December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Weather Will]

Cold shot in the Dec 8-9 period could be the one to set us up for a wintry event.  The weekend of the 9-12 period that Cape has referenced appears to be our first chance of accumulating snow east of the mountains.  Too early to pinpoint a particular wave.

Initially, I had been looking at Dec 5-6 period but it looks like that is too early.

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles last night can kicked by 24-48hrs. They precise timing has been bouncing around so it’s not exactly a notable change. And as I’ve said several times, I don’t mind a modest can kick while our climo gets better day by day. 

We been on this ride a long time friend. I used to get head over heels with the prospect of a long range west based block and what it can mean. Time and time again I was taught to be patient. Lol 

I do think this one will verify and that's prob all that matters in model land. "Build it and they will come" is a good analogy where my head is at. I'm down at smith mtn for a week. Hoping trackable threats are inside of d15 by the time I get back 

[Chris78]

Cautiously excited about the pattern we are heading into.

Cold coast to coast and not a dry pattern either. Really like seeing the + precip anomalies in the Tennessee Valley.

And if it gets can kicked by a few days or a week that's better for our area anyway.

If we can get this look past 12/15 it's game on.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…

December 5th and on have been the time frame for the transition.  As you can see this is the 3rd. I mean if you are just being pessimistic then just say so. IMO a pattern change later in the month will be much better according to climo.... 

[Terpeast]

I would rather see a change to cold after the 15th in this case, because this early without a +pna we probably get cold rain even with a decent track and -nao

[aldie 22]

Op GFS likes my 70 call

[CAPE]

Suppressed wave on the 12z GFS with some snow across NC on the 10th. Saw a similar outcome on the 12z GFS yesterday, although it got some light snow into the southern part of our area. Good sign imo seeing waves producing frozen to our south on guidance at this juncture. Hopefully we see more of these type outcomes over the next several days.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Op GFS likes my 70 call

That will be a toasty period, relatively speaking. Easily could see a couple days into the 60s.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Suppressed wave on the 12z GFS with some snow across NC on the 10th. Saw a similar outcome on the 12z GFS yesterday, although it got some light snow into the southern part of our area. Good sign imo seeing waves producing frozen to our south on guidance at this juncture. Hopefully we see more of these type outcomes over the next several days.

Shame its the OP. All pieces seem to be there. Even have to neg anomalies in the GOM with the pseudo 50/50 in place that isnt going too far with the massive ridge

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shame its the OP. All pieces seem to be there. Even have to neg anomalies in the GOM with the pseudo 50/50 in place that isnt going too far with the massive ridge

 

Wow that is just a stupid sized pig high.  You would think that is tough to dislodge.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shame its the OP. All pieces seem to be there. Even have to neg anomalies in the GOM with the pseudo 50/50 in place that isnt going too far with the massive ridge

 

I wouldn't say its a shame lol. The deterministic guidance should be depicting the good stuff if its going to be real- the specific details will just shift all over the place from run to run at this range.

[CAPE]

Latest GEFSX fwiw. Good overall look mid to late month, and apparently we are getting a white Christmas. 

[Eskimo Joe]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSX fwiw. Good overall look mid to late month, and apparently we are getting a white Christmas. 

I call dibs on Christmas snow thread.

[BristowWx]

I don’t recall ever having an Xmas day snow storm thread.  That is the holy grail.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I call dibs on Christmas snow thread.

Bring on BING (Crosby, that is)!! 

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap

[Cobalt]

-NAO signal on the EPS continues to get more impressive, a 3.4 sigma block appearing as a D12 mean is something.

The days leading up to this regime change don't seem particularly toasty either. Some strong + and - temp variation, but the EPS has the first 7 days of December nearing average. 

[WxUSAF]

^When the -NAO is so big it becomes a -AO

[poolz1]

Not that we have had a shortage of beautiful looks but this EPS run was stellar. ^

Very end of the run shows a retrograding tough into the east coast with a stable and stout west based block.

[Maestrobjwa]

2010? Should we be concerned, or is our collective ptsd from that year making me biased? Lolol

 

 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2010? Should we be concerned, or is our collective ptsd from that year making me biased? Lolol

 

 

It didn’t work out great for us and we have the Boxing Day fiasco, but I think we’d all roll with that chance again. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[frd]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Not that we have had a shortage of beautiful looks but this EPS run was stellar. ^

Very end of the run shows a retrograding tough into the east coast with a stable and stout west based block.

Only concern is patience. Going to take time for the trough to get established in the East, most likely by mid December.  Colder air will be slow to move in from the NW. Snow before mid December seems confined to areas far North and Northwest.

What we really need is upstream ridging and improvements from the Pac.  A - NAO, even this powerful,  does not gaurantee a sizeable snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic this time of year.  I would think by the third week of December things look more favorable for snow potential in our region. 

How long a favorable snow pattern lasts, when and if we get one, is hard to tell.  Certainly appears we will be in a period of - AO and - NAO, along with weak zonal winds during December. We also need to monitor the West based block in the weeks ahead to see how it evolves, as it will play a major role in cold air delivery and storm track.       

 

 

[frd]

Regarding the block. 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

-NAO signal on the EPS continues to get more impressive, a 3.4 sigma block appearing as a D12 mean is something.

The days leading up to this regime change don't seem particularly toasty either. Some strong + and - temp variation, but the EPS has the first 7 days of December nearing average. 

Watch us get too much of a good thing now....we smoke cirrus in mid Dec while Jacksonville gets plastered.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It didn’t work out great for us and we have the Boxing Day fiasco, but I think we’d all roll with that chance again. 

Well, since you brought it up, I will gladly take a Boxing Day redux....of course I would want this sub to partake as well.

[stormtracker]

I will not allow this until the 16th.  Sorry guys.

[IronTy]

Oh shit.  Wife just fired a CEO literally 2min ago and I was privy to it all.  Arctic express can't be far behind.  

[Lowershoresadness]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

Is Greenland really as far west as Minnesota?

[poolz1]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Only concern is patience. Going to take time for the trough to get established in the East, most likely by mid December.  Colder air will be slow to move in from the NW. Snow before mid December seems confined to areas far North and Northwest.

What we really need is upstream ridging and improvements from the Pac.  A - NAO, even this powerful,  does not gaurantee a sizeable snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic this time of year.  I would think by the third week of December things look more favorable for snow potential in our region. 

How long a favorable snow pattern lasts, when and if we get one, is hard to tell.  Certainly appears we will be in a period of - AO and - NAO, along with weak zonal winds during December. We also need to monitor the West based block in the weeks ahead to see how it evolves, as it will play a major role in cold air delivery and storm track.       

 

 

Good to hear from you man.  Patience no doubt for the both of us but the coastal plain may have to be even more patient. I did like the 12z eps not just for the burnt orange in right spots but also  the quicker release of the "handshake" between the Canadian TPV and the break-off ULL off Cali.  Resulting in a more neutral PNA.  

I get the pitfalls of parsing LR progs but the stout NAO seems like a pretty good bet. The ancillary pluses and minuses may dictate whether we need to break out snowblowers or just continue our Nina frustration. At least the beginning of this flick has grabbed our attention!