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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Its basically as if we actually have too much blocking in the north atlantic but not enough in Central Canada to force storms to track further south and not deal with these Miller B's/coastal redevelopments.

It’s more a function of having a -PNA with monster Atlantic side blocking. Storm is jacked coming out of the Rockies and then starts to get sheared and shredded by the Atlantic blocking. Gets pushed south and then a coastal redevelopment of some kind happens. A zillion moving parts here so expect very little consistency.

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No way am I sweating details this far out, especially since both the Icon and Canadian showed an actual coastal, but I'm intrigued by what the GFS just did. It's pretty cool to see a flow of moisture coming at us from the NW, up and over CAD. Instead of a flood of warm air pushing from the SW that threatens to erode our CAD, we have the mechanisms in place to reinforce the cold air and because we get some redevelopment south of us and we have flow coming from the NW we're not threatened with the mids being overwhelmed with warm air.

Whether this happens or not, it's just kind of a cool thing to see play out on a model.

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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Incoming on GFS? 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm.  the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm.  the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north.

Old forecasting rule was 3 to 4 isobars ahead of the storm it meant the Gulf was open for business. Looks like health blocking in Canada and the Atlantic at 500mb at HR240 ahead of the storm. That's nice.

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3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Did you just make a call for a Miller A???

 

 

I'm sure @WEATHER53 has some explanations.

Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area.  They are almost always  wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot. 

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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)!

Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know :lol:). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol

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