December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Interstate]

Just now, Ji said:

Shredded...

Yep... I was going to say the GFS looks totally different on the H5 maps.

[Amped]

18z GFS  even less 500mb energy ejecting.   I didn't know a Dakotas cutoff low in December was a thing

[TSSN+]

Sucks but gives 1-3” of snow so I’d take it lol 

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

18z GFS  even less 500mb energy ejecting.   I didn't know a Dakotas cutoff low in December was a thing

Just about a zonal flow on this run

[CAPE]

If this were to be the ultimate outcome, I will take an inch or 2 at this juncture.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

If this were to be the ultimate outcome, I will take an inch or 2 at this juncture.

Goddamnf*cking right.

Get on the board and usher in some cold, then see what happens after that.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I grew up in South Jersey, and I recall being excited by storms coming in from the west or northwest that were progged to reform because that usually meant we'd get some snow. ittle did I know way back then that NE would get absolutely clobbered by them or else my enthusiasm might have ben dampened a bit.  

I have the same recollections. And the more you know, the less enthusiasm there is. Where did you grow up? I'm from Vineland 

[midatlanticweather]

What happened to the system!

[mattie g]

While I know that many here don’t care about weather outside of our backyards (i usually feel the same), I love seeing so many storms coming in off the Pacific and dousing the West Coast.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

I have the same recollections. And the more you know, the less enthusiasm there is. Where did you grow up? I'm from Vineland 

That’s awesome! I played plenty of baseball and soccer in Vineland. I grew up in Camden/Pennsauken and most of my family is still scattered all across South Jersey.

[CAPE]

The GFS simulation likely isn't the ultimate outcome. That setup at the surface tho. I mean, the wall of HP with the low off the Canadian Maritimes. Goddamn. Slight adjustments..

[Amped]

GFS issue in a nutshell. Look at the pacific wave digging  off the California coast.   GFS is way east of the Euro and every other model.  It uses that system  to create some sort of a Fugiwara effect that traps the 500mb low in the northern plains.

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Progressive then cold/dry. Welcome La Nina 

Ok enough of the negativity dude.

Your Eagles are 11-1.

[nj2va]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this were to be the ultimate outcome, I will take an inch or 2 at this juncture.

This is a common sense, level-headed post.  Unfortunately, this place isn’t full of it.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is a common sense, level-headed post.  Unfortunately, this place isn’t full of it.

Strangest MECS in history or this is a BUsT!1!!11!!1

[Maestrobjwa]

Looking at the parade of highs coming down the middle the country on this run...I'm gonna guess if we squeeze a couple inches out of next week (great start for December) we gonna need the block to relax a bit before we get something a little more. Man what we wouldn't give to have an STJ with this block! But such ain't the nina way, lol But a few inches in December is still a nice bonus!

[Maestrobjwa]

Thought I'd transfer this here since it applies:

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would argue it's even more sheared in this run, actually..  It's completely rushed into oblivion promptly after 102 to 108 hours....within a day it's completely been destructively interfered down to a shear axis. 

I've never seen that before.    It's as though it has brought the entire Ferril trade band all the way down 45 to 50 N.   It has an easterly jet at 500 mb from SE Canada to lower B.C.

My personal assumption is these runs are in error ... but who knows. It's an abrupt change ...nooormally that's a red flag in itself, but model wildness isn't uncommon in the extended. Also, the NAO is a suppression factor.  I think though doing this, that abruptly on D5 is a little more odd than normal though, particularly when the ensemble mean is divorced from that idea, and cross guidance doesn't agree much either.   Strange...  some conflicting arguments here, but it seems the weight is against.   That above is about as suppressed as is imaginably possible within Terran physics - mooshed to non existence.

 

[Ji]

Ok enough of the negativity dude.
Your Eagles are 11-1.

1-1 against the redskins though

[Lowershoresadness]

Uranus is in full retrograde. The bury is ready for any warm nose that cometh

[midatlanticweather]

 

[Heisy]

WB 18Z GEFS for late week.

That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues.

GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred


.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues.

GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred


.

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

What do we need to root for then lol?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS (coming out in pieces)

[CAPE]

Just now, Chris78 said:

What do we need to root for then lol?

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

Thanks for the response. 

So basically good luck lol. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.

Exactly. Perfectly stated.

[nj2va]

Fun to be able to track something at least even if it’s just some mood snow TV. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Fun to be able to track something at least even if it’s just some mood snow TV. 

Yeah especially after a month+ of pattern chasing.