psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Where's Phineas? Warm wet / cold dry As reliable as the sunrise. He wised up and moved to northern NH and is busy shoveling the 20” they just got. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 A little back end snow on the 12z Euro, and looks like it may have a little something around the 27th.The Cape bomb 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry for the stream of consciousness I’m about to unleash… so many thoughts on this. It’s not a 970 low in Erie as that front runner blasts to our north. And if there was a colder thermal profile maybe the low ends up 980 over Ohio and reforms off NJ. Small adjustment. Major difference for ground truth. That still wouldn’t be a HECS here but it’s the difference between all rain and a messy 3-6” snow. You’re totally correct in the micro. Im being more macro. You’re right but what’s the goal here? We’re never gonna have a big winter relying on weak boundary waves in a progressive pattern. 2014 was a once in a lifetime luck heater wrt those. That’s never happening again. Our path to a big winter is getting some big storms and those require blocking. On the one hand it’s a Nina ya. One the other 1914, 1996, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 happened. We can get big snows in a Nina when we get blocking. So just tossing the opportunity to score big because Nina is wrong Imo. Im also biased because up here I’m never getting to a respectable winter with a few weak waves. Last year was near median for you and a bottom 10% snow year here! Some winters you think are pretty good because you got 15” from a few weak waves were the worst up here where a 20” winter is bottom 10%. But we all root for imby so I get it and don’t begrudge you at all! I’d feel the same in your shoes. But what’s the goal? We aren’t breaking out if this cycle of crap with a couple 4” progressive waves. We’re long overdue for a big winter. I think we’re hunting for different things. Lastly I’m not kicking a 3-6” snow out of bed. I enjoyed the few snows I got last year. I will again. But nothings eminent so…. But if we keep wasting -4 stdv blocks we’re in trouble in a larger snow climo sense. Yeah the goal here is different. Give me a few solid snow events and I'm good. I'll chase. If/when we get persistent blocking in a mod Nino, I will have higher expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: The Cape bomb Right where we want it at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: The Cape bomb Ok, I chuckled. No chance it's a bomb, but even you would be happy with 1-3" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not a bad look tbh. I could see this being a nice little scraper with 2-4 here, leaving Ji land high and dry. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not a bad look tbh. I could see this being a nice little scraper with 2-4 here, leaving Ji land high and dry. I'm all-in. Bring it home @CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Have we reached the point where we want the Thurs/Fri system to amplify and bomb out as far W as possible so as to set the baroclinic boundary for the next wave (CAPE Dec 27) or are we still hanging by a pube still on this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm all-in. Bring it home @CAPE I gotta ride this one till its dead. @WxUSAF has pegged it #CAPEstorm22 (second edition) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here. Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle. These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes. The fly shuts in Saskatchewan and everything changes is 20 years too old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z GEFS for NYE. Would be pretty comfy in Times Square. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GEFS for NYE. Would be pretty comfy in Times Square. Ffs I'm moving to Ukraine. At least it's cold and who knows how a nuclear winter pattern could perform. Too soon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 #EpicPatternFail #RapidBreakdown #Reload? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It'll be interesting to see the upslope potential after this storm passes by in the mountains. Probably only excited about upslope because I'm headed to Wisp from the 23rd to the 26th haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Oh shit, Sine wave graph needs updating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We need to start a new LR thread. This one lost its mojo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ffs I'm moving to Ukraine. At least it's cold and who knows how a nuclear winter pattern could perform. Too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: We need to start a new LR thread. This one lost its mojo. Good idea. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: #EpicPatternFail #RapidBreakdown #Reload? Wash, rinse, repeat until we score, or 2024… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: We need to start a new LR thread. This one lost its mojo. I thought that is what the panic room was… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Good idea. Do it. Everyone can blame me when we’re sipping mai-tais as the ball drops on NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here. Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle. These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes. The fly shuts in Saskatchewan and everything changes is 20 years too old. What gets me is after we only have two days of cold and now warms up to the lower forties but all we've been hearing about was an extended deep freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We can track this. Might be our last chance prior to the torch. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GEFS for NYE. Would be pretty comfy in Times Square. Hey remember when models were spitting out way below normal temps for pretty much all of North America from Christmas to new years? Pepperidge Farms remembers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z GEFS for NYE. Would be pretty comfy in Times Square.Below avg in the entire arctic? Give me 70s for NYE if it means a rebuild for late Jan/Early Feb, increasing the snowpacl is a massive winSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 53 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hey remember when models were spitting out way below normal temps for pretty much all of North America from Christmas to new years? Pepperidge Farms remembers. If it can do that, then it can flip to cold from warm. WE CAN DO IT. It will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Two days ago it was a coastal monster. Now its 700 mikes further west . That’s not science. That’s example giving. In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 No NAM extrapolations? I guess the towel has been thrown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 29 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: If it can do that, then it can flip to cold from warm. WE CAN DO IT. It will snow. The warm almost always verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Slight push east on gfs. Also secondary pops. Backside snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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