psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It really is. H5 maps are nice, just 500 miles too far west. . Maybe this storm sets something up after My fear for after is this system pulls north and retrogrades, stalled from progressing by the link up of the WAR and NAO. So we’re left in the exact same conundrum. Weak waves are likely squashed since were directly under the TPV but anything stronger that phases cuts since there is nothing to prevent it from pumping ridging to the North Pole in front. ETA: it could work, but would require luck with exact placement of features and phasing. Been a long time since we got lucky. Some here subscribe to the were due index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: My fear for after is this system pulls north and retrogrades, stalled from progressing by the link up of the WAR and NAO. So we’re left in the exact same conundrum. Weak waves are likely squashed since were directly under the TPV but anything stronger that phases cuts since there is nothing to prevent it from pumping ridging to the North Pole in front. It's almost like we need a new non-traditional way to get snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Don't see the 27th threat at all on 12z GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We get a cold Xmas regardless. Time to focus on the 27th.Can't wait 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Pretty sick upslope for the mountains and ideal snow making conditions after the cutter - in time for the Christmas week crowds at the local ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Don't see the 27th threat at all on 12z GFS OPThe Canucks and DT have it, maybe.But by then it will cut as well or OTS.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My fear for after is this system pulls north and retrogrades, stalled from progressing by the link up of the WAR and NAO. So we’re left in the exact same conundrum. Weak waves are likely squashed since were directly under the TPV but anything stronger that phases cuts since there is nothing to prevent it from pumping ridging to the North Pole in front. New climo worries no doubt. The warm pool is killing us and has been for years. Add to that the lack of a 50/50 and ideal ridge placement out West and we fail. On paper the pattern looks great, but when you look deeper the little things are preventing us from scoring. The little cause cause huge implications. We just finished the first 15 days of December with a record - AO and ideal block North of Alaska, but we fail again. I imagine in the future I will not to get too excited when the indicies look awesome because it means very little at out lattitude. I admit I was wrong, I was very confident we would score at least a WSW critieria storm. Later this month faces the same issues of now. We might exit December with very little snow, such sadness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: It's almost like we need a new non-traditional way to get snow around here. No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast. But I have 2 counter points. What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before??? Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What was that turd in the punchbowl? Guess it'll be Garret county for Christmas afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sigh. Time to root for something on the front end or snow showers with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Don't see the 27th threat at all on 12z GFS OP The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after. Kinda like with the big Plains low we just had, this 23rd storm has to be nailed down before we can figure out how it adjusts the wave guide and impacts anything after. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Icky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I guess we should be happy it still rains, I don’t know how the Western part of the country is going to make Subject: Disaster scenarios raise the stakes for Colorado River negotiations - The Washington Posthttps://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/17/colorado-river-crisis-conference/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast. But I have 2 counter points. What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before??? Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly. Once again we go from 5 to 8 to 28 to 8 but instead of settling at 5...we get zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast. But I have 2 counter points. What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before??? Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly. When you have a 970mb Low plowing into western Lake Erie, there’s no chance we remain cold enough for a thump. I hear your points about changing climo and all that, but not every event that fails fails because of AGW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Icky 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Icky Welp, that should just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Still time for adjustments. Agreed. Too early to give up altogether, but it is probably a good time to temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It will probably shift east again to at least tease us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after. Especially withe EPO going solidily positive right after Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Making a run at 70 for NYE. That’s holly and jolly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after. That TPV won't be getting stuck. Things look to transition pretty quickly with some shakeup in the pattern. The boundary will be close enough to our SE for a time. The 0z CMC ens has a pretty strong signal for the 27-28th, and there is some indication on the EPS. Not KU hunting here lol, but a modest wave with enough cold still in place could get some of us on the board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ji said: It will probably shift east again to at least tease us Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 These advertised "epic blocking" periods have produced very little other than rain in my yard since 2016. Have done much better with fairly mediocre progressive patterns where there is a mechanism to deliver some legit cold. Yep luck and timing are key but lately it has worked out(here) and don't we always need luck and timing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Can JI cancel winter now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Making a run at 70 for NYE. That’s holly and jolly Imagine Time's Square for the big drop looking like a luau lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Can JI cancel winter now? Not yet, but probably just a few days away from cancelling all of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 camps. Extreme spread still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: These advertised "epic blocking" periods have produced very little other than rain in my yard since 2016. Have done much better with fairly mediocre progressive patterns where there is a mechanism to deliver some legit cold. Yep luck and timing are key but lately it has worked out(here) and don't we always need luck and timing? I was just thinking this. Give me an imperfect pattern and we’ll figure something out. These pretty 500 maps haven’t delivered lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now