nj2va Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 @mappy Here is your storm. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 f yeah it is 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes. Saw that! Bring it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now Wouldn’t shock me in the least 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seeing +Height anomalies in the HL regions(not the norm) is always better than the inverse. We have something to work with. Yes. GEFS still scours Canada free from most cold air, but that H5 look is light years better than it’s inverse. 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: I looked at the NPAC jet on all 3 global means this morning and the EPS and GEPS were similar(more extended). Looks like GEFS may be playing catchup this time. Yeah, I had to eyeball it as TT has no forecast trend plots for 250mb winds, but looked like a noticeable extension and strengthening after D7-8 on the 12z vs earlier runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: @mappy Here is your storm. It's Mappy anniversary and snow is blue...if it comes it shall be the Mappy- Avatar storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's Mappy anniversary and snow is blue...if it comes it shall be the Mappy- Avatar storm Merry Christmas Mappy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes.Encouraging to see the “event” live after an off run or two and while the other models trend a bit colder. Still got 4 days to will something a little more interesting to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 12z EPS looks worse with more troughing in the west. Everything else looks fine(NAO, EPO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now Lol you were saying? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 I always assume when there are two different camps that one won't completely cave to the other, but rather that they will end up meeting somewhere in the middle. Which...would not be optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I always assume when there are two different camps that one won't completely cave to the other, but rather that they will end up meeting somewhere in the middle. Which...would not be optimal. Maybe maybe not. The EPS pattern shown by @DarkSharkWX is “good” not “great”. More -EPO than +PNA and the ridging in the NAO is not a true block. But still a -AO. I’d certainly take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Sticking with Canada. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Scraff said: Triple Phaser. LFG! 2nd days in a row from the CMC. It MUST be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 At least we’re not torching, right? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes.GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 One reason today's afternoon EPS was worse than 0z is due to the placement and strength of the Aleutian low. Comparing 12z to 0z, we see that the Aleutian low in 12z is weaker and further west. A stronger + further east Aleutian low allows for a more poleward western ridge to setup, and along with the -EPO and -NAO/-AO, allows for cold to press on the EC and gives us the great look. Note: The 12z EPS today is certainly not bad at all, and is still a good look, just not as good as previous runs and not the "textbook" setup. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WB GEFS for Friday 16th 4 runs ago compared to 18z… Christmas Miracle still possible. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 WB GEFS Sunday the 18th compared to 4 runs ago, my point the models still are not showing any clear trend yet… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 As @Weather Will shows there, 18z GEFS maintains more or less a similar look to 12z but more emphasizing the -EPO vs +PNA. All 3 ensemble systems have the -EPO in place by D8. D8 has more or less been our can kick point so that’s encouraging. Deeper into the runs they all get a cross-polar flow look as the EPO ridge goes across the AO domain. That will recharge Canada with very cold air if it happens eventually. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 My thoughts on why I think the pattern has high uncertainty. http://btrwxweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/expect-higher-uncertainty-for-weather.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. Yeah, really wondering what they di with the gfs upgrade. Makes you curious to whether they felt there was still a cold bias and adjusted to that too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, really wondering what they di with the gfs upgrade. Makes you curious to whether they felt there was still a cold bias and adjusted to that too much. I can’t find the link right now but apparently they did adjust gfs in the recent upgrade to account for temps in marginal setups (e.g. overly cold previously). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder. No “storm” is also an option lol — 00z NAM says what system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: No “storm” is also an option lol — 00z NAM says what system 18z euro really dampens out the system. Really cut down on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18z euro really dampens out the system. Really cut down on qpfWe are in mid-season form 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 WB 0Z… ingredient #1 for snow moving into place the 17th-21st on all 3 global ensembles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow Yup. Followed by 70 the next day lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 As it looks now, the colder air will come in behind the mid month storm, which at this point looks like a mild rainstorm. Still a week out and there are hints on the ops and ens that it could morph into something a bit more favorable, but most likely outcome is rain for our region, with upslope snow for the western highlands on the backside. Once the colder air is in place and the the thermal boundary is south of the area, there should be some trackable waves leading up to Xmas. For all the reasons we have discussed over the past couple days with the pattern evolution, the airmass- at least initially- will likely be somewhat colder than average for the EC. The Canadian model is probably too cold- it has a stronger more classic -NAO look for a time beyond mid month, quite different from the EPS and GEFS. Good news is snow climo is improving the last third of the month. Personally I am rooting for something simple- a more modest wave tracking along the boundary vs something that amps up. The key to a favorable pattern for the last half of December imo lies on the PAC side at this point. We need a -EPO, and at least a neutral PNA period. The NAO will initially be quite negative, although probably never close to the true block of our hopes and dreams, but trending towards neutral by the end of the month. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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