cbmclean Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Love the storm on the 12z gfs tracking from Lake Erie SE to Bermuda. Minor change from 6z Isn't the Buffalo-to-Bermuda express a standard track? Its how Bermuda gets most of their blizzards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I just realized I shared the wrong image. I meant this one: Where would a low be on that chart? With heights like that, I doubt it would be the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Where would a low be on that chart? With heights like that, I doubt it would be the Ohio Valley. The precip anomaly for the time frame looks golden! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Where would a low be on that chart? With heights like that, I doubt it would be the Ohio Valley. Should be more south and east, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Should be more south and east, no? I'm not sure. The precip anomaly field has it over Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 12z GEFS still has a signal for an EC storm around the 15th. Still in the game… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Monster Baffin block, 50/50 and something brewing on the Gulf Coast? Yeah. I will take my chances with that map every single time. 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 ^yes I think you are correct about that. That will work just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 GEFS is really nice from next weekend through the end of its run. That block isnt going anywhere anytime soon. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges. OP at range should always be taken with a grain of salt. Not useful past 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Euro op should be in range soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Difference between GFS op and GEFS lately set me looking for some info about ensembles in gneral. Some interesting info here. https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=12962#.Y4uYXnbMKUk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Hoping that threat around the 10th works out for us 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Some seem to think there's been a can-kick, but I'm not seeing that. Mid-Dec was always the more favorable period, right? And today's runs are still showing the pattern change the week of the 11th, aren't they? Unless I'm not looking at it right, lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Importance of the PNA.. I keep harping on how big of a miss this is, because of how dry -NAO/-AO's typically are We are entering a very wet pattern at just the right time(NAO/AO), which is contrary to what's normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Some seem to think there's been a can-kick, but I'm not seeing that. Mid-Dec was always the more favorable period, right? And today's runs are still showing the pattern change the week of the 11th, aren't they? Unless I'm not looking at it right, lol Wreaths Across America is 12/17. I'd like it actually feel like December that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wreaths Across America is 12/17. I'd like it actually feel like December that day. Our winters seem to be just warm days cool nights…with brief periods of extra cool. The Nina is getting real old now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Our winters seem to be just warm days cool nights…with brief periods of extra cool. The Nina is getting real old now Ain’t that the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 The present Nina, our climo and the crummy Pac appears to be countering the - AO and - NAO. At least that is my thought. Might be a while for a decent pattern here. According to Don the - PNA regime will last a while. Here is his post on the PNA From @donsutherland1 Statistically, insight regarding strong AO+ values proved useful in heralding the arrival of AO blocking in late November. A sustained AO- regime commenced on November 23. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58336-november-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6681570 Statistical trends in the PNA following the most similar December 3 cases suggest that, just as is shown on the dynamical guidance, the ongoing PNA- regime will be slow to breakdown. By the end of the third week in December, values should be less negative than they currently are. However, the development of sustained positive values by that time seems unlikely (not zero, but still a less than one-in-three probability). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Texas Panhandle seems the place to be on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, frd said: The present Nina, our climo and the crummy Pac appears to be countering the - AO and - NAO. At least that is my thought. Might be a while for a decent pattern here. According to Don the - PNA regime will last a while. Here is his post on the PNA From @donsutherland1 Statistically, insight regarding strong AO+ values proved useful in heralding the arrival of AO blocking in late November. A sustained AO- regime commenced on November 23. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58336-november-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6681570 Statistical trends in the PNA following the most similar December 3 cases suggest that, just as is shown on the dynamical guidance, the ongoing PNA- regime will be slow to breakdown. By the end of the third week in December, values should be less negative than they currently are. However, the development of sustained positive values by that time seems unlikely (not zero, but still a less than one-in-three probability). If that's the case December is pretty much sunk again...unless we can get it to hover around neutral for a time. Crying shame we gotta waste all the blocking...but it is a nina. I don't understand why people give me grief in here for not liking thus enso state, lol This is what it does! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Crying shame we gotta waste all the blocking We wasted a ton of blocking 2 winters ago. But all of the cold air ended up trapped on the other side of the Hemisphere that winter. We have been relatively cold. We dont need straight out of the Arctic ball shrinking cold to snow. We just need enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We wasted a ton of blocking 2 winters ago. But all of the cold air ended up trapped on the other side of the Hemisphere that winter. We have been relatively cold. We dont need straight out of the Arctic ball shrinking cold to snow. We just need enough. Oh yes two winters ago that was just unlucky...that was our solar minimum blocking too, lol We just haven't been able to line up good blocking with other things. Man we better not finally get a modoki next year then have jack diddly for blocking...that would be just dumbdy-dumb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't understand why people give me grief in here for not liking thus enso state Because it is almost the only thing you post about, they aren't helpful posts either, they just complain about our enso state. They provide no value other than to depress the thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Because it is almost the only thing you post about, they aren't helpful posts either, they just complain about our enso state. They provide no value other than to depress the thread. Not the "only thing"...not even close. Did I not share things earlier? Talk about the what the ensembles were showing? Pattern change and such? I have been making the effort to be more productive and nobody is givin' me credit. But it's kinda whatever. For every nina post I'll make a productive one, how about that? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 @Maestrobjwa try something…instead of coming at this from the perspective of “it should snow” then getting frustrated when it doesn’t…just come at it from the expectation it probably won’t snow and expect nothing…then be happy when on rare occasions it does snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Hm...that -PNA persistence could explain why even the Euro/Eps aren't spitting out the pretty looks they were. So I could be wrong about what I posted earlier...still gotta wait and see in future runs if our favorite blue ball in the pac starts reappearing when the run gets to the week of the 11th. For the record: A productive post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Or start a go Fund me project to turn all of central MD and NW VA into a huge lake. Sell It as creating a sustainable freshwater source for the megalopolis or something, only we will know the real reason. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Nice article about the current nina and upcoming nino https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-cold-enso-2022-el-nino-event-2023-weather-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/ Basically saying while the Nina is still pretty healthy it likely has peaked. Also noted warming in the western region since October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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