December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[WinterFire]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My fear is by the time the pac improves we lose the Atlantic. That’s been a common theme. I’ll take the pac to increase chances if some snow given temps are the bigger problem lately, but truth is we’re unlikely to do very well without both cooperating

I definitely get the lingering fear having been burned too many times but it just doesn’t seem like the Atlantic is in a rush to break down, unless I’m missing something? Add to that, how much do we need a super-cooperative pacific vs just not having a -PNA on roids (which as you pointed out seems to be a common theme these days)?

At least, all of that is true for snow. For actual cold on the other hand…that just seems to be an impossibility since the 2019-2020 winter. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I get it, but we end up getting what we get regardless lol. As you know we can luck into a good event or two even if the overall pattern is crap. If the NA blocking ends up short lived, maybe we can roll the dice with an EPO ridge, as some of the extended guidance is suggesting heading into Jan. A bit of help(well timed) in the NA can work if we have a mechanism to get the cold here. This is mostly how we roll. Modeled 'perfect' patterns don't materialize or are short lived, and we get our snow in a pattern with warts.

 

1 minute ago, WinterFire said:

I definitely get the lingering fear having been burned too many times but it just doesn’t seem like the Atlantic is in a rush to break down, unless I’m missing something? Add to that, how much do we need a super-cooperative pacific vs just not having a -PNA on roids (which as you pointed out seems to be a common theme these days)?

At least, all of that is true for snow. For actual cold on the other hand…that just seems to be an impossibility since the 2019-2020 winter. 

I have hope. Just being pragmatic and keeping my expectations in check given the evidence of how this usually ends in a Nina. But there are plenty of encouraging enough signs. It certainly could be worse. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes this is what makes it more difficult discern just based on snowfall totals. And the question has always been what the difference is between say a mediocre run in the 50s by nature of said variability, vs a mediocre run today. Climo vs climate, lol

Yes exactly. What is indisputable is that our winters are warmer by every metric. The shift to wetter conditions hasn’t been as dramatic in winter months, but it’s there too. So with more precipitation and less snow, it’s not hard to implicate the warmer temps. But that increased moisture gives us a better chance at the rare big dog. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I tend to agree. But I dont think so this year. I could end up wrong. Have many times. But I dont think the blocking breaks down this winter. Think the NAO could carry us to a few events. Mainly talking about us with elevation. But I do feel WAY better about this winter than last years debacle. 

Even to my amateur eyes that -NAO...at least what we've seen so far, seems like it wants to be pretty stout. Not like it's been kinda tepid/neutral. Even in the models showing the pac not being as good, the -NAO is still going strong. Now of course...that's this month so we'll have to see.

[psuhoffman]

Let me preface this that I don’t necessarily buy into this ATT. But…there is a lot of assumption that once the cold enso pattern breaks our pac issues will be alleviated. But we did have a Nino and a neutral winter recently where the pac was every bit as god awful and there are some speculating this current cycle is more related to other factors not enso.   

[AtlanticWx]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I tend to agree. But I dont think so this year. I could end up wrong. Have many times. But I dont think the blocking breaks down this winter. Think the NAO could carry us to a few events. Mainly talking about us with elevation. But I do feel WAY better about this winter than last years debacle. 

This. Out of the 11 Decembers with an -NAO <-1.2 sd, 10/11 Januaries and 7/11 Februaries had a -NAO too (see this tweet). Blocking won't break down that easily, and we could get another +SCAND going on soon that could retrogade and enforce the -NAO.

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes exactly. What is indisputable is that our winters are warmer by every metric. The shift to wetter conditions hasn’t been as dramatic in winter months, but it’s there too. So with more precipitation and less snow, it’s not hard to implicate the warmer temps. But that increased moisture gives us a better chance at the rare big dog. 

Is it really giving us a better chance at the rare big dog or is it just increasing how much of a dumping we get in our rare big dogs?

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Even to my amateur eyes that -NAO...at least what we've seen so far, seems like it wants to be pretty stout. Not like it's been kinda tepid/neutral. Even in the models showing the pac not being as good, the -NAO is still going strong. Now of course...that's this month so we'll have to see.

The NAO alone wont make us win. But it is a huge piece as long as we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere. And we do. We will have chances as long as the northern jet is buckled. And it appears that will be happening for the next few weeks at least. No guarantees. But I will take a -NAO in winter over a positive always. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period before Christmas.  Would note the cool down can be seen starting around the 16th.   So there is still hope.

 

I understand the pessimism, but White Christmas is rare around here:  ### the Channel 4 forecast, I will go with Channel 9:

Overall, white Christmases are rare in the region. According to the official definition of "white Christmas" from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Christmas can only be considered white if there is one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Dec. 25.

Looking at data going back to 1884, snow has only fallen on Christmas Day in D.C. nine times. That means there is only a 7% chance of a white Christmas in D.C. in 2022. 

There have been 19 occasions when snow was on the ground in D.C. for Christmas since 1888.  In 1962, D.C. saw the most snowfall on Dec. 25 with 5.4 inches. 

Our WUSA9 Weather Watch team predicts the first measurable snowfall in the DMV will be Dec. 18.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

there is a lot of assumption that once the -NAO pattern breaks our pac issues will be alleviated. 

Yes.. maybe we will have -NAO all Winter..  could be the same to worse.. (I edited your post)

[DarkSharkWX]

0

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Is it really giving us a better chance at the rare big dog or is it just increasing how much of a dumping we get in our rare big dogs?

