December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

With the storm late weekend blowing up offshore into a big 50/50 low as @brooklynwx99 showed, suddenly our “torch” period is looking pretty chilly.  The Friday-Thursday period looks BN actually right now with some notable CAD ahead of the big cutter that hopefully ushers in the pattern change.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

[North Balti Zen]

I’m driving to Cincinnati Saturday for the bengals game on Sunday so maybe can get some pics of that headed over the mountains. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

@Ji will open the Winter 2023-24 thread soon 

[mappy]

^^^ I would take that! Enough to put down a dusting but not enough to screw up a dance recital 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

^^^ I would take that! Enough to put down a dusting but not enough to screw up a dance recital 

Just give me a solid 1" and I'm happy. Would be a great start to the season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 

 

* That miracle being Ji not complaining

In Ji's defense, he has been tolerable so far and even optimistic at times. 

Now that parallel universe fellow on the other hand....yeahhhh...

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In Ji's defense, he has been tolerable so far and even optimistic at times. 

Now that parallel universe fellow on the other hand....yeahhhh...

Second this

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Second this

i always try to start the season with normalcy and a new "ji"....it tends to fall apart between Dec 26-January 3 when all the models show an end to winter and eternal SE ridge

[H2O]

45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

Gimme gimme gimme

[Maestrobjwa]

So what y'all think? Can the Block get stronger? 

[WxUSAF]

It’s a ways out there and we’ve had this fools gold before, but I’m intrigued at the setup as next week’s cutter gets stuck under the block and slowly walks toward the 50/50 region. 

[WEATHER53]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

i always try to start the season with normalcy and a new "ji"....it tends to fall apart between Dec 26-January 3 when all the models show an end to winter and eternal SE ridge

One excellent solution to maintain reality is do not consider anything beyond 5 days as a forecast.  When a 1040 high in the right place is represented in the 5 day or less then we have something.  When it’s shown in the 7-15 day it’s useless. . 

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

I suppose there was a time when I would take the euro verbatim over the other models, but sadly those days are gone. It’s kind of a weird depiction that doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO, but here’s to hoping that this is the beginning of a trend reversal!

[WxUSAF]

Good news is that the “pattern change”, such as it’s morphed into, seems locked in on all the ensemble systems and the Op runs are generally reflecting that as well if that makes a difference to you. Next week’s big cutter plus the Siberian PV initiate this. Even earlier, this late weekend storm also seems to play a part by blowing up offshore and helping rebuild the -NAO. 
 

After the cutter, we get a -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo, but it also comes with probably a -PNA. Ironically (??), this is very much like what the pattern was supposed to be circa thanksgiving weekend. But with the -EPO, we look to get some cross polar flow and rebuild the cold in Canada. That is an overrunning/southern slider type pattern, but it can be very productive. Don’t want a big wound up low still, which could cut. Also don’t want that -PNA to dig to Baja. 
 

But seems we are getting a pattern change finally. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Coming out of a 4 sigma -NAO, this will most likely be our snowstorm. 

We usually need a Low pressure in the PNA region or GOA. Does anyone know of the stats -4> -NAO in December, rising out-of, what the stats are, I know it works very well in Jan-Feb?

[Weather Will]

Maybe some MJO help on the way also?

[aldie 22]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news is that the “pattern change”, such as it’s morphed into, seems locked in on all the ensemble systems and the Op runs are generally reflecting that as well if that makes a difference to you. Next week’s big cutter plus the Siberian PV initiate this. Even earlier, this late weekend storm also seems to play a part by blowing up offshore and helping rebuild the -NAO. 
 

After the cutter, we get a -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo, but it also comes with probably a -PNA. Ironically (??), this is very much like what the pattern was supposed to be circa thanksgiving weekend. But with the -EPO, we look to get some cross polar flow and rebuild the cold in Canada. That is an overrunning/southern slider type pattern, but it can be very productive. Don’t want a big wound up low still, which could cut. Also don’t want that -PNA to dig to Baja. 
 

But seems we are getting a pattern change finally. 

for some reason I wondered why you were laughing after you said "Also don't want that -PNA to dig"

[NorthArlington101]

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

GFS trended back toward the event existing. Snow TV for some MD folks at least. Hi-Res stuff still says *poof*.

[nj2va]

Trend the last several runs for Sunday night/Monday's system on the GFS. Looks like it's picking up on the blocking - something to keep an eye on if blocking can flex enough.

[NorthArlington101]

Trend the last several runs for Sunday night/Monday's system on the GFS. Looks like it's picking up on the blocking - something to keep an eye on if blocking can flex enough.

Been noticing the ensembles tick up a few tenths (weak, I know) during that period — thanks for sharing.

[WxUSAF]

^thats what I was saying several days (a week?) ago about storms trending south during anomalous blocking periods. Still think we’re a bridge too far for that event, but if I lived near Philly I certainly would be watching.

[SnowenOutThere]

Merry Christmas 

[Weather Will]

Yes, the Christmas miracle, yes, this is the WB GFS 18Z global model at range, but I am tired at looking at 500MB maps….so please humor me…

[Ian]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

Gimme gimme gimme

yeah dca area bullseye is gonna happen in a marginal pattern with a marginal storm 

[Ian]

Did a pattern update post today with some thoughts from Wes and Judah Cohen plus Jason making my text make sense. https://wapo.st/3W2EU4j

[Weather Will]

Honestly,  the 18Z GFS is a really fun run, storm after storm with each one a little further south,  lots of potential, we will need some luck.

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Merry Christmas 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Honestly,  the 18Z GFS is a really fun run, storm after storm with each one a little further south,  lots of potential, we will need some luck.

Luck! We always need luck! And more than ever before these days!