CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Pretty nice Xmas eve h5 look on the 18z GEFS- 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: Probably the first day I haven't looked at ensembles for the LR pattern lmao, pattern chasing got boring after a while. What took you 14 days took me 14 years Lesson: don't be me 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty nice Xmas eve h5 look on the 18z GEFS- I'm diggin the 15-25th period in general. The clunky frustrating progression so far makes sense in general. I wasn't very optimistic for the front half of Dec when I went out of town. But I've been pretty optimistic that it will all shift into a Dec longwave patten we haven't seen since 2010. Right on time friend! You've been killing the disco last few weeks. Kept my tracking down to 5 mins a day. Go time now 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We go away and come back, all is in place Yes just got home. Seems on track I guess…we dont do complicated well so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.Makes sense, bottom line is this the reason we’re seeing GFS vs the world. Still can cut, but I doubt we see GFS complete shred scenario . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm diggin the 15-25th period in general. The clunky frustrating progression so far makes sense in general. I wasn't very optimistic for the front half of Dec when I went out of town. But I've been pretty optimistic that it will all shift into a Dec longwave patten we haven't seen since 2010. Right on time friend! You've been killing the disco last few weeks. Kept my tracking down to 5 mins a day. Go time now Thanks! Yeah I'm with ya. Although I have become slightly intrigued with the late next week event, I know the setup, the date, and my climo lol. One or more will be the likely cause of failure. With the advertised pattern progression, just beyond that threat- around the 20th and beyond- looks like the best window for much of this region to possibly get on the board. Could be fun in mid/late December for a change. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The odd bowling ball this week has pretty much everything going against us with MA rules of thumb.... ULL tracking laterally north of our latitude across the Midwest? Downhill approach? Stretched out WAA in the no lift abysss? Redeveloper track w/ SE trajectory? No deep low level cold push? Early Dec? Idk. It might snow because the ingredients are flying around but it's like hitting a 5 game NFL parlay. After that looks great. Imo- a 10 day favorable period during second half of Dec with key features in place for early season snow will probably do something. Maybe more than 1 event. Should be a lot of fun for a while for everyone who's screen name has more than 2 letters and doesnt start with J 9 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Just need to get some snow on the ground before that arctic outbreak happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 How much pattern for my backyard? TIA 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: How much pattern for my backyard? TIA Asking for a friend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Ah yes going to be typical gfs vs euro story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 At this rate it will be crushed to literal nothing on the GFS by 12z tomorrow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Good thing the SW is still offshore and has not been sampled properly yet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Catching up after a long evening. Regardless of specifics, it’s nice to see threats on the horizon and potential for a decent snow or two. That 12z 12/19 storm was a beaut. thanks for the great discussion all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: Good thing the SW is still offshore and has not been sampled properly yet. That's probably why the models are still showing a chance. 4 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Cmc still has the storm. Icy and some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Canadian progresses the closed vort east so it redevelops off the Delmarva from northern OH. GFS holds the energy back over the Plains and the vort weakens as it heads east so no redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs has more snow for me tomorrow than Thursday now 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 GFS was king last winter. Would really like to see it in our camp. Not going to be bummed if we miss this first one, as there look to be several after it. We have a good chance of cashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Canadian’s progression of next week’s storm is an upslope dream for the mountains next weekend. Ski resorts would be thrilled with that outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: GFS was king last winter. Would really like to see it in our camp. Not going to be bummed if we miss this first one, as there look to be several after it. We have a good chance of cashing. This is not the same gfs especially after the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Canadian’s progression of next week’s storm is an upslope dream for the mountains next weekend. Ski resorts would be thrilled with that outcome. What sight do you use for the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: What sight do you use for the Canadian? I use tropical tidbits usually (sometimes pivotal). Lots of free data out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 This is not the same gfs especially after the upgrade. Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory. I've actually read that this new upgrade to the gfs has worse verification scores than the previous gfs version... I know this is a major shift in the hemispherical weather pattern but there has been very little continuity this week with the gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro is…interesting… ain’t no GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro smoke show NW of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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