December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nice article about the upcoming Niño:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-cold-enso-2022-el-nino-event-2023-weather-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/

Yeah, the subsurface is really warm

A lot of the analog roll forward I did gave us 50% chance of Nino next year, 25% Neutral, 25% Nina(it's like 10% because we are 0/7 in 4th year Nina's). We'll see, events have been getting depressed in general, defaulting to 1998- cold period (-PDO) base state. 

^The mid-subsurface at -200m actually correlates directly with the 500mb N. Hemisphere pattern, and is a reason, I think why, we are so wet. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hm...that -PNA persistence could explain why even the Euro/Eps aren't spitting out the pretty looks they were. 

Wut? 

This is actually finally moving up in time it appears. Was day 13 now day 10. EPS are gold bro, chill:

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nice article about the current nina and upcoming nino

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-cold-enso-2022-el-nino-event-2023-weather-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/

Basically saying while the Nina is still pretty healthy it likely has peaked. Also noted warming in the western region since October

Yeah. No chance we go quad Nina. But dont think we will definitely get a Nino either. Neutral winters do happen. And with the way the base state seems to want to be over the past few years I would probably put my money on that. We can do great in neutral Enso's though with lots of overrun events. Our area usually ends up the battle line in those winters. Probably our most consistent way to score here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wut? 

This is actually finally moving up in time it appears. Was day 13 now day 10. EPS are gold bro, chill:

Whoops. I think I tried to hard to say something productive just to say it...y'all got me wanting to prove myself now

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS teleconnection forecasts.  IF CORRECT, the PNA heads toward neutral by the week before Christmas and the NAO, EPO, and AO look good during the same timeframe….let’s see if the PNA starts heading toward neutral by the end of the upcoming work week.  Maybe we are going to get a Christmas miracle.

[Weather Will]

What am I missing here, we need the PNA to cooperate by not being at minus 2-4 deviation when we have a strong -AO and -NAO.  We are going below freezing tonight and tomorrow night with a - 1 to -2 PNA.  The EPS goes strongly negative with the PNA this week and then is forecasted to head back toward neutral for a sustained period of time within the next two weeks.  Let’s see if that timeframe holds.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What am I missing here, we need the PNA to cooperate by not being at minus 2-4 deviation when we have a strong -AO and -NAO.  We are going below freezing tonight and tomorrow night with a - 1 to -2 PNA.  The EPS goes strongly negative with the PNA this week and then is forecasted to head back toward neutral for a sustained period of time within the next two weeks.  Let’s see if that timeframe holds.

I think -PNA of any level causes SER to flex just enough for storms to head north of our area.  The don’t dig far enough south.  

[WxUSAF]

44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hm...that -PNA persistence could explain why even the Euro/Eps aren't spitting out the pretty looks they were. So I could be wrong about what I posted earlier...still gotta wait and see in future runs if our favorite blue ball in the pac starts reappearing when the run gets to the week of the 11th.

 

For the record: A productive post.

The -PNA is part of the problem obviously but we could have probably dealt with this level of -PNA (weak to moderate) if we had trapped the PV underneath the -NAO. Without that, we’re just trapping in modified garbage air masses and then popping SE ridges. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z GFS ensembles looks really bad in the ER (extended range) day 15>beyond (trend)

[AtlanticWx]

The long-range pattern looks fine — piece of energy by energy breaks down the SER and further amplifies the Atlantic troughing. We'll be fine lmao, we want the interior NE to win right now so the airmass won't be as modified by the time it reaches us.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GFS ensembles looks really bad in the ER (extended range) day 15>beyond (trend)

Not bad…just too warm for snow or anything wintry.  Ok bad.  Need to take the gas out of the snow blower and put it into the lawn mower 

[CAPE]

The crazy wave breaking between the Okhotsk/Siberian TPV and the Aleutian ridge is what the guidance missed several days ago. That TPV lobe remains stronger than was previously depicted and ends up digging south and breaking the ridge bridge, thus enhancing the -PNA. Probably related to -EAMT/ NPJ retraction.

Compared to the same period several days ago-

 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The -PNA is part of the problem obviously but we could have probably dealt with this level of -PNA (weak to moderate) if we had trapped the PV underneath the -NAO. Without that, we’re just trapping in modified garbage air masses and then popping SE ridges. 

And the PV is kinda like this jello where you smahs it and you can't quite predict which part of it is gonna split where? (Maybe not the best analogy, but ya probably get my drift). Noticed that when we got a little unlucky in 2020-21 when the dang thing split into Texas, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The crazy wave breaking between the Okhotsk/Siberian TPV and the Aleutian ridge is what the guidance missed several days ago. That TPV lobe remains stronger than was previously depicted and ends up digging south and breaking the ridge bridge, thus enhancing the -PNA. Probably related to -EAMT/ NPJ retraction.

Compared to the same period several days ago-

 

December 7th was right on when the pattern would switch, does it still look ok enough after that?

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The -PNA is part of the problem obviously but we could have probably dealt with this level of -PNA (weak to moderate) if we had trapped the PV underneath the -NAO. Without that, we’re just trapping in modified garbage air masses and then popping SE ridges. 

This is 100% but I continue to observe the fact that over the last 10 years we seem to need increasingly anomalously perfect patterns to get snow. The days of lucking into snow with marginal setups seem a thing of the past.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out my research from last Winter as to what a +PNA Dec means for the rest of the Winter. (last year was the #1 strongest PNA on record, per 500mb)

20 analogs, that came out at +100dm -PNA for, Jan and Feb! same 20 analogs came out ta a +70dm +NAO for Jan and Feb! The NAO is probably of more significance because same things correlate the same going forward, but the NAO is not so connected... so, if the PNA comes out like 18z GFS ensembles have, making it a top 5 Dec PNA on record, it's a strong +NAO, -PNA signal for Jan-Feb combined. That's just roll-forward, but I was surprised how well it worked out last year.. The +100/+70-2months dominated other things that were conflicting indicators in early January, like ENSO developments. 

