cbmclean Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: We're watching PSU get more cynical by the year But seriously I get ya...the way we've been goin' the last 6-7 years you almost look for it Cynicism? Or realism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Cynicism? Or realism? Around here probably somewhere in the middle...so in a word: Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m on my phone so hard to post too many graphics but that forecast trend out west has totally flipped. It’s handling the Siberian PV a lot more like the eps. Seems to be all somewhat due to a much more extended Pac jet. Maybe due to an East Asian mountain torque event? I looked at the NPAC jet on all 3 global means this morning and the EPS and GEPS were similar(more extended). Looks like GEFS may be playing catchup this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I looked at the NPAC jet on all 3 global means this morning and the EPS and GEPS were similar(more extended). Looks like GEFS may be playing catchup this time. Eric Webber is usually on top of EAMT and jet extensions. Waiting to see what he has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Eric Webber is usually on top of EAMT and jet extensions. Waiting to see what he has to say. I looked at both MJO and Pacific jet configuration and the latter stood out as the bigger difference between the EPS/GEPS and the GEFS, and a possible reason for the disparity between the advertised patterns in the EPO/PNA space. eta- I have read his threads on EAMT and he seems very knowledgeable on the subject. All complicated stuff. My observations are via my untrained eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 @mappy Here is your storm. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 f yeah it is 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes. Saw that! Bring it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now Wouldn’t shock me in the least 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seeing +Height anomalies in the HL regions(not the norm) is always better than the inverse. We have something to work with. Yes. GEFS still scours Canada free from most cold air, but that H5 look is light years better than it’s inverse. 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: I looked at the NPAC jet on all 3 global means this morning and the EPS and GEPS were similar(more extended). Looks like GEFS may be playing catchup this time. Yeah, I had to eyeball it as TT has no forecast trend plots for 250mb winds, but looked like a noticeable extension and strengthening after D7-8 on the 12z vs earlier runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: @mappy Here is your storm. It's Mappy anniversary and snow is blue...if it comes it shall be the Mappy- Avatar storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's Mappy anniversary and snow is blue...if it comes it shall be the Mappy- Avatar storm Merry Christmas Mappy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes.Encouraging to see the “event” live after an off run or two and while the other models trend a bit colder. Still got 4 days to will something a little more interesting to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 12z EPS looks worse with more troughing in the west. Everything else looks fine(NAO, EPO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now Lol you were saying? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 I always assume when there are two different camps that one won't completely cave to the other, but rather that they will end up meeting somewhere in the middle. Which...would not be optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I always assume when there are two different camps that one won't completely cave to the other, but rather that they will end up meeting somewhere in the middle. Which...would not be optimal. Maybe maybe not. The EPS pattern shown by @DarkSharkWX is “good” not “great”. More -EPO than +PNA and the ridging in the NAO is not a true block. But still a -AO. I’d certainly take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Sticking with Canada. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Scraff said: Triple Phaser. LFG! 2nd days in a row from the CMC. It MUST be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 At least we’re not torching, right? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes.GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 One reason today's afternoon EPS was worse than 0z is due to the placement and strength of the Aleutian low. Comparing 12z to 0z, we see that the Aleutian low in 12z is weaker and further west. A stronger + further east Aleutian low allows for a more poleward western ridge to setup, and along with the -EPO and -NAO/-AO, allows for cold to press on the EC and gives us the great look. Note: The 12z EPS today is certainly not bad at all, and is still a good look, just not as good as previous runs and not the "textbook" setup. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WB GEFS for Friday 16th 4 runs ago compared to 18z… Christmas Miracle still possible. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WB GEFS Sunday the 18th compared to 4 runs ago, my point the models still are not showing any clear trend yet… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 As @Weather Will shows there, 18z GEFS maintains more or less a similar look to 12z but more emphasizing the -EPO vs +PNA. All 3 ensemble systems have the -EPO in place by D8. D8 has more or less been our can kick point so that’s encouraging. Deeper into the runs they all get a cross-polar flow look as the EPO ridge goes across the AO domain. That will recharge Canada with very cold air if it happens eventually. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 My thoughts on why I think the pattern has high uncertainty. http://btrwxweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/expect-higher-uncertainty-for-weather.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. Yeah, really wondering what they di with the gfs upgrade. Makes you curious to whether they felt there was still a cold bias and adjusted to that too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, really wondering what they di with the gfs upgrade. Makes you curious to whether they felt there was still a cold bias and adjusted to that too much. I can’t find the link right now but apparently they did adjust gfs in the recent upgrade to account for temps in marginal setups (e.g. overly cold previously). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. No “storm” is also an option lol — 00z NAM says what system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: No “storm” is also an option lol — 00z NAM says what system 18z euro really dampens out the system. Really cut down on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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