CAPE Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: We always spend between Christmas and New Years there - way too far out to talk specifics and chances but pattern leading up to Christmas is looking really nice so far. Pretty good odds out that way there will be multiple snow chances leading up to and including Xmas, given how the currently depicted pattern looks. Whatever falls should mostly be able to stick around during that period. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over? Affirmative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Last several runs for next week’s cutter/redeveloper. This is one of those threats that could trend in our favor in the MR with the block and 50/50 low that @WxUSAF also mentioned. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty good odds out that way there will be multiple snow chances leading up to and including Xmas, given how the currently depicted pattern looks. Whatever falls should mostly be able to stick around during that period. You're not concerned with the EPS at the end of it's run? It shows - PNA and most significant snowfall would be well to our North and West. Favors the West and Midwest. Of course it's one run , one model. Total speculation. Granted - EPO on the EPS, but not sure we benefit snow-wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over? I was coming home to southern MD from college for Thanksgiving of '89, so I can assure you we got snow The rain changed to snow around Lake Anna on my way up I-95. It was a very long drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, frd said: You're not concerned with the EPS at the end of it's run? It shows - PNA and most significant snowfall would be well to our North and West. Favors the West and Midwest. Of course it's one run , one model. Total speculation. Granted - EPO on the EPS, but not sure we benefit snow-wise. It is at the very end of its run to begin with and GEFS and GEPS both agree in a poleward ridge supporting a -EPO/+PNA to neutral PNA GEFS and GEPS connect the troughing between Hawaii and the Aleutians, sending the ridge further west and more poleward (better for us, more Pac ridging) while EPS fails to "bridge" them resulting in an okay but unfavorable positioning of the -EPO ridge. I wouldn't be worried, right now at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 31 minutes ago, frd said: You're not concerned with the EPS at the end of it's run? It shows - PNA and most significant snowfall would be well to our North and West. Favors the West and Midwest. Of course it's one run , one model. Total speculation. Granted - EPO on the EPS, but not sure we benefit snow-wise. I’m not even looking at the end 384H ensembles. Let’s also just focus on what’s in the MR to “early” LR before we start talking about long range ensembles. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m not even looking at the end 384H ensembles. Let’s also just focus on what’s in the MR to “early” LR before we start talking about long range ensembles. I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet I’m more interested in the CFS for December 2024. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Interesting trend for the dec 16 cutter. Rain-snow line was all the way up in michigan/canada just a few runs ago. Now it’s closer to the m/d line. that’s the gfs op though. No idea on ens or what the euro says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Interesting trend for the dec 16 cutter. Rain-snow line was all the way up in michigan/canada just a few runs ago. Now it’s closer to the m/d line. that’s the gfs op though. No idea on ens or what the euro says Amazing what a stout block can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 35 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean technically the early range hasn't even happened yet You with your facts and what not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over? Right before Xmas that year there was a major storm in the NC coastal plain. 13 inches on Cape Hatteras. 15 inches in Wilmington. Only had about 4 inches at my area in Cumberland County but it was still nice. I have a distinct memory of playing in the snow and sleet on Christmas Eve. Oddly enough I have no memory of the subsequent Xmas. I also have no memory of the pattern flip in January but I am told it was epic in a bad way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over? It did snap back for a cold, active period from late March into early April. Too late in the calendar for much road sticking, but there were 3 accumulating snow events nevertheless all the way down into urban areas, including one in April. IAD recorded 10.4” in March and April. With temps so marginal, though, a repeat of that pattern probably wouldn’t result in all 3 events having snow in the urban corridor today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Amazing what a stout block can do. Sounds like a stout block could also be a real nightmare for the Mets on this board, wrt forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: We always spend between Christmas and New Years there - way too far out to talk specifics and chances but pattern leading up to Christmas is looking really nice so far. We should see snow for Christmas unlike the rest of the poor saps on this forum. Oh well, know your climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over? I was living in Burtonsville then and that was the December that I almost got arrested for ice skating on Rocky Gorge. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I was living in Burtonsville then and that was the December that I almost got arrested for ice skating on Rocky Gorge. Yea don't do that. We fish a body or two out a year from people who try to skate there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: This is one of those threats that could trend in our favor I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south. Especially in your location, better chance at front end frozen from this. But I have a feeling the massive cutter depicted two days ago will continually to evolve like it already has. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: stout block I thought you said stout bock and I was all in. Of course I am always all in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GFS is definitely feeling the block 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS is definitely feeling the block No kidding. I mean...bruh...ain't never seen a cutter modeled like that, lol (of course I'm just an amateur, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS is definitely feeling the block 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No kidding. I mean...bruh...ain't never seen a cutter modeled like that, lol (of course I'm just an amateur, haha) Yeah, it usually goes the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, it usually goes the other way. sold! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS has been trending with a stronger CAD push for the 16th-17th storm. Encouraging trends to see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman @CAPE @Ian or anyone else with a photographic memory or with a good database: have we ever had a -EPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern in a La Niña December? Or any La Niña winter month? And if so, what did they produce? I commented earlier in the winter outlook that this winter would not behave Nina like. I looked back to 1980 and could not find an exact match to what you asked i 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: GEFS has been trending with a stronger CAD push for the 16th-17th storm. Encouraging trends to see Yes. It has been trending colder at the surface. But what I am seeing is the GFS starting to figure out that a 1000+ vort isnt cutting into that wall to the north. It is freaking out about it. If I had to bet right now I would say that storm ends up south of us. We'll see if its the stout bock talking...or the stout block over the next couple of days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS for late upcoming work week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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