mattie g Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare. Come on man...we're not losing anything based on a single ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Come on man...we're not losing anything based on a single ensemble run. 5 or 6 straight runs post dec 7 it is weaker. Again, just something to monitor, not the end times Eta: and it may not even make a huge difference tbh as the ser already is getting beat down by that time. Matter of how quickly it flexes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS. Yep. I was just going to add this. The whole ser linkage thing is likely temporary if it even happens at all. It is always a balancing acting with pieces in motion. The more stable look is up top at HL as has been discussed ad nauseum. So i hope nobody took my ppst as being negative whatsoever. Again, a balancing act as always. Some features will flex and be transient, others will be more stable. I as well as many have a rather optimistic outlook on what may happen moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS. It’s got a hint of that southern slider look around the 9th and 10th also. Euro showing that at 12z too but it’s way south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s got a hint of that southern slider look around the 9th and 10th also. Euro showing that at 12z too but it’s way south. Southern slide is so possible. Nothing more infuriating to me than it snowing south of me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 for the 80th time in a row...the freaking south is going to see snow first before we do 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Troughing east of Hawaii(which means increased southern stream interaction), ridge axis over Idaho, WB -NAO over Baffin Bay. Can't really ask for much more. Beautiful look for us 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Nice to see our threat windows becoming a bit more clear today. Ind ens members continue to get snowier as well. A steady march in the right direction today, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 It doesn't mean it's right, but as I said yesterday (?) the EPS has been rock-solid for days now with the RELOADED pattern while the GEFS has bounced between very similar-to-the-EPS looks and bigger -PNA looks. I don't see any reason to switch off the EPS at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: for the 80th time in a row...the freaking south is going to see snow first before we do Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? the third storm will actually be the first storm of the christmas torch pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Weeklies try to keep the party going through Christmas. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? It’ll be quite a chuckle fest around here if it goes down like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Doug K was right lots of rain through the New Year worst best pattern ever 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Doug K was right lots of rain through the New Year worst best pattern ever What does WTOP say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Not sure if you all have noticed but EPS has decent support for the December 10th threat (GEFS and GEPS too). Many members show a hit here or some even a miss to the north, I'm quite doubtful it misses that far to the south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Yeoman said: What does WTOP say? static Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 CWG is on board... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/01/december-weather-outlook-dc-cold/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Nice to see the ridge over Idaho remain and even sharpen up a bit on the EPS. That's always a good sign for east cost snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: It’ll be quite a chuckle fest around here if it goes down like that The tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth would be enough to make even the Reaper blush! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: The tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth would be enough to make the Reaper blush! I can’t believe that slight risk of heavy snow prog this far out. That is something rarely seen I would imagine. We may be on the cusp of something memorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: What does WTOP say? Was listening on the way home from work just now and they said to expect a flip to sustained cold and our first snow of the season for mid month. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just praying the pattern holds for the Xmas season and New Years. So tired of the Christmas torch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Just praying the pattern holds for the Xmas season and New Years. So tired of the Christmas torch. I’ll never forget Dev 2009. Enough snow for 2 winters…come Xmas day it was warm and rainy…almost wasn’t a white Xmas if memory serves. We are champions snow melters in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I can’t believe that slight risk of heavy snow prog this far out. That is something rarely seen I would imagine. We may be on the cusp of something memorable It says "experimental"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It says "experimental"? Yeah, it must be entirely automated. But still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 EPS has had the TPV trend more northwest in its position which allows for stronger SE ridge to take place at least initially before it breaks down as the block retrogrades towards the Baffin Bay. Doubt this would mean/affect anything, but maybe we hold onto the SER for a bit longer before it gets suppressed. Pattern still looks really good after block enters Baffin Bay, and we won't really have to worry about that. Just some food for thought, still going to enter a great pattern soon 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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