) some bit of snow either right at the start and/or at the end. I think it's just "too early" in the season with no real cold already in place. If it were farther along in the season, might be a different story. I'm kind of a lot more interested in what happens after this system, when we might actually have some real cold to deal with and other factors in our favor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Chuck is pretty smart tbh. He doesn't troll on purpose. Truth. Unfortunately no one can understand his brilliance most of the time lol. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Truth. Unfortunately no one can understand his brilliance most of the time lol. He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions. Did not know that, props to Chuck, but Debbie Downer is a complete troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Truth. Unfortunately no one can understand his brilliance most of the time lol. I remember when he predicted a very mild winter and everyone got mad at him, and he turned out to be correct. He also nailed the historic 09-10 winter if I recall correctly. When I read his posts it comes off as confusing and flip-floppy, and I’m barely hanging onto his words most of the time. But his intelligence is definitely not in question. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18Z GFS with another ROFL run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, it looks like the models are starting to converge onto a solution where PA and north get some snow and most of this sub gets mostly a wintry mix/rain with little or no accumulations. Not enough cold air yet, particularly at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? Still there, just not cold enough. Sorry Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The ULL just spits out a piece of energy due east. The GFS gets more creative every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnStormchaserChuck Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! Just feeling outside.. it's probably going to snow, Dec 19-29 especially (+pna makes such a big difference). I mentioned this to ORH in SNE subforum-3 before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: The ULL just spits out a piece of energy due east. The GFS gets more creative every year. Wonky depiction - something tells me it doesn’t happen as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, Amped said: The ULL just spits out a piece of energy due east. The GFS gets more creative every year. The flow is a bit more compressed(h5 vorticity is stretched out) due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing/interaction can make significant differences in outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Wonky depiction - something tells me it doesn’t happen as shown. 5 days out so ya probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The flow is a bit more compressed due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing can make significant differences in outcome. Blocking, deampllification and the 50/50 low having a combined impact. I guess this kind of happened with the PDII storm, but it wasn't this pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one. Yeah, that primary lp rotting away near the border of North Dakota does not bode well for us. The Euro has swapped places with the GFS and has some more favorable cold to the point where it's ~5F+ colder at the surface and 3-4C colder up at 850mb for a good bit of the general subforum at 6z Thursday, and it tracks the primary lp a good bit farther south. Still not too serviceable of an airmass, but still enough for frozen at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 As I said the other day, all our hopes and dreams are mostly dependent on random interactions between waves. Man what a weird hobby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. I think pretty much everyone here realizes this is a marginal cold setup, with relatively low chances for significant frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Can we tighten up the the discussion here and move the banter to another thread? 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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