Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Global OZ Euro has the late week storm but is a rain event for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Global OZ Euro has the late week storm but is a rain event for us. It would be a nice event for interior NNE and upstate NY. We rarely fare well with an ULL in the Great Lakes. I think it would have to be an almost perfect track for even 50-75 WNW of DC/Balt...But maybe it initiates or furthers along a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 WB 0Z EPS v. GFS for late next week… something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 WB GEFS v EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS v EPS. I'm guessing that this is all a part of trying to figure out the strength of that block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm guessing that this is all a part of trying to figure out the strength of that block... If you go back and compare the GEFS for example wrt "the block" (higher heights in the NAO), the NAO is actually waning/reloading while ridging is retrograding up top across the bridge from NAO>AO>EPO. Its quite the balancing act and all about timing. On this loop, pay attention to the trends near Greenland with ridging. Ironically, the energy underneath that we are looking at wrt any storm moves into a better looking position near us. It appears the better positioning of the energy moving thru the East is in part to some weak ridging trends centered over the Rockies also related to the retrogression of the HL "blocking" from NAO westward across Canada. You can also see a bit of a connection trying to happen with the higher heights in S Central Canada and the ridging near the Rockies. So all one big balancing/timimg act and imho not an easy way to score along the coast or the big cities in mid Dec. Prefer more of a clean wave movement along a boundary under a more stable NAO regime than trying to play the timing game as things shift around, but we just cant know yet. Just to add, the longer range EPO on steroids and weaker NAO (still negative mind you) with TPV hanging underneath has me being grateful for the colder anomalies finally, but also pondering progressive/cold/dry theme coming after next week. More on that later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Looking at the advertised evolution of the pattern mid month and beyond, with h5 +height anomalies in both the EPO and NAO space, through wave interactions (specifically the amplifying EPO upper ridge) the models are once again indicating a TPV lobe cutting off underneath and becoming displaced southward over Hudson Bay. There have been hints of this on recent runs, but it's more prominent on the 0z GEFS. That's in a good spot and sets up the possibility of a more classic sustained NAO block with colder air on our doorstep. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 On the 0z runs the GEFS and CMC ens trend the PNA to neutral/slightly positive by the 20th. EPS keeps it somewhat negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 No one should pay any attention to the 6z GFS. 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I’ll just be leaving Bali when this happens. I’m going to crawl into a bathtub and drop an iron in it. 2 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 LWX… Guidance has continued to trend slower with the mid-week system, making it more of a Thursday/Friday event. Latest 00Z guidance has trended away from a cutter low into the Great Lakes to more of a Miller B type set up with an overall deeper trough and better wave spacing. The overall trend has been a stronger high to the north as well, which in turn will allow for colder than previously forecast air to make it into the region. Will continue to monitor, but wintry precipitation is plausible areawide to end the long term, though more favorable west of the Blue Ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I’ll just be leaving Bali when this happens. I’m going to crawl into a bathtub and drop an iron in it. A GFS op run at range, but not out of the realm of possibility. I would hold off though.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: No one should pay any attention to the 6z GFS. Too late. Just did. It’s the day after the new Avatar, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 0z GEFS was already moving in the direction of a further south coastal low development. EPS as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and then becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 0z GEFS was already moving in the direction of a further south coastal low development. EPS as well. And again the trend continues noted in my previous post. Watch the NAO and watch the retrogression of +height anonalies and how the connect with the PNA centered over the Rockies. Good trend nice to see. Still timing matters as all this unfolds up top allowing this storm to evolve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Exactly as many of us have been harping on....patience because the anchoted stout NAO is pretty colors and all that jazz but it is the the start. its actually the relax/reload where we usually see storms pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I haven't looked this morning yet but I was bored yesterday and looked into the the few 12z EPS members that created a MA mauler late next week. Every single one had a much weaker ULL especially as it started to to feel the block and dive SE. 06z gfs is a good representation of this. 06z gfs with 3 snow events and what looks like a good one setting up for xmas day. Snow on snow xmas day? Come on! EJ would lose his mind... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and the becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS A hell of a lot would have to go right. The timing of the ocean low that merges with another vortex squeezed SE and becomes the 50-50, and the spacing between it and the low that is/becomes the storm is one critical factor. Need enough confluence, which impacts the surface high strength, and ofc a bunch of other subtle interactions we just cant know at this point. It could work!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: A hell of a lot would have to go right. The timing of the ocean low that merges with another vortex squeezed SE and becomes the 50-50, and the spacing between it and the low that is/becomes the storm is one critical factor. Need enough confluence, which impacts the surface high strength, and ofc a bunch of other subtle interactions we just cant know at this point. It could work!! What could possibly go wrong….:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 All jokes aside, what matters is starting to see ways to win. If the block is as advertised, feels like rather than primary cutting to chicago and re-developing off the Carolinas that maybe a primary into KY and then a jump to the coast would start to show up on some of the modeling as within the envelope of solutions… 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6z is a weenie run...chance after chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: A hell of a lot would have to go right. The timing of the ocean low that merges with another vortex squeezed SE and becomes the 50-50, and the spacing between it and the low that is/becomes the storm is one critical factor. Need enough confluence, which impacts the surface high strength, and ofc a bunch of other subtle interactions we just cant know at this point. It could work!! Well I’ll say this…I feel confident we haven’t seen the final solution yet for that storm. And crazy things happen with the kind of blocking advertised for next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Santa wants to come to town. Thats a woofer right there: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well I’ll say this…I feel confident we haven’t seen the final solution yet for that storm. And crazy things happen with the kind of blocking advertised for next week. Exactly. Gfs at 130ish hours ago had a potent coastal for today with 60kt winds along the coast. Sunshine out my window here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Yes please on next weeks storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Waking up to watch the 6z GFS makes we wonder if I have enough beer in the beer fridge. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 We are talking nationwide cold coming up with a gradual step down with temps, expect higher snowfall coverage in North America as we get closer to Christmas, and lower lattitude storm tracks. Its been a long time waiting for holiday cold and tracking. Rejoice 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and then becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS We can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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