December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[AtlanticWx]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

You're not concerned with the EPS at the end of it's run? It shows - PNA and most significant snowfall would be well to our North and West.  Favors the West and Midwest. Of course it's one run , one model. Total speculation. Granted - EPO on the EPS,  but not sure we benefit snow-wise. 

It is at the very end of its run to begin with and GEFS and GEPS both agree in a poleward ridge supporting a -EPO/+PNA to neutral PNA

GEFS and GEPS connect the troughing between Hawaii and the Aleutians, sending the ridge further west and more poleward (better for us, more Pac ridging) while EPS fails to "bridge" them resulting in an okay but unfavorable positioning of the -EPO ridge. I wouldn't be worried, right now at least.

[nj2va]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

You're not concerned with the EPS at the end of it's run? It shows - PNA and most significant snowfall would be well to our North and West.  Favors the West and Midwest. Of course it's one run , one model. Total speculation. Granted - EPO on the EPS,  but not sure we benefit snow-wise. 

I’m not even looking at the end 384H ensembles.  Let’s also just focus on what’s in the MR to “early” LR before we start talking about long range ensembles.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m not even looking at the end 384H ensembles.  Let’s also just focus on what’s in the MR to “early” LR before we start talking about long range ensembles.

I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet

I’m more interested in the CFS for December 2024.  

[Terpeast]

Interesting trend for the dec 16 cutter. Rain-snow line was all the way up in michigan/canada just a few runs ago. Now it’s closer to the m/d line. 

that’s the gfs op though. No idea on ens or what the euro says

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting trend for the dec 16 cutter. Rain-snow line was all the way up in michigan/canada just a few runs ago. Now it’s closer to the m/d line. 

that’s the gfs op though. No idea on ens or what the euro says

Amazing what a stout block can do.

[North Balti Zen]

35 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet

You with your facts and what not 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over?

Right before Xmas that year there was a major storm in the NC coastal plain.  13 inches on Cape Hatteras.  15 inches in Wilmington.  Only had about 4 inches at my area in Cumberland County but it was still nice.  I have a distinct memory of playing in the snow and sleet on Christmas Eve.  Oddly enough I have no memory of the subsequent Xmas.   I also have no memory of the pattern flip in January but I am told it was epic in a bad way.

[gymengineer]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over?

It did snap back for a cold, active period from late March into early April. Too late in the calendar for much road sticking, but there were 3 accumulating snow events nevertheless all the way down into urban areas, including one in April. IAD recorded 10.4” in March and April. 

With temps so marginal, though, a repeat of that pattern probably wouldn’t result in all 3 events having snow in the urban corridor today. 

[Wonderdog]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Amazing what a stout block can do.

Sounds like a stout block could also be a real nightmare for the Mets on this board, wrt forecasting.

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

We always spend between Christmas and New Years there - way too far out to talk specifics and chances but pattern leading up to Christmas is looking really nice so far.  

 

We should see snow for Christmas unlike the rest of the poor saps on this forum.  Oh well, know your climo.  

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over?

I was living in Burtonsville then and that was the December that I almost got arrested for ice skating on Rocky Gorge.

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was living in Burtonsville then and that was the December that I almost got arrested for ice skating on Rocky Gorge.

Yea don't do that. We fish a body or two out a year from people who try to skate there.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

This is one of those threats that could trend in our favor

I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south.

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south.

Especially in your location, better chance at front end frozen from this. But I have a feeling the massive cutter depicted two days ago will continually to evolve like it already has. 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

stout block

I thought you said stout bock and I was all in. Of course I am always all in.

[Cobalt]

GFS is definitely feeling the block

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS is definitely feeling the block

No kidding. I mean...bruh...ain't never seen a cutter modeled like that, lol (of course I'm just an amateur, haha)

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS is definitely feeling the block

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No kidding. I mean...bruh...ain't never seen a cutter modeled like that, lol (of course I'm just an amateur, haha)

Yeah, it usually goes the other way. 

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, it usually goes the other way. 

sold! 

[DarkSharkWX]

GEFS has been trending with a stronger CAD push for the 16th-17th storm. Encouraging trends to see

[WEATHER53]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman @CAPE @Ian or anyone else with a photographic memory or with a good database: have we ever had a -EPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern in a La Niña December? Or any La Niña winter month? And if so, what did they produce?

I commented earlier in the winter outlook that this winter would not  behave Nina like. I looked back to 1980 and could not find an exact match to what you asked 

 

i 

[clskinsfan]

40 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

GEFS has been trending with a stronger CAD push for the 16th-17th storm. Encouraging trends to see

Yes. It has been trending colder at the surface. But what I am seeing is the GFS starting to figure out that a 1000+ vort isnt cutting into that wall to the north. It is freaking out about it. If I had to bet right now I would say that storm ends up south of us. We'll see if its the stout bock talking...or the stout block over the next couple of days. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS for late upcoming work week.

[Weather Will]

Global OZ Euro has the late week storm but is a rain event for us.   

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS v. GFS for late next week… something to watch.

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS v EPS.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEFS v EPS.

I'm guessing that this is all a part of trying to figure out the strength of that block...

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm guessing that this is all a part of trying to figure out the strength of that block...

If you go back and compare the GEFS for example wrt "the block" (higher heights in the NAO), the NAO is actually waning/reloading while ridging is retrograding up top across the bridge from NAO>AO>EPO. Its quite the balancing act and all about timing. On this loop, pay attention to the trends near Greenland with ridging. Ironically, the energy underneath that we are looking at wrt any storm  moves into a better looking position near us. 

It appears the better positioning of the energy moving thru the East is in part to some weak ridging trends centered over the Rockies also related to the retrogression of the HL "blocking" from NAO westward across Canada. You can also see a bit of a connection trying to happen with the higher heights in S Central Canada and the ridging near the Rockies.

So all one big balancing/timimg act and imho not an easy way to score along the coast or the big cities in mid Dec. Prefer more of a clean wave movement along a boundary under a more stable NAO regime than trying to play the timing game as things shift around, but we just cant know yet.

Just to add, the longer range EPO on steroids and weaker NAO (still negative mind you) with TPV hanging underneath has me being grateful for the colder anomalies finally, but also pondering progressive/cold/dry theme coming after next week. More on that later.