December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I had to google “phwoar”

Hope you had your safe search settings on

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Also, I’m sick, isolating from the family due to a Covid exposure, and bored. 

Yuck...hard to avoid gettin' sick with something this season. Get well soon, mappy

[poolz1]

Another image to clutter the thread it but shows an interesting feature off the west coast.  Over the past 24 hours the GEFS have trended to make the trough east of HI the dominant trough in the PAC. Not strong enough to send a major PNA ridge up and force a cold/dry pattern but enough to entice some mild ridging in the rockies. Maybe this feature will be what spins off plenty pieces of energy to play with as the NAO matures/relaxes.   

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Lolz

Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize.

Low off the Canadian Maritimes reforms off the Mid-Atlantic due to a massive pig block?

I could see it happening.

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, frd said:

 

Several interesting developments to keep track of moving forward: The rapid snow cover extent in the NH, and thoughts about the Hunga-Tonga Volcano erruption in Dec. 2021 and effects on the PV.   

 

 

 

 

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The self professed greatest Met ever likes to criticize that guy. 

[Daniel Boone]

29 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Another image to clutter the thread it but shows an interesting feature off the west coast.  Over the past 24 hours the GEFS have trended to make the trough east of HI the dominant trough in the PAC. Not strong enough to send a major PNA ridge up and force a cold/dry pattern but enough to entice some mild ridging in the rockies. Maybe this feature will be what spins off plenty pieces of energy to play with as the NAO matures/relaxes.   

Good catch and possibility actually. 

[anotherman]

The self professed greatest Met ever likes to criticize that guy. 

He’s the biggest weenie and snow hyper on Twitter.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d like to see it be January during El Niño 

I might be more worried about the December part than the Nina.  I think the odds of a HECS level event is obviously muted but in terms of a secs/mecs level event I’m not sure our fail rate is really that much higher during Nina extreme blocking episodes.  We just don’t get them as often since the favored Nina mjo phases are hostile to blocking. Yea we have had some Nina -NAO fails like Dec 2010 and 2000-01.  But we had 1996, March 99, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Jan 2011, and March 2018 that did deliver. We don’t have a 100% success rate in a Nino either.  But we tend to get many more blocking opportunities and if we get a -NAO reloading all winter eventually….people forget we had blocking most of winter 2016 after New Years but mostly wasted it except for the one massive hit. But Imo the bigger issue is December climo has becoming so hostile we might get a perfect track storm and have it be too warm. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the odds of a HECS level event is obviously muted but in terms of a secs/mecs level event I’m not sure our fail rate is really that much higher during Nina extreme blocking episodes.

But isn't it even more than just blocking with Ninas? I thought another reason were also problematic because of having little to no STJ...and more NS interference. That element isn't as problematic in Niños, is it?

Also, I'm still trying to visualize how 1995-96 worked...was the blocking so strong it forced everything under us, or?

[CAPE]

Something a little interesting on the 0z Euro ens, in the window where we might expect to see a colder event with the favorable pattern established.

[BristowWx]

just the op run at long range but week of 12th still looks like we take the polar plunge.  Hopefully not too much of a good thing but that -NAO is a beaut!

[Bob Chill]

Personally, I'm rooting for something bootleg or sheared or trailing thru mid month. Climo highways with big synoptic storms are really hard to skip lanes from the MA southward. Blocks alone can't stop an ocean air vacuum coastal from being to warm here. The surface is hard enough with early season climo. Mid levels with a storm off the coast are even harder. SNE or even Philly may be looking for a big wound up event. I'm not. We never get big snowstorms in early Dec even when the h5 maps say we might

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Personally, I'm rooting for something bootleg or sheared or trailing thru mid month. Climo highways with big synoptic storms are really hard to skip lanes from the MA southward. Blocks alone can't stop an ocean air vacuum coastal from being to warm here. The surface is hard enough with early season climo. Mid levels with a storm off the coast are even harder. SNE or even Philly may be looking for a big wound up event. I'm not. We never get big snowstorms in early Dec even when the h5 maps say we might

This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north. 

Snow falling and sticking would be a win in my books....at any time of the winter honestly

[mappy]

I saw on twitter last night someone mentioned 2009 as an analog for the upcoming pattern. 13 year anniversary snow? 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north. 

We worry about mids with a 1028 over lake placid in the middle of Jan during a good winter 

It's obviously not happening but I did like the look of a TN vly overrunner last week on ens guidance. That type of synoptic can do a foot+ without any kind of modest or strong slp pass. That's the killer here. Easterly flow in the mids is no Bueno. Overrunners have SW flow in the mids. Just need to be on the right side. Simple right! It's always easy here! 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I saw on twitter last night someone mentioned 2009 as an analog for the upcoming pattern. 13 year anniversary snow? 

