BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6z GFS looks even more shredded. No precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS looks even more shredded. No precip at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS looks even more shredded. No precip at all. Ok. Little better. Sorry I should have let 126-132 come out. Still not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 6Z v OZ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ok. Little better. Sorry I should have let 126-132 come out. Still not great. Agreed, so now we see if over the next few runs whether it is now trending towards EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB GFS through the weekend period, another wave or maybe it is still figuring out the first wave is going to stall like EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed, so now we see if over the next few runs whether it is now trending towards EURO. And now a little follow up wave on 6z. At the least maybe some first flakes for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS through the weekend period, another wave or maybe it is still figuring out the first wave is going to stall like EURO? Looks to me via the h5 vort charts that a lobe of that 50/50 remains trapped under the nao and regressed back and dives into the ull energizing the system. We just cant know at this point....very convoluted look. Could be 2 separate things or one drawn out event. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS Looking at that spread this is far from a done deal. We need to roll well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 I’m still looking beyond next week’s weird ass thing. I see you EPS. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On the 6z GFS, the vort that was previously coming in behind the ocean low(50-50) and helping to squash the main wave, now misses and slides SW under the Canadian ridge and comes in behind our wave of interest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 It doesn't quite come together in time at the surface for our region but there is more space/less squash, so more coastal development. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m still looking beyond next week’s weird ass thing. I see you EPS. I am mostly looking ahead(for my yard). The late week deal might work out for some, most likely inland and north I think ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I am mostly looking ahead(for my yard). The late week deal might work out for some, most likely inland and north I think ultimately. Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening… Agree with everything you said here especially the last part. I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday. For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many. Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening… Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol. But Harrisburg is getting 24”!! If the storm tucks a little more or closes off 13mi farther south, it could be us!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Agree with everything you said here especially the last part. I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday. For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many. Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations. Of course if somehow those gaudy snow totals DO shift south, can I rent a car and drive home… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m still looking beyond next week’s weird ass thing. I see you EPS. It's a potential MILLER A!! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: next week’s weird ass thing I vote yea on this being the name of the system 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Looks cold for Christmas behind our coastal storm. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Nice overview of the late week system/potential from Mount Holly in their morning AFD. I now have the generic rain/snow in my forecast Wed night into Friday. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.. Looking at the larger scale big picture, the main story for the long range will be a continuing blocking pattern remaining in place over the north Atlantic. This will help keep surface high pressure dominant over eastern Canada which will also have a tendency to force more of a southern storm track as (as opposed to storms riding up to our north and west). In terms of the forecast details, Tuesday through Wednesday look to remain dry and on the cool side with a continuing northerly flow due to the high to our north. Looking towards late next week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast especially with regards to a potential storm system. The deterministic GFS really downplays the storm potential as it shears out approaching shortwave energy approaching from the west. Meanwhile the GEM Global, ECMWF, and some of the GFS ensemble perturbations depict a large lumbering upper level trough approaching from the central CONUS with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes giving way to secondary low development off the coast. If this were to verify, it could mean a fairly significant coastal storm affecting the region by next Thursday into Friday. But even then, there are still questions regarding precip types (rain vs. snow) as temperatures will be marginal. The bottom line, late week storm threat still in play but a lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast. We continued to stay close to the NBM with this forecast update and carry likely POPs for Thursday into Thursday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol. Counterpoint- need ridic snow maps just to yield mood flakes in our area 9 times out of 10… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Counterpoint- need ridic snow maps just to yield mood flakes in our area 9 times out of 10… I suppose it's debatable how much value they have at range, but the context of my post in response to WxUSAF's post was more about expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 6Z EPS 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS And still on going...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks cold for Christmas behind our coastal storm. Yep, it looks really cold, and it may have staying power as the - AO regime looks to remain in control. Snowcover will help with the overall cold expanse. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: And still on going...... Yup, this is looking like a forum divider, probably too warm in the eastern sections for most of the storm, but chance for our first flakes (and maybe more) in the N and W burbs is inside 6 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WPC maps does not seem to favor the sheared out version GFS has been showing (although 6z took a step towards a coastal redevelopment that the Euro and CMC has been showing). Their discussion favors the Euro at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now