Eh…like are there stronger shortwaves now?  Not sure.  I don’t follow it closely but the link between climate and baroclinicity seems less certain. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yes.. maybe we will have -NAO all Winter..  could be the same to worse.. (I edited your post)

Fixed is highly subjective 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period before Christmas.  Would note the cool down can be seen starting around the 16th.   So there is still hope.

 

I understand the pessimism, but White Christmas is rare around here:  ### the Channel 4 forecast, I will go with Channel 9:

Overall, white Christmases are rare in the region. According to the official definition of "white Christmas" from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Christmas can only be considered white if there is one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Dec. 25.

Looking at data going back to 1884, snow has only fallen on Christmas Day in D.C. nine times. That means there is only a 7% chance of a white Christmas in D.C. in 2022. 

There have been 19 occasions when snow was on the ground in D.C. for Christmas since 1888.  In 1962, D.C. saw the most snowfall on Dec. 25 with 5.4 inches. 

Our WUSA9 Weather Watch team predicts the first measurable snowfall in the DMV will be Dec. 18.

 

I think Channel 4 Doug K. Is saying December 20th...... 2023

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I think Channel 4 Doug K. Is saying December 20th...... 2023

Doug's forecast is 100% verifying!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fixed is highly subjective 

I just think it's interesting.. watch it happen. I'd take a +NAO these days and in general. We are switching to a lower atmosphere pattern I think. 

 

[Weather Will]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I think Channel 4 Doug K. Is saying December 20th...... 2023

Little off topic, but as a DC native, who had to rely on the tv mets before there was internet, I would go with Shutt’s forecast over Kammerer’s any day of the week.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'd take a +NAO these days

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let me preface this that I don’t necessarily buy into this ATT. But…there is a lot of assumption that once the cold enso pattern breaks our pac issues will be alleviated. But we did have a Nino and a neutral winter recently where the pac was every bit as god awful and there are some speculating this current cycle is more related to other factors not enso.   

I know I get the weenie tag for saying "Does a niño still work", but this is why I am genuinely curious about what will happen in our next legit niño (2018/19 is hard for me to count because it was a bit of a wimp strength-wise). To see just what those look like with where we are now climate-wise.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just don’t 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I know I get the weenie tag for saying "Does a niño still work", but this is why I am genuinely curious about what will happen in our next legit niño (2018/19 is hard for me to count because it was a bit of a wimp strength-wise). To see just what those look like with where we are now climate-wise.

It seems like they are getting progressively "less uniform" (our last strong Nino 15-16 was followed by 6-7 years of -PNA )

[clskinsfan]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Just don’t 

Sorry brother cant help it. 

[Ian]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is 100% but I continue to observe the fact that over the last 10 years we seem to need increasingly anomalously perfect patterns to get snow. The days of lucking into snow with marginal setups seem a thing of the past.  

part of it is we don't have much prolonged cold. unfortunately it needs to be cold to snow. 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Ian said:

part of it is we don't have much prolonged cold. unfortunately it needs to be cold to snow. 

Man. Been really nice to have Ian and many of the originals back the past couple of weeks. 

[DarkSharkWX]

EPS/GEPS look good

[Ian]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. Been really nice to have Ian and many of the originals back the past couple of weeks. 

Keep it simple right? Feels like it's hard to get that ideal modeled pattern in a Nina around here. Still looks okay at some distance but verbatim it's mostly warm until mid-Dec on Euro ensembles for instance. Not great. We don't do cold December anymore. 

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, Ian said:

Keep it simple right? Feels like it's hard to get that ideal modeled pattern in a Nina around here. Still looks okay at some distance but verbatim it's mostly warm until mid-Dec on Euro ensembles for instance. Not great. 

I was referring more not about the weather part of it. Just nice to have ya'll back. But since we are weather forum and all of that......What are your thoughts on the -NAO sticking around for an extended period. It is going to be strong. That isnt debatable at this point.  And I think it ends up staying with us for the majority of the winter. Through early Feb at least. We are all guessing at this point. But the MJO is going 7-8 and then to the COD. I think the Mid Atlantic ends up in the battle zone this year. Maybe no "big dogs". But I am bullish about an over climo winter for many of us. Maybe even WAY over climo for those of us with elevation. Again. Nice to have you back Ian. 

[Ian]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I was referring more not about the weather part of it. Just nice to have ya'll back. But since we are weather forum and all of that......What are your thoughts on the -NAO sticking around for an extended period. It is going to be strong. That isnt debatable at this point.  And I think it ends up staying with us for the majority of the winter. Through early Feb at least. We are all guessing at this point. But the MJO is going 7-8 and then to the COD. I think the Mid Atlantic ends up in the battle zone this year. Maybe no "big dogs". But I am bullish about an over climo winter for many of us. Maybe even WAY over climo for those of us with elevation. Again. Nice to have you back Ian. 

well - figured I should say something more than it needs to be cold to snow lol. I dunno. I think it showing up early and strong is probably a sign it will try to 1) linger and/or 2) return. but not sure it's quite the be all it might be in some nino winters etc. we've had a recent tendency for -nao and east coast ridging in last few winters. not saying that's going to be the case long term here but the shifts in the nearer term on that front might be worth considering. a lot of it imo is Dec is tough now.. warming is a pain. 

[clskinsfan]

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Again, these have a 0.50 correlation of being dry

Dude. You just posted a map with SIX FING INCHES of pdf and called it dry......ISSUES bro.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Sorry brother cant help it. 

https://fb.watch/hbQYHocZGI/?mibextid=vTn5qL