psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Two days ago it was a coastal monster. Now its 700 mikes further west . That’s not science. That’s example giving. In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible examples. What do you suggest they do to improve the guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 What do you suggest they do to improve the guidance?Stop trying to forecast 2 weeks+ on the models and stick to 7 days at a time to consolidate the processing power to a smaller window to improve accuracy Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Stop trying to forecast 2 weeks+ on the models and stick to 7 days at a time to consolidate the processing power to a smaller window to improve accuracy Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk The euro only goes to 4.5 and 10 days. Icon 5 days and 8 days. Not sure that makes them any better within the range they run. Does running extra days really limit the physics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 People simply want things that aren’t possible. It’s amazing what the models can do. Simply too much chaos and randomness to think we will be able to nail 5+ day forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 6:29 PM, psuhoffman said: @dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? Last major upgrade to the GEFS was in 2020 to version v12: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-75_gefsv12_changes.pdf There have only been minor updates since then. NOAA is currently working on the next set of significant upgrades to GFS (v17) and GEFS (v13)...more than a year away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 4:03 PM, WEATHER53 said: Two days ago it was a coastal monster. Now its 700 mikes further west . That’s not science. That’s example giving. In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible examples. Seems like there's something called blockchain everyone's interested in that literally wastes decillions of flops for mining vs. doing useful things such as climate research/modeling or medical research. Not to mention the thousands of terawatt hours of electric consumed and its impact. Sickening indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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