WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 23 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges. Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits. We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 14 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: 0 It’s important that this occur as predicted since end of Nov. Delayed but not denied is largely a myth, it mostly turns out just plain delayed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits. We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years. 5 days and in achieves the best utility, 7 days+ is just always all over the place depicting 25 degree temps swings with each 6 hour new release. Need a better boat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 48 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Lmao CMC op has a triple phaser storm at the end of its run With what appears to be a 1077 HP over Greenland at that same...cant tell if its 1067 or 1077..either is interesting to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Euro looks like it delivers some winter wx next weekend as block forces more south redevelopment 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS, first 7 days and last seven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 WB GFS, EURO, and Can. have a threat to watch 9-10 days out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks like it delivers some winter wx next weekend as block forces more south redevelopment Your account doesnt have a blue check and with the optism evident in this post this is clearly not Ji.....what did you do with him? 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Nice thread on the -NAO and PV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Wow. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, AtlanticWx said: Wow. Now to see if it moves up in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Wow. Still differences in the PNA domain between EPS and GEFS. This isn't based on anything shown on today's models, but I still think it's going to take until closer to the end of the month for the Pacific to improve given the Nina base state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Wow. Literally textbook... We have -EPO to provide cold air and northern stream shortwaves, troughing over and east of HI to indicate southern stream shortwaves/active STJ, western ridging, troughing over EC, and of course the -AO and west based -NAO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Still differences in the PNA domain between EPS and GEFS. This isn't based on anything shown on today's models, but I still think it's going to take until closer to the end of the month for the Pacific to improve given the Nina base state. WB 12z GEFS gets the PNA neutral the week before Christmas….finally. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Funnily enough, the EPS keeps the central area of our subforum near normal temperature-wise for the next 10 days.. Culprit is probably the consistent storminess being caught under the block, so after our brief warmup (+3-4F for the next 5 days), things look to cool down a bit from D5-D10. EPS +0-1F, GEFS +2-3F. All eyes are on the pattern after this timeframe, but definitely not a "torch" look as we head towards mid-month, despite poor airmass quality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 The end of the EPS run again with an Aleutian low getting into a nice position. Impressive HB. Follows pretty well what the weeklies showed for week 3. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: The end of the EPS run again with an Aleutian low getting into a nice position. Impressive HB. Follows pretty well what the weeklies showed for week 3. I haven’t looked at any guidance this weekend besides charts that have been posted here, but I want to see the Pac pattern easing get to D8-9. Seems like based on what people have posted, we’re on the hairy edge of that? Hopefully it holds through Tuesday-Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t looked at any guidance this weekend besides charts that have been posted here, but I want to see the Pac pattern easing get to D8-9. Seems like based on what people have posted, we’re on the hairy edge of that? Hopefully it holds through Tuesday-Wednesday. Still D10ish away on the eps. By D13 things really start looking nice. But, I agree...A change in the PAC is still a figment of LR modeling imagination. D13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 So we have been watching and monitoring for months and as we get under three weeks before Christmas, we are still in the game for a wintry holiday, can’t ask for more than that in the Mid-Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Still D10ish away on the eps. By D13 things really start looking nice. But, I agree...A change in the PAC is still a figment of LR modeling imagination. D13 See it starting to go neutral to positive on Day 11 on WB 12Z EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 ^i don’t think we could ask for more than that. Looks pretty solid 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Maybe I spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Hello happy hour GFS… ETA obviously this is a day 10+ op run so the usual caveats apply. But it is nice to see how the pattern evolves, with the Dec 9/10 and 12-13 storms(?) blowing up off the coast and helping to drag in the cold air! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Maybe I spoke too soon. Yowza. Post 240 GFS. Let’s see where that goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yowza. Post 240 GFS. Let’s see where that goes 977 mb and deepening at our latitude. Weather porn at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: 977 mb and deepening at our latitude. Weather porn at its best. GFS OnlyFans…original content every 6 hours 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 44 minutes ago, WinterFire said: Hello happy hour GFS… ETA obviously this is a day 10+ op run so the usual caveats apply. But it is nice to see how the pattern evolves, with the Dec 9/10 and 12-13 storms(?) blowing up off the coast and helping to drag in the cold air! 992 LP that appears to be trying to close off and go neg tilt (hard to tell on my smallish screen). What's that saying some quote about LPs going negative before they pass eastern TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, RDM said: 992 LP that appears to be trying to close off and go neg tilt (hard to tell on my smallish screen). What's that saying some quote about LPs going negative before they pass eastern TN? Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Boom It's amped, and in December is risky. We can have too much warm air flooding in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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