CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 There are some fundamental elements in place that we want ahead of a potential winter storm.. Massive strong HP to the north of the Great Lakes- not no stinking GL low- with lower pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week? I believe you are correct. However his avatar hasn't chaned to the "snow doggie" yet, or he's behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 CMC with a cold ice storm for the area, which is another trend towards a colder solution with a better costal low placement 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Couple of thoughts: 1.) It's //possible// the primary low drifts into MI and weakens such that we don't get our CAD eroded fast and bootleg our way into a legit wedge of CAD. Then the primary takes over and we get some frozen off that. A scenario like that would feature, mix/snow thump, then mix/ice, then snow. It's a odd way to win and I've seen it happen once or twice, but you need a legit airmass in place. 2.) Ideally, with a setup like this, you want to see the primary go up into Kentucky and die fast, with a quick handoff to a coastal low that deepens and stops the bleeding at the mid levels. IMO, the first step towards this solution would be to see the surface low over Texas instead of Denver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 LWX D6 winter weather threat: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: CMC with a cold ice storm for the area, which is another trend towards a colder solution with a better costal low placement CMC was all rain last run. the plot thickens… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 One way a setup like this could work...is if the primary trends weaker and more disconnected...and we get a front runner wave. We have seen that setup lead to a modest snow/ice event before. Obviously the 6z GFS 12z ICON idea of a primary dying and a secondary bombing is ideal...but also pretty rare. The thing we don't want is for there to be a more consolidated/stronger primary that would wreck the mid levels pretty fast given how far west its tracking initially. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS colder than 6z through 120… can’t believe I’m doing PBP of this 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS has snow breaking out on the afternoon of the fourteenth…primary all the way back in IOWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS colder than 6z through 120… can’t believe I’m doing PBP of this Damn.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS colder than 6z through 120… can’t believe I’m doing PBP of this pbb makes sense when the storm is 6-7 days away! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Legit (and seemingly deepening) CAD poking down into NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One way a setup like this could work...is if the primary trends weaker and more disconnected...and we get a front runner wave. We have seen that setup lead to a modest snow/ice event before. Obviously the 6z GFS 12z ICON idea of a primary dying and a secondary bombing is ideal...but also pretty rare. The thing we don't want is for there to be a more consolidated/stronger primary that would wreck the mid levels pretty fast given how far west its tracking initially. It looks like the 12z GFS could be trending in that direction with the primary low becoming stretched out the middle of the country as there is some front end snow due to CAD over the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ice storm in central NC.. on the north fringe of snow here lol. That HP is a wall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 If those highs are not budging I can't see how that LP can slam its way into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 you can feel a big dog is brewing 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z GFS op has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up to 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event. Yeah I kinda like where this is at. I am getting slightly interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Ice storm in central NC.. on the north fringe of snow here lol. That HP is a wall. i mean this was what we were expecting when the models were going crazy with the pattern change 2 weeks ago right lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 No way for the LP to climb once it develops….but very trackable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Ji said: i mean this was what we were expecting when the models were going crazy with the pattern change 2 weeks ago right lol? Not exactly this, but in general lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Primary in Iowa and snow to the NC line. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far. Yes. I like it. We're D5/D6, but this is nice. Time for the ensembles. Just now, WxUSAF said: Primary in Iowa and snow to the NC line. Insanity. See my previous post and bullet #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The last few storms been smashed to hell. This one starting to get the same treatment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS having some dispersion issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Biggest change out west wrt pna. Buries energy out in the West this run....little to no pna ridging vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens. there are so many ways to fail...even when things look good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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