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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Good to hear from you man.  Patience no doubt for the both of us but the coastal plain may have to be even more patient. I did like the 12z eps not just for the burnt orange in right spots but also  the quicker release of the "handshake" between the Canadian TPV and the break-off ULL off Cali.  Resulting in a more neutral PNA.  

I get the pitfalls of parsing LR progs but the stout NAO seems like a pretty good bet. The ancillary pluses and minuses may dictate whether we need to break out snowblowers or just continue our Nina frustration. At least the beginning of this flick has grabbed our attention!

Agreed. I don't want to set expectations too high. Happy to track the evolution of the cold and maybe we avoid the recent string of warm days after the 20th of December in recent years.      

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10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

In his WB blog earlier last week,  JB stated he has concerns for “severe cold” around mid month.  He also said in one of his videos that he did not want to lose viewers by stating how the pattern will evolve in January….(the implication was torch in January.)

Who knows but calling for a torch at some point once this pattern finally (and it will eventually) breaks isn’t a bold call. One trend the last 10 years or so is that when it’s an unfavorable pattern the east coast torches. We don’t see a little above normal, it’s either a favorable pattern or it’s almost shorts weather in DC. I’m exaggerating slightly, but only slightly.  And he will just can kick to Feb or March and say delayed not denied no matter what happens. He is way easier to predict than the weather. 

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2010? Should we be concerned, or is our collective ptsd from that year making me biased? Lolol

 

 

 

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It didn’t work out great for us and we have the Boxing Day fiasco, but I think we’d all roll with that chance again. 

Agree with Wxusaf. We all know the limitations of a Nina.  But the general pattern of 2010-11 puts us in the game. What went wrong with Boxing Day was more complicated than just “Nina”. There was a messy interaction between streams. Change the timing a few hours and we could have been crushed.  It can happen. 1996, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Jan 2011, March 2018. Coastals don’t always miss us in a Nina. We can’t change the fact it’s a Nina  and we should remain tempered somewhat by that fact, but ill take a repeat of 2010-11 and let the chips fall. I think the biggest difference between 1996 and 2011 was just bad dumb luck more than anything else. 

36 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Is Greenland really as far west as Minnesota?

Greenland is so close to the pole it’s as far west as lots of places. 

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37 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I personally have to be reminded….I am not a patient individual….

Well man around here you have to be. As Bob and a couple others have already alluded to...all we got right now is a potential pattern that might be serviceable. Then from there you wait to see if that materializes, then wait another week to see if anything pops up as it relaxes, then wait to see if what pops up actually turns into something to track...then see if that holds till inside a couple days, then....

So basically...a big lesson in patience, lol

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As many here already know, the skill of the CFS model for the next month is highest after the 27 th day of the month prior to the forecast given. Therefore, the current modeling by the CFS for this coming December may not be very far-fetched. 

 

Fip-fMQWQAEyDGY.thumb.png.45e38be333fd51688bcf842072745dd7.png

 

 

Of note, there is a signal here later in December for increased moisture potential in the East. Might be from a Miller A or Miller B, hard to tell, but the signal is there.  

 

 

Fip-ggjWIAEj4IV.thumb.png.dab8b088dd59e8fd66d6b9ea756d4b73.png

   

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Crazy -NAOs can do amazing things. For instructional purposes and to show the type of opportunities we could see in December with this type of block: This is a complete big dog H5 pattern. Mega west-based -NAO, longitudinally extended trop PV underneath, and a strong shortwave entering in CA. But it’s mid-December and a Niña, both of which are factors working against big dogs. GFS squashes this shortwave, which is not a surprising outcome in a Niña. Still, we might get some enticing Op runs in the days ahead. 
 

3F410313-F232-47B6-ADED-9F5CDE4DCCA0.png

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29 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Several interesting developments to keep track of moving forward: The rapid snow cover extent in the NH, and thoughts about the Hunga-Tonga Volcano erruption in Dec. 2021 and effects on the PV.   

 

Fip4pqSWAAE0mjf.thumb.jpeg.672ca00e7103b9f8954a24768cf3fa2a.jpeg

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

 

 

iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted. 

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted. 

Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah and didn't Pinatubo have like...a negative effect on our snow chances back then? I know we had a moderate niño around 1992 or so that didn't produce much, lol

Yes. Canonical volcanic climate response is summertime continental cooling and wintertime warming due to a strong +AO. 

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59 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Anyone have a translation for "k=1 CHI"? 

 

19 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

He’s referring to the MJO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/mjo_chi.shtml

200mb velocity potential is termed “chi” and “k=1” refers to wavenumber one. 

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