December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it looks more gfs like with the h5 energy over Canada. It rolls it out east and doesn’t just sit there and then rotate .

The PNA concerns me by the end of the run however unless someone corrects me. Much more flat rather than tall like the gfs. There’s so many dang pieces in this setup…

[frd]

Eric Webb is maintaining this is a nothing burger for the East.  

 

From Eric: < This just flat out isn't a good setup for a big coastal snowstorm in the NE US & hasn't looked like one for several days, despite all the snow output from the GFS & GEFS. Sure, you could get some snow out of it on the backend because of how strong/deep the arctic air mass is, but this isn't a good look for a big storm for the 95 corridor.

 

-NAO & big OH Valley trough is there, but no 50-50 low anywhere in sight and the ridge in the western US has been too far west for at least the 4 days of model runs (even on the GEFS) >> Interior & Great Lakes very very heavily favored. I highly doubt that changes enough to matter at all here. > .

 

 

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

A little humor, hope I don’t offend sorry for the banter

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro' the forum,
Not a creature was stirring, not even storm banter;
The forum stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that Bob Chill soon would be there;
The members were nestled all snug in Ji’s care,
While visions of frontal passages danc'd in their heads,
And Mappy in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a short sun angle’s winter's nap
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see H2O’s banter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters, and viewed the brown lawn.
The moon on the breast of a new storm gone wrong,
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below;
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But Bob Chill’s sleigh, and eight tiny rein-deer,
With a little old driver, it was not a stunner,
I knew in a moment it had to be an apps runner.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and call'd them by name:
"Now! Bristow, now! Leesburg, now! Cape, and Stormchaser
"On! Wiggum, on! Weather Will, on! Eskimo Joe and Terpeast
"To the top of the front! to the top of the strong block!
"Now dash to the ridge and to top of the trough!"
As dry leaves before the negative NAO to fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;
So up to the house-top the weenies they flew,
With the sleigh full of Toys - and Stormchaser Chuck too:
And then in a twinkling, I heard on the fireplace flue
The storm the he promised and a Arctic front too.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down the chimney Bob Chill came with a bound:
He was dress'd all in cliches, from his head to his crown,
And his clothes were tarnished from what just went down.
A bundle of toys was flung on his back,
But he look'd like a peddler without a backpack :
His eyes - how they twinkled! his dimples how merry,
His cheeks were like costal runners, his nose like a frontal bummer;
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was like an occluded frontal show;
The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled like a Norlun Trough wreath.
He had a broad face, and an Apps Runner too
That shook when he laugh'd, as the dry cold front blew through:
He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf,
And I laugh'd when I saw him as the Climo went stealth;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave me to know that it would be snow.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And fill'd all the stockings; with sleet like a jerk,
And laying his finger aside of his nose
And giving a nod, up the frontal passage he rose.
He sprung to his sleigh, to his team gave a shout,
And away they all flew, like the rain through the downspout
But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight-
Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

Bloody brilliant!

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[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Eric Webb is maintaining this is a nothing burger for the East.  

 

From Eric: < This just flat out isn't a good setup for a big coastal snowstorm in the NE US & hasn't looked like one for several days, despite all the snow output from the GFS & GEFS. Sure, you could get some snow out of it on the backend because of how strong/deep the arctic air mass is, but this isn't a good look for a big storm for the 95 corridor.

 

-NAO & big OH Valley trough is there, but no 50-50 low anywhere in sight and the ridge in the western US has been too far west for at least the 4 days of model runs (even on the GEFS) >> Interior & Great Lakes very very heavily favored. I highly doubt that changes enough to matter at all here. > .

 

 

 

 

Sure if you’re hunting for a KU that’s not a good setup. But hard to say it’s a nothing burger for the east at this time….we could score frozen out of this setup even in the 95 corridor. . And mountains / far western areas could be in for more depending on track, etc. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Bloody brilliant!

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Thanks 

[Prismshine Productions]

The PNA concerns me by the end of the run however unless someone corrects me. Much more flat rather than tall like the gfs. There’s so many dang pieces in this setup…

Flatter than the GFS but taller than 6zNAM

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[frd]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sure if you’re hunting for a KU that’s not a good setup. But hard to say it’s a nothing burger for the east at this time….we could score frozen out of this setup even in the 95 corridor. . And mountains / far western areas could be in for more depending on track, etc. 

