December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[stormtracker]

Now watch the Euro come in with what the GFS was showing.  What a switcheroo that would be. 

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now watch the Euro come in with what the GFS was showing.  What a switcheroo that would be. 

Thought things would change upon your return?

[Weather Will]

Amazing what a walk can do for your disposition…WB 12Z GEFS still has some hits.

[paulythegun]

15 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

3 camps. Extreme spread still

It's not over yet, but I think this spread is mostly just the surface details of whether a coastal takes over late and pounds interior New England

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Thought things would change upon your return?

They will...just not in December.    Claim December on your taxes, it's a write off. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can. Ensemble compared to yesterday….mean slight shift east…will keep watching until Monday… 

[TSSN+]

38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now watch the Euro come in with what the GFS was showing.  What a switcheroo that would be. 

Wouldn’t shock me if it did. Models love to play games with us. 

[Twilly05]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Pretty sick upslope for the mountains and ideal snow making conditions after the cutter - in time for the Christmas week crowds at the local ski resorts.

Yeah!

Finding the silver lining…barf

[Maestrobjwa]

I do hope we can get the pattern to reload in January...at least we could try and roll the dice again.

[IUsedToHateCold]

There’s way too much gloom in here. If the models are showing a cutter on Monday then I agree but it’s too early to call it done. 

[Buddy1987]

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now watch the Euro come in with what the GFS was showing.  What a switcheroo that would be. 

My lord it wouldn’t be the first freakin time.. I was thinking the same thing. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

My lord it wouldn’t be the first freakin time.. I was thinking the same thing. 

We don’t have to think about it much longer.  It’s a comin.  First flakes would be nice.  That can’t be asking too much.  

[olafminesaw]

I think the Euro is slightly improved through 72

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Once again we go from 5 to 8 to 28 to 8 but instead of settling at 5...we get zero

I’ve noticed. You’re not wrong. My next project it I ever get time might be to look into this further but anecdotally it seems to me that the snow gradient on the south side of storms is a lot sharper. It’s just not cold enough. When I did that snow study years ago I was kinda shocked at many of the ugly and convoluted tracks that managed a 3-6” snow in our area simply because the antecedent airmass was cold. But they became much less frequent in the records over time. They’re becoming almost extinct lately. It’s perfect track or nothing most of the time lately.  Add in the fact we’ve even managed to waste a couple percent tracks when there just wasn’t enough cold and voila were in the worst snow stretch in recorded history 

 

[TSSN+]

Euro is not digging in as much yet compared to last runs. Flatter. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro is not digging in as much yet compared to last runs. Flatter. 

Still going to be an ugly run

[stormtracker]

Altho there is some light snow at the beginning, around 117

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still going to be an ugly run

Ya but if each run keeps getting a bit flatter then maybe by Monday we will be primed lol 

[Chris78]

Gotta hope for the front runner piece to perform.

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve noticed. You’re not wrong. My next project it I ever get time might be to look into this further but anecdotally it seems to me that the snow gradient on the south side of storms is a lot sharper. It’s just not cold enough. When I did that snow study years ago I was kinda shocked at many of the ugly and convoluted tracks that managed a 3-6” snow in our area simply because the antecedent airmass was cold. But they became much less frequent in the records over time. They’re becoming almost extinct lately. It’s perfect track or nothing most of the time lately.  Add in the fact we’ve even managed to waste a couple percent tracks when there just wasn’t enough cold and voila were in the worst snow stretch in recorded history 

 

PSU The harbinger and herald of a doomed snow future...

(BTW I'm not arguing against any your points...it's just really depressing...)

[Benjamn3]

Gotta do what Oprah said. *speak it into existence*.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Altho there is some light snow at the beginning, around 117

They’re meeting in the middle. We maybe can still salvage something from this on either side but won’t know that until we get inside 72 hours for those kinds of details. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They’re meeting in the middle. We maybe can still salvage something from this on either side but won’t know that until we get inside 72 hours for those kinds of details. 