Not to mention that's as long as it's been since the first Avater. Last time that movie came out we had epic Dec and then snowmageddon...Avatar comin out in a few weeks....redux? 

[midatlanticweather]

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north. 

You all and your reasonable posts! Thank goodness for some reason in the midst of weenie hype. OR, we could say, we are due? LOL! The December 5th events that we always refer to when that date comes around is just fine by me! A wave on a front or even a couple few inch clippers would make me hungry for more but happy to get some events!

 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

This was my thought when I responded to @brooklynwx99 yesterday when he was saying it looks like a big dog pattern. It does! But there are like zero big dog events in our area before mid-December (and few in December total) for a reason. So we need to scale our expectations accordingly and recognize that our path to victory is not the same as for our “friends” to the north. 

Is the pattern really showing big dog looks before mid December though? It seems like it would actually be mid December or so for when the NAO might relax and we get a shot at something big? Dare I say 2009?

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Is the pattern really showing big dog looks before mid December though? It seems like it would actually be mid December or so for when the NAO might relax and we get a shot at something big? Dare I say 2009?

The general way I see things is this, with the progression shown like the 0z eps and most recent ensemble forecasts.
Pattern changing cold front: Dec 7

Clipper or southern slider pattern: Dec 8-12

EC storm pattern: after Dec 13

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The general way I see things is this, with the progression shown like the 0z eps and most recent ensemble forecasts.
Pattern changing cold front: Dec 7

Clipper or southern slider pattern: Dec 8-12

EC storm pattern: after Dec 13

It seems like the patterns also usually end up slightly delayed, or even once it flips, it takes awhile before it's our turn.

[IronTy]

There's a lot of loose talk in this thread with the 2009 December analog. We got the +-LGBTQNAOAOMJO, we got the petunia index, wooly worm index, now even the avatar index calling for it.  Might need to tighten up a bit.  

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The general way I see things is this, with the progression shown like the 0z eps and most recent ensemble forecasts.
Pattern changing cold front: Dec 7

Clipper or southern slider pattern: Dec 8-12

EC storm pattern: after Dec 13

12z GGEM shows this @CAPE scenario for Dec 9 with a modest VA hit.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The general way I see things is this, with the progression shown like the 0z eps and most recent ensemble forecasts.
Pattern changing cold front: Dec 7

Clipper or southern slider pattern: Dec 8-12

EC storm pattern: after Dec 13

Which, quite honestly, is exactly what we should want. Not that anyone cares but even up here snow climo is pretty hostile until mid-month. 

What I love is that we're moving into December with not just a massive and positive pattern change legitimately on the table, it looks to unfold at a time that should enhance what is increasingly favorable climo. Even better, history suggests a strong December block leads to additional blocking during the heart of winter. I think most of us would take a solid to strong six week pattern between Dec 15-Jan 31.  

As others have said, we should be patient and temper expectations because pattern does NOT necessarily equal production, but I'd much rather be looking at what could be our best December blocking pattern in a decade than some milquetoast 500mb evolution I have to do mental gymnastics with for a non-torch December. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Which, quite honestly, is exactly what we should want. Not that anyone cares but even up here snow climo is pretty hostile until mid-month. 

What I love is that we're moving into December with not just a massive and positive pattern change legitimately on the table, it looks to unfold at a time that should enhance what is increasingly favorable climo. Even better, history suggests a strong December block leads to additional blocking during the heart of winter. I think most of us would take a solid to strong six week pattern between Dec 15-Jan 31.  

As others have said, we should be patient and temper expectations because pattern does NOT necessarily equal production, but I'd much rather be looking at what could be our best December blocking pattern in a decade than some milquetoast 500mb evolution I have to do mental gymnastics with for a non-torch December. 

Where do I sign?

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Where do I sign?

I know, right? At the very least, it should feel like December. I've gotten tired of the wall to wall torches during the holiday season. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS does not look good compared to yesterday.  Lot of volatility in Week of Dec 12.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS does not look good compared to yesterday.  Lot of volatility in Week of Dec 12.

It's because of it's placement of that monster off the Washington coast. 

[brooklynwx99]

the OP runs are going to struggle mightily in a pattern with lots of blocking and amplification. something like the 12z GFS isn't impossible, obviously, but a strong, west-based -NAO leads to a trough in the east much of the time, like what the 00z EPS has

it's the same kind of thing as thinking we're going to see a -NAO and a favorable pattern coming based on one or two OP runs when there's a vortex over AK and the SPV is super strong. the general waveguide in the NH does favor a good pattern, we just have to see if we can weed out some of the more unlikely, unfavorable solutions over the coming week or so

or our luck could be atrocious and we get last December all over again. we'll see! i really doubt it though

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS does not look good compared to yesterday.  Lot of volatility in Week of Dec 12.

Why are you posting a day 15 op?