December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Kind of dried it up..  if it is not going to snow, fine with me. Things look different this run.

 

Not so fast

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Not so fast

The HP is weakening slowly and moving north by 225.  Sleety mess through 225

ETA -- Sleet storm still at 228... 1040 HP way up in N Quebec.  EZF dancing with FRZ RN but RN is close by.  998mb SLP in OH

[midatlanticweather]

I mean.. something tried to happen. Timing, luck, etc. Also, so different! The CAD at the start there was stout! Period between the 10th and 13th I guess remains interesting. 

 

[yoda]

h5 energy is pretty much going over us at 234.  SLP in W PA.  dryslot for most of us.  Transfer off Ocean City by 240

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Kind of dried it up..  if it is not going to snow, fine with me. Things look different this run.

 

The GFS simply can't resolve the battle between the Nina tendency of a -PNA, and a developing -NAO at this range. There will be some wild stuff from run to run that will change on a dime. The solutions will be all over the place. GEFS will be a little steadier, but the majority of members seem to cluster around the deterministic solution from each cycle. Not too helpful in reducing the uncertainty.

[yoda]

Nevertheless... its a frozen event for most Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.  Unfortunately it's mainly sleet and freezing rain, but we all will take what we can get

ETA -- Pivotal suggests N MD near the M/D line sees some decent snow with a BRUTAL cutoff... 0" for me, 3" in DC... 8" in BWI FWIW

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

h5 energy is pretty much going over us at 234.  SLP in W PA.  dryslot for most of us.  Transfer off Ocean City by 240

It will change in 6 hours but we could get on the board with a slop fest if the High hangs on long enough. 

 

[nj2va]

Just now, Chris78 said:

It will change in 6 hours but we could get on the board with a slop fest if the High hangs on long enough. 

 

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too.  We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week.  Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

STJ is really active for 10-12 days with retrograding NW Atlantic low.. probably all rain imo, pretty high confidence lock, but something we have not seen in a while(such a wet pattern).

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Not so fast

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath.  It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too.  We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week.  Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. 

 

[yoda]

Yeah I know its 9 days out... but there's just enough of a warm nose at 800mb that DCA mainly sits with sleet for the "event".  Rest of the column is fine lol

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. 

 

I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.  

[yoda]

Question though -- PW shows 0" for me on its 10:1 and Kuchera snow maps.  But snow depth has me over 2".  Does snow depth count sleet?

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. 

 

Yeah, that usually is the case irt model's adjusting to the block. However, PNA so neg, don't know about it this time. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. 

 

My post just above this one is suggestive of exactly this, but largely because of the conflicting signals.(-PNA teleconnects to eastern ridge, -NAO to eastern trough)

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.  

They so drool worthy tho. Better than reality.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PNA is saturated now. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days. 

[Chris78]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PNA is saturated now. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days. 

Are you Doug K? 

[CAPE]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PNA is saturated now. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days. 

Thanks Chuck. What a total buzzkill on my buzz.

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Are you Doug K? 

If this fails I blame Doug.  Damn it to hell! 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is amazing. Is there any chance you could run this for January and February?

I will do so. Hopefully, sometime this evening or tomorrow.

[frd]

 

Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

We were debating last year, and other years as well, what is the most important tele for our area  ?

For snow I think the - AO,  but many feel you need a decent Pac.  I remember many times when we had a very strong West based block, but the Pac was awful and we never cashed in. Again like you said, it is a Nina, so to be expected.  I will believe the snow potential after I measure it on my deck.  I am hopeful, but with a fair degree of skepticism.    Maybe the pattern requires more time to establish itself.  

 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

-AO. It fundamentally increases the chances that cold air masses can (frequently) move from the high latitude source regions and migrate into the midlatitudes. That is how it increases snow chances- we need the cold. A -EPO can also bring cold, but can also tend to be on the dry side and absent a -AO/NAO, the pattern is more progressive with lots of variability in storm tracks. We have to then consider the other indices, such as ENSO state and PNA phase, along with climo, to determine how much our snow chances are increased.

Problem is we’re too far south to survive any one major factor being awful. I agree the AO is the most important but it can be ruined if other things are in a bad way. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath.  It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

It’s a different wave. 

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

I don’t mind a delay by 1-2 weeks…gets us closer to prime climo.  That, and I’m at Deep Creek week between Christmas and New Years.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Problem is we’re too far south to survive any one major factor being awful. I agree the AO is the most important but it can be ruined if other things are in a bad way. 

We can do it when ++NAO (13-14, 14-15, 92-93, 93-94). PNA is pretty untouchable. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PNA is saturated now. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days. 

Squirrels are high in cholesterol.  

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

Nah I don't want it going to far into Christmas week yo...don't let some big threat show up Christmas or boxing day again, lol

Man I don't know what it is about that part of the calendar...but what December snow we have gotten in our history has almost never fallen there (what happened my birth year may have been the most with a few inches, lol) So...I'd prefer before the 25th 

[donsutherland1]

For ease of reference, I've included the AO/PNA charts for 4"+ snowstorms for Baltimore for December, January, and February here.