Dusting-1.5” verbatim with the arctic front. I’d take it as the pathetic addict I am.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Dusting-1.5” verbatim with the arctic front. I’d take it as the pathetic addict I am.

Start a thread 

[WxMan1]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. 
 

Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast.  But I have 2 counter points.  What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before???  Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly. 

Well said PSUHoffman. The fact that El Niño episodes are a bit less frequent "these days" is another potentially interesting by-product of climate change. 

We didn't always need to have an El Niño to get lucky with a bona-fide Miller A. It does help to have that overly active so tropical jet. But I think of the A storm in Feb 2014 -- which was during a Niña winter. 

Matter fact, I believe so many of us would take winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 -- both ENSO Niña or neutral yet PLENTY of productive Miller Bs that were able to reach us south of I-70 (those 3-6" events that we can't seem to buy these days). 

My hunch is we'll get lucky, or unlucky depending on where you live, with a slider that happens to be timed perfectly with a transient cold air surge. Much like last January. Problem with those is it's going to be quite frontogenetic -- meaning a sharp northern gradient. We happened to do well here in central AA County...areas to the south towards Fredericksburg and Southern MD even better...but that's just pure luck.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I was just thinking this. Give me an imperfect pattern and we’ll figure something out. These pretty 500 maps haven’t delivered lately. 

We've done better with blues at HL than oranges and reds in recent years. True story.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Where's Phineas?

Warm wet / cold dry

As reliable as the sunrise.

[Amped]

 

Going to be a fun day at O'hare  on one of the busiest travel days of the year.   When O'hare has to cancel flights it usually effects almost every other airport in the country.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

When you have a 970mb Low plowing into western Lake Erie, there’s no chance we remain cold enough for a thump.

I hear your points about changing climo and all that, but not every event that fails fails because of AGW.

Sorry for the stream of consciousness I’m about to unleash… so many thoughts on this.  

It’s not a 970 low in Erie as that front runner blasts to our north.  And if there was a colder thermal profile maybe the low ends up 980 over Ohio and reforms off NJ. Small adjustment. Major difference for ground truth. That still wouldn’t be a HECS here but it’s the difference between all rain and a messy 3-6” snow. 
 

You’re totally correct in the micro.  Im being more macro.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

These advertised "epic blocking" periods have produced very little other than rain in my yard since 2016. Have done much better with fairly mediocre progressive patterns where there is a mechanism to deliver some legit cold. Yep luck and timing are key but lately it has worked out(here) and don't we always need luck and timing?

You’re right but what’s the goal here?  We’re never gonna have a big winter relying on weak boundary waves in a progressive pattern. 2014 was a once in a lifetime luck heater wrt those. That’s never happening again. Our path to a big winter is getting some big storms and those require blocking. 
 

On the one hand it’s a Nina ya. One the other 1914, 1996, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 happened. We can get big snows in a Nina when we get blocking.  So just tossing the opportunity to score big because Nina is wrong Imo. 
 

Im also biased because up here I’m never getting to a respectable winter with a few weak waves. Last year was near median for you and a bottom 10% snow year here!  Some winters you think are pretty good because you got 15” from a few weak waves were the worst up here where a 20” winter is bottom 10%. But we all root for imby so I get it and don’t begrudge you at all!  I’d feel the same in your shoes. 
 

But what’s the goal?  We aren’t breaking out if this cycle of crap with a couple 4” progressive waves.  We’re long overdue for a big winter. I think we’re hunting for different things. 
 

Lastly I’m not kicking a 3-6” snow out of bed. I enjoyed the few snows I got last year. I will again.  But nothings eminent so…. But if we keep wasting -4 stdv blocks we’re in trouble in a larger snow climo sense. 

[CAPE]

A little back end snow on the 12z Euro, and looks like it may have a little something around the 27th.