[AtlanticWx]

EPS Control coming in hot with cold pressing more compared to 12z.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

December 7th was right on when the pattern would switch, does it still look ok enough after that?

The pattern was never going to just switch. Major pattern changes happen in steps. It is going to take a bit longer than originally modeled, which is pretty common. Better to have the pattern 'mature' in mid to late December or even a bit later when we are moving into more favorable climo for snow. Why waste a nice pattern in a period where it will most likely produce cold rain or slop.

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF we probably can still work with a marginal setup between like Jan 10-Feb 15 or some crazy small window like that, maybe…but we seem to also get our worst patterns during that narrow window often.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is 100% but I continue to observe the fact that over the last 10 years we seem to need increasingly anomalously perfect patterns to get snow. The days of lucking into snow with marginal setups seem a thing of the past.  

Perhaps when you have time you could put together some comparisons of particular storms before the last 10 years where a marginal setup worked as opposed to now (maybe such a comparison might be too tedious though, lol But I would love to see some type of comparison)

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF we probably can still work with a marginal setup between like Jan 10-Feb 15 or some crazy small window like that, maybe…but we seem to also get our worst patterns during that narrow window often.  

Yeah probably something like that. We need more anomalously cold air then we did 20-40 years ago. But we also have generally wetter conditions. Probably why a higher proportion of our snow now is in rarer larger events and we’re losing a lot of the lighter events with borderline temps.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah probably something like that. We need more anomalously cold air then we did 20-40 years ago. But we also have generally wetter conditions. Probably why a higher proportion of our snow now is in rarer larger events and we’re losing a lot of the lighter events with borderline temps.

Do ya think we first started to "lose on the margins" around in the 90s? Or perhaps just the last decade as psu alluded to?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The pattern was never going to just switch. Major pattern changes happen in steps. It is going to take a bit longer than originally modeled, which is pretty common. Better to have the pattern 'mature' in mid to late December or even a bit later when we are moving into more favorable climo for snow. Why waste a nice pattern in a period where it will most likely produce cold rain or slop.

My fear is by the time the pac improves we lose the Atlantic. That’s been a common theme. I’ll take the pac to increase chances if some snow given temps are the bigger problem lately, but truth is we’re unlikely to do very well without both cooperating 

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Perhaps when you have time you could put together some comparisons of particular storms before the last 10 years where a marginal setup worked as opposed to now (maybe such a comparison might be too tedious though, lol But I would love to see some type of comparison)

I’ll try but it would be somewhat subjective since you can’t simply add a couple degrees and keep everything else the same.  Example: there is some good research implying the central pac ridging is being enhanced by warning. That’s going to encourage a -pna which in turn pumps the se ridge which is also being further enhanced by warmer SST in the GOM and Atlantic. So the whole storm track can be shifted hundreds of miles and a whole pattern radically altered by relatively minor warming. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do ya think we first started to "lose on the margins" around in the 90s? Or perhaps just the last decade as psu alluded to?

Statistically there has been a slow decline for the last 100 years. It happens in an uneven way with cycles within the longer trend but it’s there. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do ya think we first started to "lose on the margins" around in the 90s? Or perhaps just the last decade as psu alluded to?

I think it’s hard to put a date on it because snowfall has always been a highly variable number in our area. But since the 80s and 90s we’ve really gotten into a boom-bust cycle where before then, the bust years were far less frequent.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GFS ensembles looks really bad in the ER

 

58 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

The long-range pattern looks fine

[Stormchaserchuck1]

*If I can 1 more post this. It was Dec-Mar. A 0.40-0.50 correlation/above random for +NAO Jan-Mar, based on Dec -PNA, (since 1948, 75 analogs. top 20/75 analogs). 

[clskinsfan]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF we probably can still work with a marginal setup between like Jan 10-Feb 15 or some crazy small window like that, maybe…but we seem to also get our worst patterns during that narrow window often.  

I tend to agree. But I dont think so this year. I could end up wrong. Have many times. But I dont think the blocking breaks down this winter. Think the NAO could carry us to a few events. Mainly talking about us with elevation. But I do feel WAY better about this winter than last years debacle. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My fear is by the time the pac improves we lose the Atlantic. That’s been a common theme. I’ll take the pac to increase chances if some snow given temps are the bigger problem lately, but truth is we’re unlikely to do very well without both cooperating 

 

Yeah I get it, but we end up getting what we get regardless lol. As you know we can luck into a good event or two even if the overall pattern is crap. If the NA blocking ends up short lived, maybe we can roll the dice with an EPO ridge, as some of the extended guidance is suggesting heading into Jan. A bit of help(well timed) in the NA can work if we have a mechanism to get the cold here. This is mostly how we roll. Modeled 'perfect' patterns don't materialize or are short lived, and we get our snow in a pattern with warts.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s hard to put a date on it because snowfall has always been a highly variable number in our area. But since the 80s and 90s we’ve really gotten into a boom-bust cycle where before then, the bust years were far less frequent.

Yes this is what makes it more difficult discern just based on snowfall totals. And the question has always been what the difference is between say a mediocre run in the 50s by nature of said variability, vs a mediocre run today. Climo vs climate, lol