WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It’s 10:49pm here in Thailand, I’m at a club and shooing my friend away because I’m in a f*cking corner watching the GFS come out. What’s wrong with us? Hey have fun there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Our better chances come after. Waves between the 20-25 need to be watched closely imo. This. Things look ripe after this big storm passes. Plenty of cold air and continuing energy moving into the southwest. Very Nino-like. Just a matter of how things time up and where they are located. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This. Things look ripe after this big storm passes. Plenty of cold air and continuing energy moving into the southwest. Very Nino-like. Just a matter of how things time up and where they are located. Yup. One think I think some underestimate…we’re too far south to ever have a can’t miss super high snow probability setup from long range. No matter how good the pattern is…we always will still need some luck wrt timing and other synoptic and meso scale details that can’t be seen until medium range at best. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: 12z CMC starts frozen at 114 Still frozen i95 and west at 126 We get the overrunning 4”, then it pizzles to drizzle, coastal takes over and Balt to NYC gets more snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Fwiw UKMET looks like CMC/GFS. Mostly an upstate NY into New England event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yup. One think I think some underestimate…we’re too far south to ever have a can’t miss super high snow probability setup from long range. No matter how good the pattern is…we always will still need some luck wrt timing and other synoptic and meso scale details that can’t be seen until medium range at best. It's even worse for us SE weenies. The difference between a shut-out pattern and a ripe one is the difference between a 99.9% fail rate and a 95% fail rate. And yet we still track. Says something about us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: It's even worse for us SE weenies. The difference between a shut-out pattern and a ripe one is the difference between a 99.9% fail rate and a 95% fail rate. And yet we still track. Says something about us. if we ask a psychiatrist, probably nothing good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: It's even worse for us SE weenies. The difference between a shut-out pattern and a ripe one is the difference between a 99.9% fail rate and a 95% fail rate. And yet we still track. Says something about us. I think we all score before the calendar turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 That being said, for those of us who also love cold in and of itself, the bar can be lower. I'm salivating at the prospect of it actually being, you know, cold in the week before Christmas, instead of it being tropical like it has been all too frequently this past decade. And the chances look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We get the overrunning 4”, then it pizzles to drizzle, coastal takes over and Balt to NYC gets more snow. I'd take that easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 One thing I took away from some of the info people posted yesterday is that the MJO is basically dormant right now. So we do get a nice period it won't be due to the MJO. So I guess its nice to know that it is not the end-all-be-all. Still frustrating that it seems physically incapable of running through 7-8-1-2 at decent amplitude. Hopefully that is partially due to the endless Nina, but I remember that it was pegged in the bad phases back in 2018-2019 as well, which was a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I think we all score before the calendar turn. We probably want to root for less amped strung out like 6z. That got our area on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 CMC is a pretty high impact event for the mountains. Ice to mix to snow with the initial system then long duration upslope. Would put down a solid snow cover that would last for weeks with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We probably want to root for less amped strung out like 6z. That got our area on the board. Volume needs to come down a bit for this one, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 RE: Thurs-Fri event The 12z GEFS is advisory level snow/ice N&W of I-95. It's "contaminated" by a few inland running coastal lows that go into Lancaster/Lehigh Valley. If we get rid of those, it's probably a solid event. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Current top CIPS analog is December 12, 1992 for the GFS run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 12Z EURO 10 am Th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4pm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 EURO is slower than 00z. Monster blocking over Ontario is even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Lord Clark she’s a beut. Just get that secondary like 75-100 miles east and we all singing Kumbaya 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We get the overrunning 4”, then it pizzles to drizzle, coastal takes over and Balt to NYC gets more snow. Keep in mind, the CMC notoriously runs cold fwiw. Otoh, the GFS used to run too cold also but the latest ugrade package was suppised to address this. Not sure how relevant this might be but figured I would at least make note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 ^thickness not good for snow here with 552…still icy is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Re euro, handoff happens plenty far south.... a little more east would be gold.....white gold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Smoking the western burbs at 132. 81 crew will like this run so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro is just so close to a smoking. We need just a little more block over the top to push this thing down but a bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 That EURO run looks like get a cabin in Deep Creek and enjoy. Been told my work is fully remote till at least the holidays so… very tempting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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