Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dude. You just posted a map with SIX FING INCHES of pdf and called it dry......ISSUES bro. -NAO's in December have been historically dry. Not this one. 1996 was the only exception and the similarity is that there was warmth in the ENSO subsurface (before 1997 El Nino). do you see my other maps(before +time)? water, water everywhere but noone pays $1 for water Yeah I'm out bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: https://fb.watch/hbQYHocZGI/?mibextid=vTn5qL Very good, lol And so very true! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I just think it's interesting.. watch it happen. I'd take a +NAO these days and in general. We are switching to a lower atmosphere pattern I think. STFU Chuck 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: STFU Chuck Cliché I don't know that people see my research though, because you can probably make monetary gain from it , because it's simple work. It's a long time at this point for information blackout re: responses. (Can't do anything if you're saying STFU to my outside point from 30 minutes ago.) Not a big deal.. but it's weird. calculated and no science (the response times). it's about respect too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 tick tock .. that's a greater signal pick-and-choose 1/every 10, in the roll forward +2 months. 00z GFS is running out to MR/LR now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 WB 0Z GFS is improvement… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS is improvement… Future runs will trend warmer at 500mb in the MA/SE.. maybe even alot warmer. I've seen it 100 times before. (It's 100/100).. PNA region dominates. (days 5.75-10.75) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 ^better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS is improvement… That Dec 12-13 piece of energy is key. The airmass associated with it comes all the way from Siberia/N AK and it being stronger means it gets trapped under the block and amplified, leading to colder and possibly snowier weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 EPS/Euro really trending in the right direction for that threat on the 10th. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: EPS/Euro really trending in the right direction for that threat on the 10th. Good test coming. Entering at least what used to be the euro wheelhouse. Lets see if it holds and others move to it or it slowly starts moving towards the other guidance. 5 days out now which isnt an eternity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Good test coming. Entering at least what used to be the euro wheelhouse. Lets see if it holds and others move to it or it slowly starts moving towards the other guidance. 5 days out now which isnt an eternity. TBF, CMC/ICON both show suppressed & colder solutions and Euro's trending colder; GFS is just on an island here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS and EPS both show a period to watch around the 18th-19th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Ok, 3 weeks to Christmas. White Christmas statistics say we have under a 10% chance. WB 0Z EPS…( most of the prob. At the end of its run. 3 and 1 inch maps.) I will post prob. maps only periodically since I know it irritates some… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Wrt the end of week event.. We have discussed the general setup here for awhile, and while not as cold a period as was suggested 4-5 days ago, there is still potential for a little frozen (for some). A strong HP building over eastern Canada should allow some colder air to push southward ahead of the approaching shortwave. The shortwave/ associated surface low generally looks to track NW into the OV on most guidance, GFS being further NW. At this point it appears redevelopment may occur off the MA coast- more likely if that HP is stronger/stays in place longer. It's a complex setup but one that could produce some frozen at least for a time, further N being favored ofc. That high will be sliding northeastward (quicker on the GFS) and this is right at the beginning stages of a major pattern change with limited cold available, so keep expectations in check lol. Using the Euro(better outcome) for illustrative purposes- 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies the EPS is also really nice after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (Narrator’s voice): in most of this forum, there was a LOT of frustration during and after BDB in 2010 as well… 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies the EPS is also really nice after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010 The overall look on the EPS- the pattern progression, especially in the PNA/EPO domains, the orientation of the NAO block, pretty much everything-is a little better than the GEFS. Hopefully it ends up being closer to reality. Agreed the pattern needs some time to 'mature'. Probably looking at beyond mid month for any significant frozen potential for the MA lowlands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: (Narrator’s voice): in most of this forum, there was a LOT of frustration during and after BDB in 2010 as well… haha I know that you guys got skunked with that storm, but I would roll the dice with that general setup every time in the MA 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The overall look on the EPS- the pattern progression, especially in the PNA/EPO domains, the orientation of the NAO block, pretty much everything-is a little better than the GEFS. Hopefully it ends up being closer to reality. Agreed the pattern needs some time to 'mature'. Probably looking at beyond mid month for any significant frozen potential for the MA lowlands. yup! still thinking after the 15th until the end of the month before a potential reload? there's a really strong correlation between -NAOs in Dec / Jan, so this isn't going to be a one and done either. there should be lots of chances' one of which is this weekend! kind of a weird setup, but we want to see the block and S/W strengthen in tandem to get more convergence... that's a really nice HP in Canada already though 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: haha I know that you guys got skunked with that storm, but I would roll the dice with that general setup every time in the MA It was so close, and the overall h5 look was about as good as it gets in a Nina. Devil in the details. