Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS has PNA heading in the positive direction and getting to neutral by the 13th….hopefully that verifies. That's really encouraging. I'd like to see it nose up to a +1/+2 and settle there. Obviously since we are in a La Nina base state the Pacific can only get so cooperative, but to see it trend that way is good. A raging -PNA for weeks on end would just flood us with Pacific puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The neat thing about that storm was the fact that it was just a solid cold powder event with minimal temp issues. It really illustrated how strong the blocking was setting up that winter. Ironically, I was at a geography conference in New Paltz, NY in October 2009 and there was a grad student at SUNY who was researching NAO spatial relationships with the upcoming winter. They had forecast that a NAO which went negative during the summer, and was focused near a certain lat/lon had a statistically significant correlation to above average snowfall but not necessarily temperature in the northeast US. they had gone out on a limb and said the summer of 2009 NAO matched up with a forecast of above average snowfall for the upcoming winter. I've been trying to find the conference proceedings from that event to see if I could get the presentation or locate the authors, but alas I've come up empty. Yeah that's the benchmark down here. I had 29" IMBY when all was said and done. Glory days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January. Which is probably better as far as climo goes for our region. We can snow in December obviously. Especially our here. But Jan/Feb are out bread and butter. Like I said a few days ago I would be fine with punting the NAO relaxing into early Jan. Prime climo for a bomb. Edited because Apparently my brain has confused the R and T keys for some reason. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18Z GEFS says the op is on crack by the way. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18Z GEFS says the op is on crack by the way. 00z gfs with blue and cad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 00z GFS has the 9th-10th storm - pretty solid hit especially for the central parts of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 00z GFS has the 9th-10th storm - pretty solid hit especially for the central parts of the area. Will wait on the Euro Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 00z GFS with a nice hit here! 00z CMC on the other hand gives us rain and snow for SNE, will see how this evolves. The TPV placement matters and I imagine given how volatile models have been with it this storm will flip flop a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Will wait on the Euro Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I’d just wait. It’s 180 hours but more important there are multiple waves between now and then which will impact the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I’d just wait. It’s 180 hours but more important there are multiple waves between now and then which will impact the outcome. At least this first potential threat on 9th/10th would blow up Doug Ks overall winter forecast.Just first of many upcoming runs Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I'd go with no snow through 384hr.. Higher chances next December is +PNA, at least. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 0z Euro ens and GEFS both have the wave for Dec 9-10. A decent setup as advertised. In both cases the wave weakens as it moves eastward towards the coast, more so on the EPS. Indications of another wave on its heels, esp on the EPS, which aligns with the 0z Euro op- it weakens the initial wave with a more significant one developing in the south central US and moving east a couple days later. Just at the initial stage in the evolution of the pattern at this point, and my sense on this period has been that it might offer a chance to get on the board early for some. At this point it looks like places further inland/southwest in our region might have the best shot. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 You gotta love the look at the end of the 0z EPS run. The trifecta up top with ideal west based -NAO, and just entering the better snow climo window at that point for the MA lowlands. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The next threat beyond the initial threat on the on the means. Differences between the EPS and GEFS on how things evolve 10 days out, but seeing a signal for storm potential with coastal development. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I’m a little surprised that the snow map weenie folks didn’t snap awake a few minutes ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 How do I like a like? Good to see you. Hope you’re doing well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m a little surprised that the snow map weenie folks didn’t snap awake a few minutes ago. From the 06z GFS? Looked decent for the Dec 8-10 time frame. Very nice strong HP in Quebec at the same time, so not too concerned with precip type as shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, yoda said: From the 06z GFS? Looked decent for the Dec 8-10 time frame. Very nice strong HP in Quebec at the same time, so not too concerned with precip type as shown Looks good and consistency is there for frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: You gotta love the look at the end of the 0z EPS run. The trifecta up top with ideal west based -NAO, and just entering the better snow climo window at that point for the MA lowlands. Nice look again in the eps LR. Would be cool to see this start moving up in time and not stuck out past 300hrs+ but you know the game....these looks are great on paper but it's the slightly flawed pattern perfection where we actually cash in (9th-10th ie?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 If that storm verifies then Dec. 9 is the new Dec. 5 IMBY. It would be the third time in five years that I’ve had accumulating snow on that date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: If that storm verifies then Dec. 9 is the new Dec. 5 IMBY. It would be the third time in five years that I’ve had accumulating snow on that date. It'll verify. I'm due to fly home that day from SFO. when I booked that trip in Oct I knew then it would snow one of those days that week. maybe I can make it back in time for some back end love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 10 hours ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z GEFS says the op is on crack by the way. OP runs will waffle a lot until we transition into the new pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The ensemble snow probability maps inside 10 days are not impressive yet, but I will post them if they start to light up…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The ensemble snow probability maps inside 10 days are not impressive yet, but I will post them if they start to light up…. Personally, I don't want an amped storm at the start of this pattern change. Let's just get a nice cold powder, plowable storm to get us on the board. It's going to take a bit to knock down the SE ridge and I don't want to give that thing any more juice. Plus, December climo is hostile to snow to begin with. Anything we get this early on is house money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: It'll verify. I'm due to fly home that day from SFO. when I booked that trip in Oct I knew then it would snow one of those days that week. maybe I can make it back in time for some back end love I’ll also be in SFO from 5-9 Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: I’ll also be in SFO from 5-9 Dec interesting. we may be on the same flight home. I land at 645pm IAD. should be interesting if anything actually occurs frozen. IAD does a nice job keeping things moving unless you need to de-ice. then its no mans land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: interesting. we may be on the same flight home. I land at 645pm IAD. should be interesting if anything actually occurs frozen. IAD does a nice job keeping things moving unless you need to de-ice. then its no mans land Flying AA, will be on the 4:09pm into IAD via Dallas, will adjust fire if it amounts to anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Personally, I don't want an amped storm at the start of this pattern change. Let's just get a nice cold powder, plowable storm to get us on the board. It's going to take a bit to knock down the SE ridge and I don't want to give that thing any more juice. Plus, December climo is hostile to snow to begin with. Anything we get this early on is house money. I am setting my expectations low because although the ensembles look good, you have to keep climo in mind for December: A 1-3 inch storm region wide to get on the board this winter and temps in the 30s on Christmas would be a great start to the winter. If we get better, I will be pleasantly surprised. But one should not set the bar too high in December…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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