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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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To somehow stay majority frozen for us we want that coastal capture by upper level energy as far south and east as we can get it. That capture will yank the low NW like the GFS shows. Combine a Midwest primary with a warm ocean and it’s really hard to keep the column below freezing. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Awful runs today.

Over the past 36-48 hours of runs concerning this system late week they are all over the place perfect evolution, to crushed sheared south, to now over amped.  I will wait.  Somehow, I think the solution is somewhere in between let's see the Euro.  I do not trust the GFS especially way too volatile. 

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Over the past 36-48 hours of runs concerning this system late week they are all over the place perfect evolution, to crushed sheared south, to now over amped.  I will wait.  Somehow, I think the solution is somewhere in between let's see the Euro.  I do not trust the GFS especially way too volatile. 

It’s also 5 days out so there’s about 0 chance what any models shows will be right at this point. 

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3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This looks pretty good at face value. The OP has been all over the place so still sticking with the ENS here for sure.

The mean is not bad. Temps super marginal verbatim, but it implies colder air coming in as precip is still going(that always works!)

It would probably be good enough to get the NW crew on the board for sure.

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51 minutes ago, Ji said:

Awful runs today.

Yea, but they look like we should expect for this type of system. Primary into the Midwest in mid December without an arctic airmass in place…not the way we win. Is it within the realm of possible sure, if we get super lucky in every detail, but we need more than just a block  to snow. It gets annoying everytime we get blocking and then some assume every storm has to be snow suddenly. We rain during a blocking pattern all the time. Maybe even still more than snow!  We need blocking AND the right synoptic setup. This ain’t it. Root for a fluke but don’t expect anything from this setup. It’s a bonus. Our better chances come after. Waves between the 20-25 need to be watched closely imo. 

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