December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[H2O]

Everyone along 95 looking at the euro 

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

So, we are in the game, and we still have time Ralph!  Actually, its pretty early in the game only 2 minutes into the 1st quarter.  (Football analogy there)  

I think it is more tho than just the handoff and the track verbatim. Even a perfect track is playing with fire in the i95 corridor and even just slight n and w mainly because of the prolonged SE fetch out ahead. You have a rotting primary somewhere in the midwest with the nao forcing redevelopment way far S and e away from said primary. Especially without an anomalously cold antecedent airmass, those mid levels are going to get toasted most likely. 

But as you said, lots of time to fine tune. If i were in elevated interior areas i would be bricked up after 12z fr fr.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

As is an op run rain map right?

Pretty much the same. No one here cares about rain this time of year though.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

An op run snow map at this range is clown either way dude.

Today the GFS caved to the EURO.  And we are supposed to take its new solution when everyone is saying the GFS just made a thermal adjustment of some kind????  I think this could go either way five days out as it always can, but there is no reason to give the GFS more credence when it is playing catch-up.  And when is the Canadian ever correct?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS:  pick a low position; track not set in stone   could go either way.

[Bob Chill]

It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated  mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something 

[nj2va]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS:  pick a l0ow position

Thanks Will, how does that compare to 00z low positions?  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Today the GFS caved to the EURO.  And we are supposed to take its new solution when everyone is saying the GFS just made a thermal adjustment of some kind????  I think this could go either way five days out as it always can, but there is no reason to give the GFS more credence when it is playing catch-up.  And when is the Canadian ever correct?

Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do.

I appreciate your expertise.  

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Thanks Will, how does that compare to 00z low positions?  

 

[Bob Chill]

It's maps like these that suck the air out of the room.

It's the very beginning of our snow climo and that always requires at least a modest BN temp profile where it counts. Especially when slp is fighting to bring it down into the mix. In mid Jan, marginal or AN mid level temps to our north work fine because it's pretty cold anyways. I'd love to see snow as much as anyone but temps are not an ingredient we skip over too easily 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I appreciate your expertise.  

lol I am no expert, but I guess I have learned enough over the years to identify the important features and their interactions in a given setup. Large scale fluid mechanics. Cool stuff and complex. I actually enjoy it.

[RDM]

3 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

can you pick up a package for me? Go to the Nana plaza. Ask for Matilda!  thanks

Many much more classy places to go than Nana.  At times it is off-limits to farong (foreigners) and can be a violent place when folks misbehave.  Lived not far from it for nearly 3 years.  

[Bob Chill]

83-84 was a stinker here but 83 featured a nasty arctic outbreak leading into the holidays. Mid-Dec 83 500mb analogs have been popping up regularly last 4-5 days. It did snow a few inches that Dec pre-holiday. From afar, it doesn't look like a huge artic outbreak is ripe but certainly possible. Something to watch. If the epo ridge starts freezing western Canada, it's only a matter of time b4 a lot of cold pushes pretty far south and east. 

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Miller B wraparound! Always a winner for us 

No matter how many times you say it the usual suspects will still melt down and unleash a rant in tongues when it fails. 
 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS at the end of its run….cold Christmas morn.

[AtlanticWx]

Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is one of the nicer setups here in a sense. A lot of our threats are usually thread-the-needle/one phase can mess up the whole storm kind of storm, but this one is just us relying on one trough and its track. Cold is there associated w/ the trough, just need a good track. The better track (06z GFS yesterday/00z Euro) would definitely fare well here.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS at the end of its run….cold Christmas morn.

 

Everything considered, including comments from several media outlets regarding frigid conditions in the East near Christmas, its not really that cold. We had colder  already, teens as low temps were recorded at many locations.  That was when we had the record - EPO a while back. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No matter how many times you say it the usual suspects will still melt down and unleash a rant in tongues when it fails. 
 

 

As you know, the rule of thumb is once the surface low is north of our latitude, the precipitation shuts off in these situations. What could keep it going is lift generated by the 500mb low, which euro does seem to show.

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated  mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something 

So in a word...this came about a couples weeks too early? Lol

[H2O]

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated  mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something 

Yeah i can’t get hyped about snow chances with this storm as of yet. Can’t ignore the obvious with Tangier to Kent Island type track. Climo and just too much warm air flooding in. 
 

Big ass block can only do so much and if there isn’t help with a decent cold air source then mids win

[Kevin Reilly]

18 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is one of the nicer setups here in a sense. A lot of our threats are usually thread-the-needle/one phase can mess up the whole storm kind of storm, but this one is just us relying on one trough and its track. Cold is there associated w/ the trough, just need a good track. The better track (06z GFS yesterday/00z Euro) would definitely fare well here.

I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean.  I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east.

[psuhoffman]

[BristowWx]

^thats impressive cold….not so much for us But you gotta like our chances

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, BristowWx said:

^thats impressive cold….not so much for us But you gotta like our chances

It looks dare i say ideal? We dont want the core of anomalous cold centered over us. Those maps in tandem are ideal...there, I said it.

[CAPE]

Still hints of low pressure developing near the gulf for this period. This sort of look could produce a low tracking up along but somewhat off the coast, potentially  better for the lowlands.

 

[AtlanticWx]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean.  I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east.

We have a pretty strong high to our north with CAD which is usually undermodeled so the cold air at the surface does come from a decent source. But yeah, I don't think we get a purely snow event, but a wintry mix -> snow and maybe some rain is definitely plausible.

[Ji]

Today has been a letdown...stuff looked better when it was getting shredded lol. Hopefully we can get some frozen precip from the event to guarantee a non frozen precip shutout this winter!

[ldub23]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Everything considered, including comments from several media outlets regarding frigid conditions in the East near Christmas, its not really that cold. We had colder  already, teens as low temps were recorded at many locations.  That was when we had the record - EPO a while back. 

 

 

Looks pretty mundane. gfs run at 384 very wet out west