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I think we need to do an autopsy on why anyone felt like the change to colder and potential snow was going to happen before mid month because to me it always seemed like after the 15th was when stuff started to look good. Maybe it was that dude CAPE talking about a storm window around the 9th . Just kidding but dang when I said maybe 70 around the 7th that was based on an op run 2 weeks ago...maybe not 70 anymore but 60+ seems reasonable so first these op runs do have some worth in the longer run and second the 15th is when I will start getting hyped or disappointed...until then what is happening has been expected IMO. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think we need to do an autopsy on why anyone felt like the change to colder and potential snow was going to happen before mid month because to me it always seemed like after the 15th was when stuff started to look good. Maybe it was that dude CAPE talking about a storm window around the 9th . Just kidding but dang when I said maybe 70 around the 7th that was based on an op run 2 weeks ago...maybe not 70 anymore but 60+ seems reasonable so first these op runs do have some worth in the longer run and second the 15th is when I will start getting hyped or disappointed...until then what is happening has been expected IMO. I also feel like these pattern changes take time to take shape so even if there was a potential threat window early in the blocking pattern change, more often than not, those shift right. Snow in the first part of December is really hard to make happen for most in the forum (especially in a Nina). So even if the more favorable pacific is delayed until later in December (and hopefully links up with a favorable Atlantic), it’d be much better climo for the 95 areas. Level headed thinking and snow don’t go hand in hand in the mid Atlantic though… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think we need to do an autopsy on why anyone felt like the change to colder and potential snow was going to happen before mid month because to me it always seemed like after the 15th was when stuff started to look good. Maybe it was that dude CAPE talking about a storm window around the 9th . Just kidding but dang when I said maybe 70 around the 7th that was based on an op run 2 weeks ago...maybe not 70 anymore but 60+ seems reasonable so first these op runs do have some worth in the longer run and second the 15th is when I will start getting hyped or disappointed...until then what is happening has been expected IMO. My sense for the window around the 9th was a shot at something minor- a chance for some to get on the board early with the initial step down to a colder pattern. Despite the usual can kicking on guidance, that chance is actually still there. Not sure about your 70 call though. Maybe 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 What I wanted to see if we’re gonna snow before the 15th is a more poleward aleutian high shifted more east to dump arctic air east of the rockies. The maps don’t show that and never have until EPS hints toward it dec ~17th or so. Otherwise we can make a -pna work in January but not this time of year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What I wanted to see if we’re gonna snow before the 15th is a more poleward aleutian high shifted more east to dump arctic air east of the rockies. The maps don’t show that and never have until EPS hints toward it dec ~17th or so. Otherwise we can make a -pna work in January but not this time of year. The ens runs of 5-7 days ago did have that ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK, sending a TPV lobe southward while bridging with the developing -NAO ridge over GL. That progression was in error, but at the time it looked as though we might be set up for at least a modest event in the Dec 8-12 window. Even if that had worked out climo was always going to be an issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Statistically there has been a slow decline for the last 100 years. It happens in an uneven way with cycles within the longer trend but it’s there. Very, very slow decline. I did a linear regression for total annual snow in DC and Baltimore since 1880s last year and the slope was barely negative (statistically within the margin of error for zero slope). Also not sure about there being more big ones and less small events than in the past, although I didn’t do a statistical analysis of that yet. There were some huge KUs all throughout the last 120 years as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Interesting storm hour 216 on GFS 12z op. sub 980 spins down the coast toward delmarva from NJ...that looked fun...at least the block will give us good virtual fodder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Lmao CMC op has a triple phaser storm at the end of its run 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 The eye in the sky is watching us Eta: in all seriousness that wouldnt be a terrible setup...i'd roll the dice with it 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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