psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We can do it when ++NAO (13-14, 14-15, 92-93, 93-94). PNA is pretty untouchable. The high latitudes weren’t as hostile as you’re implying some of those years. The numerical index isn’t as important as the actual h5 pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For ease of reference, I've included the AO/PNA charts for 4"+ snowstorms for Baltimore for December, January, and February here. Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December. Also, the importance of a + PNA in Jan and Feb too, thanks for doing this Don ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The high latitudes weren’t as hostile as you’re implying some of those years. The numerical index isn’t as important as the actual h5 pattern. Didn't you have 90" of snow those years? (I wasn't here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, frd said: Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December. Also, the importance of a + PNA in Jan and Feb too, thanks for doing this Don ! Agreed, and it’s much easier to get a good snowfall out of a -pna in Jan/Feb than it is in December. It’s just not cold enough yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For ease of reference, I've included the AO/PNA charts for 4"+ snowstorms for Baltimore for December, January, and February here. Thanks again for taking the time to make this--very, very helpful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, frd said: Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December. Also, the importance of a + PNA in Jan and Feb too, thanks for doing this Don ! Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo! Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo! Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96? super positive.. #2 on record. 95-96 was after 6 straight +ENSO years 90-95 (record of this century +streak, also 89-90 and 96-97 were both -Neutral, but we didn't go La Nina 8/9 years (95-96 the exception) 89-98, which is also the longest streak of the last 200 years). After we were most negative ENSO 70-76, 76,77, 77-78, 78-79 were the coldest Winter's on record. 78-79 still ranks as #1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo! Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Didn't you have 90" of snow those years? (I wasn't here) I was up in PA in 2014. We did good but not as good as down here. I was here in 2015 and got like 55”. The mean of 2 full winter composites hides important details. look at the h5 from the 2 good January snows in 2014 That look is washed out on the mean. The AO domain h5 pattern is pretty darn good there. Now look at the Feb and March snow periods The pattern was breaking down some for the Feb storm but there was cold established, a lot of snow over across the north, and the AO isn’t awful. There is no consolidated raging TPV over the pole. March the TPV is displaced and suppressing the flow for us. I don’t consider any of those looks ++AO in a practical sense as it impacts our pattern. 2015 there was a monster full latitude EPO PNa ridge displacing and elongating the TPV. 1993 all the snow came in one storm in March from a triple phased bomb. That’s an anomaly and not a good way to try to reliably get snow 1994 our area did god awful wrt snow given how cold it was and the pac pattern. So again I don’t think it’s a good example of what you’re implying. If we have some truly god awful AO state like Jan-Feb 2020 for instance, the PNA alone wouldn’t save us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened The h5 pattern was actually degrading by the time that storm happened. But the pna and NAO combo earlier set the stage. We got lucky that a healthy enough stj wave (in a Nina no less) but not too strong that it would try to amplify too soon, came along with a healthy arctic airmass in place and bombed at the right time. The blocking really had relaxed by then and the pna was only ehh. But there was still a lingering 50/50, a arctic air mass, and a nice wave and it all came together. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Wish I saw this sooner, so I could stop looking at the models. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened The PNA was +0.289 on 1/6 and +0.447 on 1/7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Donny on the spot! You're a roll today Interesting...looks like an example of what @Bob Chillhas mentioned about the big storms coming at the relaxation, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 56 minutes ago, frd said: Wish I saw this sooner, so I could stop looking at the models. Did the intern need busy work? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 00z Icon and CMC still hint at snow chances for 12/9-12/10, GFS says nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Now, I'm still learning the colors here, but...If I ak reading this correctly, the end of the Euro looked pretty good to me (is it accurate to say the PNA improves that week and is neutral/slightly positive here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said: 00z Icon and CMC still hint at snow chances for 12/9-12/10, GFS says nope. It’s gonna get tense but we can’t speed up the time. We just need a little patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Yes patience, WB EPS 500 MB anomalies first 5 days compared to last 5 days of its run. Hopefully this look for the 13-18 will still be there as we go through this week. Still possible for a mid December to remember…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 One indicator if things are going toward the look we need for December snowstorm will be if the forecasted PNA move towards neutral begins on schedule by the end of this upcoming work week….0Z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, I'm still learning the colors here, but...If I ak reading this correctly, the end of the Euro looked pretty good to me (is it accurate to say the PNA improves that week and is neutral/slightly positive here? The PNA domain is centered over the west coast. A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east. This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Things don't look great in the mid range... And now I would not trust anything in the long range. Depressing to have models miss on what looked pretty consistent. I mean, it is guidance and weather is not something easy to predict. In the mid Atlantic the main prediction should be that it will probably not work out favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 WB 6Z GFS temp anomalies in the last 5 days of run compared to GEFS, toss the GFS. I am not an expert so I am trying to keep this simple for me. Give me freezing temperatures and then I will start tracking storms, Too busy to track a bunch of depressing rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS temp anomalies in the last 5 days of run compared to GEFS, toss the GFS. This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs We will know in a couple weeks if the GFS is the model that has the best handle on this pattern. If there is no cold air by the 15-20th timeframe it becomes Torch King or December Destroyer…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: The PNA domain is centered over the west coast. A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east. This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska. I just realized I shared the wrong image. I meant this one: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs Insert standard "Trust the warmest model" joke that's not really a joke. Normally I would ignore long range op compared to ens, but maybe the higher resolution of the op is allowing it to "see" the super persistent PNA more accurately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Love the storm on the 12z gfs tracking from Lake Erie SE to Bermuda. Minor change from 6z 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Cmc still on board for next Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 If anything, at least this gfs op run resembles what its ens have been spitting out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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