Yes, he posted a composite of KU storms.  Thats a little unfair, especially when very few KU happen in the East during when you have a Nina. 

[jayyy]

Yeah but when you are getting into late December, it is becoming our climo wheelhouse. The days will be the shortest they are all year. 

Not really. We rarely see December snow anymore, especially significant snow. It’s not about the amount of daylight. It’s about the cold air masses and being in the heart of winter. Late January into February is our climo wheelhouse. Especially for a MECS/SECS/HECS

[Round Hill WX]

25 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah but when you are getting into late December, it is becoming our climo wheelhouse. The days will be the shortest they are all year. 

When you consider since 1888, the Washington DC reporting station has only had snow on the ground 19 times on Christmas Day, late December still isn’t our wheelhouse. From a climo sense its more likely the 23rd storm favors the interior. Hope I’m wrong.

[Lowershoresadness]

when you guys west of the bay get a KU storm I get a FU storm. lets get a region wide 3-6 storm while I open my underwear and socks on xmass day

[brooklynwx99]

FWIW the ICON still looks to be in the GFS's camp

[87storms]

Would be pretty lame to get skunked in December given that there has absolutely 100% been cold  around (or attainable) for the entire last year going back to November '21.  Another battle is against the GOM and Atlantic temps which still seem to be on the warmer side of the anomalies (though I don't how much that would impact interior sections). 

Re the storm prospects, looks like there's a way to score with that initial wave/overrunning on the GFS before a flip, and then again on the tail end as the front sweeps through.

[Prismshine Productions]

Not really. We rarely see December snow anymore, especially significant snow. It’s not about the amount of daylight. It’s about the cold air masses and being in the heart of winter. Late January into February is our climo wheelhouse. Especially for a MECS/SECS/HECS

Blizzard of 73 in South Carolina happened in February
2010 had that February snow

So this has been a case for awhile

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[BristowWx]

24 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Thanks 

You made me a reindeer.  Thank you sir.  Drinks are me

[Prismshine Productions]

when you guys west of the bay get a KU storm I get a FU storm. lets get a region wide 3-6 storm while I open my underwear and socks on xmass day

This

Even if not a blizzard, let the whole forum score SOMETHING for Christmas

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[yoda]

12z ICON won't make any friends at 120

[snowmagnet]

33 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Thanks 

That was hilarious!  Really creative! We need a good laugh after the roller coaster ride! 

[Prestige Worldwide]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON won't make any friends at 120

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

That was hilarious!  Really creative! We need a good laugh after the roller coaster ride! 

Thanks 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON won't make any friends at 120

Nice warm heavy rain event!

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Nice warm heavy rain event!

Tornado Watches. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Tornado Watches. 

Thursday night severe lol... 60 degrees

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Thursday night severe lol... 60 degrees

Imagine an H5 map like the ICON during the severe season. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON won't make any friends at 120

From Volkswagen to Volvo

[yoda]

Cold Christmas Eve though in the 20s... sad trombone prize

 

[stormtracker]

So far, doesn't look like the GFS is backing down

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So far, doesn't look like the GFS is backing down

If anything the northern vorticity looks a bit stronger 

[Terpeast]

OH valley ridge slightly weaker and trough “bridge” starting to appear north of MN & MI. GFS still appears to be digging into its own camp. (At 48h)

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ridging out west is getting flatter each run. Subtle but Looping last 6 runs its noticeable. Going to be a challenge to keep this one along/off the coast. Just my preliminary thoughts. I keep saying by Sunday I would committ one way of the other. Still time to go and still sone opportunity even with an inland track for some frozen for many.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, doesn't look like the GFS is backing down

Wrt the TPV in Canada it’s not. That’s good.  I think there is a reasonable chance the Gfs is more right there. The reason I’m not more bullish on this setup is even if the Gfs scores the coup there…and the tpv sides east on top…it still stalls west of ideal and the pna is west of where we want and with mo 50/50…it would still be a struggle to prevent a cutter. Just might cut up the Apps not to Chicago.  But with a more Gfs progression we might have a better shot with a thump on the front or 1-2” on the back. So it’s better. Hope I’m wrong and this trends to a HECS but I’d be rooting for that lead wave as our best shot to get on the board.