frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Expect some crazy outcomes late week as the jet reverses. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Hmmm 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Chris78 said: And still on going...... There will be more and different iterations to come. The 6z GFS was quite different from previous runs, with the initial weaker attempt at coastal redevelopment, then dropping that vort in behind with another attempt over the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm Code yellow, folks that’s a code yellow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 06 GEFS mad a sig move toward a euro type solution. Long duration, tucked low. 4.5/5 days from when the low starts to reform somewhere in the SE. Cautiously optimistic that we are starting to see some general agreement. Obviously, the convoluted progression remains a red flag but can't deny the developments over the past 24 hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Code yellow, folks that’s a code yellow! You mean code yeller 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Looks cold for Christmas behind our coastal storm. This Dec so far is really jarring my memory of what an un-hostile Nina can look like. Everything is progressing inside the guardrails of a good winter in the west and east. Back in my old CO stomping ground is going thru a perfect Nina start. Old friends are already talking a 95-96 redux lol. Next up for them will be 2 weeks of bluebird if the guardrails stay intact (break out the parkas here). Then mid Jan goes nuts. If blocking reasserts, select eastern weenies will go nuts too. Here or there? Stay tuned! Lol 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Probably no one notices, but I am really trying to limit the snow maps to discrete threats within range as compared to last year. The mean snow maps inside six days or so I don’t think are clown maps. They depict what the individual perturbations are trying to forecast. Can’t believe there are only about 2 weeks left in 2022. I hope everyone gets the weather ending they are hoping for this calendar year….but if you want beach weather, head to the Florida Keys! 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This Dec so far is really jarring my memory of what an un-hostile Nina can look like. Everything is progressing inside the guardrails of a good winter in the west and east. Back in my old CO stomping ground is going thru a perfect Nina start. Old friends are already talking a 95-96 redux lol. Next up for them will be 2 weeks of bluebird if the guardrails stay intact (break out the parkas here). Then mid Jan goes nuts. If blocking reasserts, select eastern weenies will go nuts too. Here or there? Stay tuned! Lol Clear the gutters and prep for the floods? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 hours ago, BristowWx said: Ok. Little better. Sorry I should have let 126-132 come out. Still not great. Yea but at least it is trying to get something going even in separate pieces. It would not take much for the GFS to revert back to what it showed just 24 hours ago. It would appear to me that the GFS is having difficulty ironing out how strong of a PNA out west and also struggling with the strength of the block in the Northeast. We have seen this song and dance before time and time again. Chances are the 12z GFS is a step toward the Euro or a revert back to the what the GFS showed Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: I suppose it's debatable how much value they have at range, but the context of my post in response to WxUSAF's post was more about expectations. I was jokingly making the same point / hard to get snow - I almost need to see three feet close by to hope for mood flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You mean code yeller 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Probably no one notices, but I am really trying to limit the snow maps to discrete threats within range as compared to last year. The mean snow maps inside six days or so I don’t think are clown maps. They depict what the individual perturbations are trying to forecast. Can’t believe there are only about 2 weeks left in 2022. I hope everyone gets the weather ending they are hoping for this calendar year….but if you want beach weather, head to the Florida Keys! You're doing ok. At this range with a discrete threat on guidance, the maps on the means become more useful. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Clear the gutters and prep for the floods? You've gotten too good at deciphering. Might be time to take a crack at the dead sea scrolls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Looking through the 6z GEFS members, it definitely made a jump towards a coastal redeveloper as others have mentioned this morning - there’s timing differences amongst the members but this gives you a good idea of the potential in these few frames. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looking through the 6z GEFS members, it definitely made a jump towards a coastal redeveloper as others have mentioned this morning - there’s timing differences amongst the members but this gives you a good idea of the potential in these few frames. 11 please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 If winter is coming to the east shouldnt the moist flow end out west? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looking through the 6z GEFS members, it definitely made a jump towards a coastal redeveloper as others have mentioned this morning - there’s timing differences amongst the members but this gives you a good idea of the potential in these few frames. Probably better to see those redevelopers near ORF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Well we did it ! Achieved a - 4.0 SD on the AO. Good times should follow. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv The AO looks to remain negative. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: I went into that movie as a boy and came out a man. They don't make em like that anymore, maybe for good reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Interesting CPC D+ 11 Analog Composite. Notice the years from the 1960's, 1970's. I believe @Bob Chill mentioned he was looking at 1960's type winter comparisons for this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Can you imagine if we get snow cover prior to this arctic beast. What an opposite December from the last 10 years. It does look like a 1960's type winter pattern for a period of time, leading up to and most likely going past the first of the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 It’s 10:49pm here in Thailand, I’m at a club and shooing my friend away because I’m in a f*cking corner watching the GFS come out. What’s wrong with us? 5 20 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s 10:49pm here in Thailand, I’m at a club and shooing my friend away because I’m in a f*cking corner watching the GFS come out. What’s wrong with us? I signed up for Easternuswx like 18 years ago then here when it switched over. If we haven’t figured out what’s wrong with us yet we never will lol 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s 10:49pm here in Thailand, I’m at a club and shooing my friend away because I’m in a f*cking corner watching the GFS come out. What’s wrong with us? It's a sickness. A delightful sickness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s 10:49pm here in Thailand, I’m at a club and shooing my friend away because I’m in a f*cking corner watching the GFS come out. What’s wrong with us? 3 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, frd said: Well we did it ! Achieved a - 4.0 SD on the AO. Good times should follow. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv The AO looks to remain negative. Even more impressive is even 7 day guidance is busting high. Look at 14 day. That type of verification anomaly isn't very common. Look at the trend since Nov 1st. There isn't an analog I know of that shows AO behavior already in the books that magically flips quickly. There's a few that dumpster fire in mid Jan and beyond. 2011 fits that but that was literally the multi-year blocking base state's last breath. There are others tho 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 My expectations for this week are just getting on the board. Anything else is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 Kaiser says NEIN although probably some eis if I can interpret from TT charts. Dat storm after the storm tho… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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