Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter. Obviously my memory isnt what it once was I do recall LC that year (he was a local philly met at that time) noting repeatedly about some volcanic ash that year which played a role in the atmosphere pattern over the N hemi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He’s referring to the MJO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/mjo_chi.shtml 200mb velocity potential is termed “chi” and “k=1” refers to wavenumber one. Thanks as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 EPS is absolutely gorgeous. this is primed for a high end snowfall event anywhere from BOS to RIC around the 15th through late month 35 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 I'll roll the dice anytime with a -AO/-NAO (and west based) look like that. And I like seeing that in mid December vs early December...those 2ish weeks (and more) helps the coastal plain tremendously. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'll roll the dice anytime with a -AO/-NAO (and west based) look like that. And I like seeing that in mid December vs early December...those 2ish weeks (and more) helps the coastal plain tremendously. the only time of year that someone won't come in and say something about the sun angle! but seriously, for folks like me inside the beltway, the UHI is murder and our streets rarely ever cool off for a lot of snow to stick, except for sustained 29F and below snow events. And when there has been sustained cold prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint 8 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is absolutely gorgeous. this is primed for a high end snowfall event anywhere from BOS to RIC around the 15th through late month I likeeeee that… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint Ooops, i thought that was a pants tent emoji 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint But to answer your question, I personally want to see it under 120 hrs....that look verbatim. Agreed tho, that is about as close to an ideal look as we are gonna get on a means at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint I’d like to see it be January during El Niño 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint You are not the weenie! It is a weenie's dream post! - I, a weenie, love the post! AND, I agree - from my limited Weenie knowledge, that the map is beautiful! The only weenie part of it is that it is too far away to put a ton of weight in it yet! I love it, but do I believe it? I am not sure, yet! No offense meant to you at all! Thank you for posting here and providing insights! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Our climo is so bad in December. I hope we can overcome it if the pattern delivers as progged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Our climo is so bad in December. I hope we can overcome it if the pattern delivers as progged. Every once in a while the D20 must come up with a critical hit. We are due, and I'm just about to go off the ledge on the GEFS/EPS/CFS and say... it's probably going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: You are not the weenie! It is a weenie's dream post! - I, a weenie, love the post! AND, I agree - from my limited Weenie knowledge, that the map is beautiful! The only weenie part of it is that it is too far away to put a ton of weight in it yet! I love it, but do I believe it? I am not sure, yet! No offense meant to you at all! Thank you for posting here and providing insights! haha none taken! i’ve just seen some people doubting how good that pattern can be for whatever reason. it’s an amazing look and we want to see it continue to move forward in time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao for those that weenied my previous post, I’m not exactly sure what else you’d want to see for a large coastal storm that pattern is mint It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest. Liking it CAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just dropping in to say I support any and all snow 12/11 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Just dropping in to say I support any and all snow 12/11 and beyond. Also, I’m sick, isolating from the family due to a Covid exposure, and bored. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Also, I’m sick, isolating from the family due to a Covid exposure, and bored. Get well or get the days of isolation past you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, I’m sick, isolating from the family due to a Covid exposure, and bored. Get well soon friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Get well or get the days of isolation past you 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Get well soon friend! Thanks y’all. RELOAD does look good long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Even though he is off by 1 for the record, it is still pretty remarkable and the GEFS is near 1060 mb. Wow ! Here is the JMA at 1065 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 I had to google “phwoar” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Crazy solutions on the ops will start showing up... Like the end of the 18z GFS this evening 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Crazy solutions on the ops will start showing up... Like the end of the 18z GFS this evening Numb Clown Fantasy Runs begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I had to google “phwoar” Ha ha , wonder is Simon calls his wife hey, phwoar... I had to Google it too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, peribonca said: Crazy solutions on the ops will start showing up... Like the end of the 18z GFS this evening Lolz Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lolz Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize. I’ve seen 987 lows track due west from the Atlantic hundreds of times…..thousands 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lolz Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize. Something something something anomalous blocking something something something its going to happen like that something snow something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 hours ago, Paleocene said: the only time of year that someone won't come in and say something about the sun angle! but seriously, for folks like me inside the beltway, the UHI is murder and our streets rarely ever cool off for a lot of snow to stick, except for sustained 29F and below snow events. And when there has been sustained cold prior to the storm. Our problems with UHI / non sticking events (when we’re early/late in the season) IMO are the marginal temps (32-33) and light precip. Last year’s January storm happened the day after it was 65 (I was in shorts outside on Sunday) but we had hot and heavy rates for several hours Monday morning which dropped 11” here, and had no problem sticking to the streets, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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