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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter.

Obviously my memory isnt what it once was :huh:

I do recall LC that year (he was a local philly met at that time) noting repeatedly about some volcanic ash that year which played a role in the atmosphere pattern over the N hemi. 

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'll roll the dice anytime with a -AO/-NAO (and west based) look like that.  And I like seeing that in mid December vs early December...those 2ish weeks (and more) helps the coastal plain tremendously.

the only time of year that someone won't come in and say something about the sun angle!  but seriously, for folks like me inside the beltway, the UHI is murder and our streets rarely ever cool off for a lot of snow to stick, except for sustained 29F and below snow events. And when there has been sustained cold prior to the storm.

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm

that pattern is mint

But to answer your question, I personally want to see it under 120 hrs....that look verbatim. Agreed tho,  that is about as close to an ideal look as we are gonna get on a means at that range.

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23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm

that pattern is mint

You are not the weenie! It is a weenie's dream post! :) - I, a weenie, love the post! AND, I agree - from my limited Weenie knowledge, that the map is beautiful! The only weenie part of it is that it is too far away to put a ton of weight in it yet! I love it, but do I believe it? I am not sure, yet!

No offense meant to you at all! Thank you for posting here and providing insights! 

 

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

You are not the weenie! It is a weenie's dream post! :) - I, a weenie, love the post! AND, I agree - from my limited Weenie knowledge, that the map is beautiful! The only weenie part of it is that it is too far away to put a ton of weight in it yet! I love it, but do I believe it? I am not sure, yet!

No offense meant to you at all! Thank you for posting here and providing insights! 

 

haha none taken! i’ve just seen some people doubting how good that pattern can be for whatever reason. it’s an amazing look and we want to see it continue to move forward in time

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm

that pattern is mint

It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest.

Liking it CAPE

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3 hours ago, Paleocene said:

the only time of year that someone won't come in and say something about the sun angle!  but seriously, for folks like me inside the beltway, the UHI is murder and our streets rarely ever cool off for a lot of snow to stick, except for sustained 29F and below snow events. And when there has been sustained cold prior to the storm.

Our problems with UHI / non sticking events (when we’re early/late in the season) IMO are the marginal temps (32-33) and light precip.  Last year’s January storm happened the day after it was 65 (I was in shorts outside on Sunday) but we had hot and heavy rates for several hours Monday morning which dropped 11” here, and had no problem sticking to the streets, etc.  

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