WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 If you want to play that game, a GGEM/GFS blend would be [cousin Eddie voice] really nice [/cousin Eddie voice]. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 No way am I sweating details this far out, especially since both the Icon and Canadian showed an actual coastal, but I'm intrigued by what the GFS just did. It's pretty cool to see a flow of moisture coming at us from the NW, up and over CAD. Instead of a flood of warm air pushing from the SW that threatens to erode our CAD, we have the mechanisms in place to reinforce the cold air and because we get some redevelopment south of us and we have flow coming from the NW we're not threatened with the mids being overwhelmed with warm air. Whether this happens or not, it's just kind of a cool thing to see play out on a model. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 ^not bad. Anyone got that map with individual low placement for the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 A little more spread and a bit further offshore than 6z but not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Take this and run: 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Take this and run:I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing 1 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Incoming on GFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Let's not sleep on the 19th - 21st on the GFS either. High pressure is locked in nicely ahead of a gulf storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Incoming on GFS? looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm. the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm. the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north. Old forecasting rule was 3 to 4 isobars ahead of the storm it meant the Gulf was open for business. Looks like health blocking in Canada and the Atlantic at 500mb at HR240 ahead of the storm. That's nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: You mean ABSCOND, I believe? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 This board is in true form!! It is what I love! The Ensemble looked pretty good. Nice to see. But the shredder has been very capable this fall of taking 1 to 3 inch rain storms and giving me a quarter inch as we got close. That will continue the way it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Incoming on GFS? Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! I wonder if Mappy's wedding invitations listed the ceremony time in z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! I land at 9pm at dulles on 12/19. This is the perfect storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Did you just make a call for a Miller A??? I'm sure @WEATHER53 has some explanations. Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area. They are almost always wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I wonder if Mappy's wedding invitations listed the ceremony time in z. And give the wedding location in lat/lon map coordinates? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol BAM storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, cbmclean said: BAM storm. Nailed it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol We'll have to hyphenate it, a'la the famous "Washington-Jefferson storm." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: BAM storm. Emeril Lagasse says hello! Kick it up a notch, too!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens. 1 hour ago, Ji said: there are so many ways to fail...even when things look good! 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away All this... There is a path here, but its narrow because the amount of confluence needed to force a system under us starting out that far north is so extreme its also likely to shred the system if thing's don't go exactly right. We saw this a few times back in 2021 where a system originally supposed to cut way north ended up shredded to nothing by the time it got to us. Does not mean it can't work out...but I still think our best bet would be for the system to kinda split and get a healthy front runner wave into the CAD rather then having the energy come out more consolidated and trying to slide under the block. Yea that has bigger upside...but more often then not either the primary mucks up the mid levels OR if there is enough confluence the system gets shredded and washes out. But I am not pessimistic overall... this first wave COULD work...but I think there are likely to be better opportunities later. If we do get any significant snow from this first threat I consider it a bonus. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy. The setup leading into it is nowhere near identical (in the sense that we're dealing with a major Midwest storm as depicted on the models) but the lack of major costal development and angle of precipitation as shown on the GFS heavily reminds me of 12/16/10, another event where an episode of blocking was becoming established. To my memory that was a clean 1-3" during the daytime, and a nice early sendoff into the winter break. I have yet to look at the h500 comparisons though, but the PNA was not all that favorable for that month either. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: And give the wedding location in lat/lon map coordinates? Nope, NAD 1983 StatePlane Maryland FIPS 1900 (US Feet) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 NAD1983 is a godless Communist plot. In my house we stick to NAD27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Nope, NAD 1983 StatePlane Maryland FIPS 1900 (US Feet) 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: NAD1983 is a godless Communist plot. In my house we stick to NAD27. Look at these geoid nerds. NAD27 rules tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Great pull @Cobalt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now