psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens. 1 hour ago, Ji said: there are so many ways to fail...even when things look good! 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away All this... There is a path here, but its narrow because the amount of confluence needed to force a system under us starting out that far north is so extreme its also likely to shred the system if thing's don't go exactly right. We saw this a few times back in 2021 where a system originally supposed to cut way north ended up shredded to nothing by the time it got to us. Does not mean it can't work out...but I still think our best bet would be for the system to kinda split and get a healthy front runner wave into the CAD rather then having the energy come out more consolidated and trying to slide under the block. Yea that has bigger upside...but more often then not either the primary mucks up the mid levels OR if there is enough confluence the system gets shredded and washes out. But I am not pessimistic overall... this first wave COULD work...but I think there are likely to be better opportunities later. If we do get any significant snow from this first threat I consider it a bonus. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy. The setup leading into it is nowhere near identical (in the sense that we're dealing with a major Midwest storm as depicted on the models) but the lack of major costal development and angle of precipitation as shown on the GFS heavily reminds me of 12/16/10, another event where an episode of blocking was becoming established. To my memory that was a clean 1-3" during the daytime, and a nice early sendoff into the winter break. I have yet to look at the h500 comparisons though, but the PNA was not all that favorable for that month either. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: And give the wedding location in lat/lon map coordinates? Nope, NAD 1983 StatePlane Maryland FIPS 1900 (US Feet) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 NAD1983 is a godless Communist plot. In my house we stick to NAD27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Nope, NAD 1983 StatePlane Maryland FIPS 1900 (US Feet) 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: NAD1983 is a godless Communist plot. In my house we stick to NAD27. Look at these geoid nerds. NAD27 rules tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Great pull @Cobalt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 58 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing But Ji...does any amount of snow actually make you happy? If you weren't happy in 2009-10 (correct if I'm wrong) then...what will? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro op run disagrees with GFS on the CAD at 120H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro keeps the primary low and ULL much stronger than gfs or even the GGEM. That has to weaken if we want any frozen precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro op run disagrees with GFS on the CAD at 120H.Dr no....at least it's the outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro looks somewhat similar to the cmc. Not an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Euro op run disagrees with GFS on the CAD at 120H. Dr no....at least it's the outlier I don't think it was a complete no. Overall colder and further south with the transfer than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro keeps the primary low and ULL much stronger than gfs or even the GGEM. That has to weaken if we want any frozen precip. Still a good trend from the 0z run, has accumulating snow near the Mason-Dixon line instead of in upstate New York. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Rather than focusing on each model run's exact depiction of the storm, at this point, it's best to look at the trends of each model over the past 48 hours, and just about every run for each of the major models has trended south. Not sure we are done trending south either due to the strength of the block and the spacing between the two storms. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't think it was a complete no. Overall colder and further south with the transfer than 0z 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Still a good trend from the 0z run, has accumulating snow near the Mason-Dixon line instead of in upstate New York. Yes true. Big jump south and weaker with the ULL. Just nowhere near as dramatic as GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Pretty solid jump to snowy this run. 0z had pretty much no snow except into NY this run has it into northern MD also pretty decent ice. Nice move. Keep it going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Jeez, I spoke too soon earlier. Now the GFS is giving some love to Richmond twice. Gotta love it, hopefully this actually holds together. We'll see at the 18z, where everything always falls apart down here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z GFS is gonna do it at HR252. The primary low at 500mb washed out and transfers everything to the coast. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: The setup leading into it is nowhere near identical (in the sense that we're dealing with a major Midwest storm as depicted on the models) but the lack of major costal development and angle of precipitation as shown on the GFS heavily reminds me of 12/16/10, another event where an episode of blocking was becoming established. To my memory that was a clean 1-3" during the daytime, and a nice early sendoff into the winter break. I have yet to look at the h500 comparisons though, but the PNA was not all that favorable for that month either. I'd go with that, around 6" fell out this way if memory serves me well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes true. Big jump south and weaker with the ULL. Just nowhere near as dramatic as GFS. yep--took a closer look. the trend was good but the outcome for 12z was still not what we want but it does look like this coming week will be our first chance for prologned winter weather(more than 10 minutes worth haha) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing? It was JBs turn to draw maps today 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing? Better than the opposite at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing? 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing? Shit's about to get real. This pattern is no joke. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and then becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS There's all kinds of weird stuff happening on that run. Look at some stuff going on off the NE coast with lows retrograding/reforming well to the southwest. Pretty wild. 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area. They are almost always wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot. I know that folks generally think that Philly gets blasted by Miller Bs, but in reality they usually don't. They do get snow from them, but those storms usually mature too late to get Philly into the good stuff. Better than smoking cirrus like we do, but they don't usually get snows like they do from New York and to the N and NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The pants, they be a-tentin'!!! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: There's all kinds of weird stuff happening on that run. Look at some stuff going on off the NE coast with lows retrograding/reforming well to the southwest. Pretty wild. I know that folks generally think that Philly gets blasted by Miller Bs, but in reality they usually don't. They do get snow from them, but those storms usually mature too late to get Philly into the good stuff. Better than smoking cirrus like we do, but not like they do from New York an tot he N and NE. The moral is, the farther N you go generally does better with miller b's. There are exceptions of course like anything but thats a pretty good rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 What did I miss, I was at Guinness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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