nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: What sight do you use for the Canadian? I use tropical tidbits usually (sometimes pivotal). Lots of free data out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 This is not the same gfs especially after the upgrade. Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory. I've actually read that this new upgrade to the gfs has worse verification scores than the previous gfs version... I know this is a major shift in the hemispherical weather pattern but there has been very little continuity this week with the gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro is…interesting… ain’t no GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro smoke show NW of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro is close for the NW Crew.. It's south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro is…interesting… ain’t no GFS Another step south/colder. Gotta wonder if everything either trends to the giant squash of the GFS, or they and the GFS meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro is close for the NW Crew.. It's south of 12z. Close? It’s there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z EURO: Frozen precipitation starts early Thursday am and continues for two days. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Low stalls. Still snowing at hr 156 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Still going late Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Close? It’s there. Was close, before the low stalled over ocean city for 18hrs. Central PA Demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Now that’s a solution right there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro pretty much just went with what gfs had 0z last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 lol...Euro loves long storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z GFS for same time period…at least we have something to track within 2 weeks of Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: lol...Euro loves long storms.... Euro love me long time 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 What's also interesting are the soundings during this storm on this 00z EURO run. Mostly below zero until you reach about 950mb to the surface for the areas that are breach 32 degrees... so its a very small warm layer at the very bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Estimating the 144 and 168 low positions on google earth I'm getting a distance about 36 miles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Pretty amazing differences in the Day 10 range between EURO and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro Control is going to support the OP... lets see what the individ ensembles say in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z EPS 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Wondering now what the 6z GFS is gonna do...squash it even further? Lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Only 7 of the 50 members support the OP run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Only 7 of the 50 members support the OP run Control v. EPS mean WB 0Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I just asked the hotel where’s the iron. 2 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 LWX morning disco on the threat .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... H5 riding will briefly build in Tuesday as a 1036 mb + high remains over eastern Quebec. This will result in subsidence at the surface with dry and sunny conditions. Temps will be in the low 40s for most (30s mountains). Now for the main focus of the long term, the highly advertised storm system. There remains considerable spread between different global guidance - with the GFS having more of a suppressed/progressive wave while the Euro is much more amplified. Overall ensemble guidance continues to support the Euro with a parent ULL moving through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Northeast/offshore into the Atlantic by Friday/Saturday. Uncertainty remains regarding any coastal low formation and associated wintry precipitation. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is possible across the entire area in the late Wednesday to early Friday timeframe with higher chances along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. Will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer and confidence increases. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a long- duration upslope snow event. Models hint at 24+ hours of QPF across the mountains starting near 12Z Friday into Saturday. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern, will continue to monitor. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 6Z GFS is better this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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