CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow This doesn't always work. The NAO will technically be negative, but not a true block. That chance is evaporating as we speak with a lobe of the Okhotsk TPV digging south and absorbing the vortex over Canada. Ruined by typical Nina wave interactions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 On 11/29/2022 at 9:30 PM, poolz1 said: Your mention of Bob Ryan made me a bit nostalgic . Anyone remember Gordon Barnes? Felt like he was a radio meteorologist in the 80's. Remember clearly listening to him forecast a storm 3 days in advance..."30% chance of snow" we ended up with 11" of powder. No knock on Gordon...just a sign of the times. Play it safe until its not safe. lol Gordon Barnes! That takes me back! He'd give his winter predictions in November, usually calling for a cold, snowy pattern, and he'd *always* say we were going to get a white Christmas. I don't know how he came up with that stuff, probably pulled out of his ass. After three or four years of disappointments, I got pretty annoyed at him for continually raising false hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: This doesn't always work. The NAO will technically be negative, but not a true block. That chance is evaporating as we speak with a lobe of the Okhotsk TPV digging south and absorbing the vortex over Canada. Ruined by typical Nina wave interactions. Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. (LSD experiments started in the 1960s) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. (LSD experiments started in the 1960s)It all makes sense now. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. (LSD experiments started in the 1960s) Are these 2 statements related? LSD cloud seeding? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Yeah, I could have studied atmospheric physics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I really like this pattern. Low pressure anomaly NE of Hawaii gives us snow. -PNA, like I predicted, fades, as 45N has been colder than normal since August-September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 The GEFS h5 pattern over the last few runs has trended to a better overall look across the top for the period beyond mid month. Good sign. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6z GFS op trying to give us some mood flakes next week and is that some CAD in the mountains? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 A -AO/-NAO/-EPO trifecta can get some decent cold into Canada, then into the central and eastern US. In that setup, a slightly negative to neutral PNA can facilitate disturbances entering the west coast further south, instead of exclusively relying on waves coming over the top with a stacked -EPO/+PNA ridge. That could be dry-ish. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I really like this pattern. Low pressure anomaly NE of Hawaii gives us snow. -PNA, like I predicted, fades, as 45N has been colder than normal since August-September Is this showing your ++NAO? I cant read the fine print. Coca-Cola contained cocaine until the 1940s 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 75 on 23 dec? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 75 on 23 dec? Obvs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I'll tell you what, Dec 16th sure does look good, with the orientation of this -EPO Something I've been watching is that Russia is always cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Don’t post much but check out WX South post on FB. Seems pretty excited about the upcoming pattern. I can’t post it here, file too large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. Can't really compare a smoothed/course mean to a high resolution op run extrapolated out 15 days. Load h5 on the 6z op run, put it on animate, squint a little, and notice all the red in the high latitudes with vortices flying around all over the midlatitudes. That's the general look we want. The interactions and timing among these features will change significantly from run to run and result in wildly different outcomes. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. Looks like a west coast winter so far, that's for sure lol. At this point, we're chasing the Winter solstice. It is early, though. And there's been cold around, but yea...extended biking and basketball season for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: 75 on 23 dec? For shortpump, sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 That's quite the 50/50 low that the OP GFS has next week - it'd to be great if that follow-up storm didn't end into a cutter from going neg. tilt over the plains, and slid underneath us. There's a 1050 HP that's too far north too. If only we could rearrange this map by hand ETA: This map is staring at you. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 The GFS has some trackable waves around the solstice time period...so basically we've been tracking winter until winter. And it's only 2 weeks away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 soooooo the GFS/GEFS completely whiffed on a 50/50 due to the system on Monday trending a lot more robust this has led to sweeping changes with how the overall pattern will develop later on, and the GEFS is now keying in on a lot more blocking over Greenland and AK. the AK blocking is likely due to the 50/50 as well as the GEFS noticing the effect of the +EAMT and Siberian TPV either way, I still think that we're on track for an exciting period of winter weather after the 15th or so. I see no reason to stray from that as of now. if anything, I've become a lot more confident since yesterday 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 About damn time a GFS op run shows a winter pattern when we expect one. I’m sure 18z will go back to hurricanes and SE ridges. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: About damn time a GFS op run shows a winter pattern when we expect one. I’m sure 18z will go back to hurricanes and SE ridges. Euro bout to be like… 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS trying to set up a shortwave train after the cutter this week, hopefully that can set up a Christmas miracle*. * That miracle being Ji not complaining 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 With the storm late weekend blowing up offshore into a big 50/50 low as @brooklynwx99 showed, suddenly our “torch” period is looking pretty chilly. The Friday-Thursday period looks BN actually right now with some notable CAD ahead of the big cutter that hopefully ushers in the pattern change. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I’m driving to Cincinnati Saturday for the bengals game on Sunday so maybe can get some pics of that headed over the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: @Ji will open the Winter 2023-24 thread soon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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