December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[nj2va]

There’s more than a handful of EPS members that have coastal lows in positions similar to the GEFS, but mean certainly favors the cutter track.  With this spread, hard for anyone here to declare what will happen 5-6 days from now.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS

[jayyy]

Hope the GEFS is real. I would lock that up right now.

We are a week away, which is in the GEFS’s wheelhouse. That’s all we really need to know for now. It’s consistency, to me, is encouraging. The surface depiction will change 100 more times between now and showtime on the operational.

I know folks are salivating for snow, especially a significant event, but I really wish some peeps would chill out on the run to run bridge jumping from this far out. There were two “pattern wasted” and “winters over” posts already this morning and it’s only 8 AM

Everyone needs to read Bob’s comment above. Most storms with complex evolutions end up sneaking up on us around the D3-D5 range on operational models. That’s the simple truth. And the reason truly is simple. They are not really capable of working out so much complex data from a week or more out. They are simply spitting out wide ranges of solutions - which is why there’s almost always everything from a massive blizzard to complete fails on any given run.

There are just SO. MANY. MOVING. PIECES. in a complicated setup like this. Some folks thinking OP models can nail minute details from a week out which make all the difference between a 2-4” and 6-12” type storm are literally begging for a letdown.

The only storms that really get sniffed out early, especially by all guidance, are simple / consolidated southern stream events - such as 01/2016. There’s not much to work out there. A favorable environment (usually around the Gulf) for low development and an entrenched dome of cold air? Check. Much more simple than worrying about splitting TPVs which have to round the base of a 50/50 block, stream phases, Miller b’s with coastal low redevelopment, etc.

The sooner folks learn these truths, the less heartache they’ll feel. Tracking these storms 4 times a day for 7-10 days without understanding what bob mentioned above is quite literally BEGGING for a letdown.

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s more than a handful of EPS members that have coastal lows in positions similar to the GEFS, but mean certainly favors the cutter track.  With this spread, hard for anyone here to declare what will happen 5-6 days from now.

 

How does this compare to 00z in regards to coastal lows?

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gotta get this within day 5. Waste of time until then. 
 

 

This. People here are like human pendulums.  Tomorrow evening, Monday is when things become pretty clear/set and even then....

[yoda]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s more than a handful of EPS members that have coastal lows in positions similar to the GEFS, but mean certainly favors the cutter track.  With this spread, hard for anyone here to declare what will happen 5-6 days from now.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How does this compare to 00z in regards to coastal lows?

[Weather Will]

Maybe I am misunderstanding these pressure maps, but EPS took a big shift at 6Z toward a coastal compared to 0Z.

[smokeybandit]

I love a good storm as much as anyone, but this one has me on edge because I am visiting family in State College PA late next week and fly out of Baltimore for a Florida vacation on the 23rd.

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

I would consider that an improvement. 

[jayyy]

Solid jump in the GEFS’s direction by the EPS


.

[Terpeast]

Possible that both camps are not wrong. 

Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

EPS trended favorably

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

Have a feeling eps/gefs will continue to merge and final solution will be smack dab in the middle. Could be a track like Hatteras->Assateague->Wilminton DE to Apps sort of thing with a lobe of LP hanging back near MI. Actually thus what hinted at by guidance recently as 36 hrs ago.

[Ralph Wiggum]

35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s more than a handful of EPS members that have coastal lows in positions similar to the GEFS, but mean certainly favors the cutter track.  With this spread, hard for anyone here to declare what will happen 5-6 days from now.

 

Definitely not set in stone but pretty sure we are just beginning to see the general idea of how this may play out. 

 

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS

From an avocado going under us to a Kiwi skirting to the North. I had enough fruits and veggies on the models for the week.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Have a feeling eps/gefs will continue to merge and final solution will be smack dab in the middle. Could be a track like Hatteras->Assateague->Wilminton DE to Apps sort of thing with a lobe of LP hanging back near MI. Actually thus what hinted at by guidance recently as 36 hrs ago.

That’s what I’m thinking/hoping will happen. That little lead frontrunner wave across the gulf shore might get going and suck some energy out of it. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Possible that both camps are not wrong. 

Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

This does make the most sense if there is a block to our north in Eastern Canada.  Your statement makes the most sense to me, "Possible that both camps are not wrong.  Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal. 

[jayyy]

I would consider that an improvement. 

This is what “I don’t know what the fuck is going to happen” looks like in a visual representation. That low pressure spread is ridonculous!

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Possible that both camps are not wrong. 

Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

Exactly! I just posted these thoughts, you may have ninja'd me before I got down to your post.

[yoda]

Just give me a couple inches. 1-2 is fine. Do i want more? Of course.  But a few inches right before Christmas is an automatic win with cold air right behind

 

[Benjamn3]

Just now, yoda said:

Just give me a couple inches. 1-2 is fine. Do i want more? Of course.  But a few inches right before Christmas is an automatic win with cold air right behind

 

My thoughts as well. Have some mood flakes and cold and I would be very thankful. 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Just give me a couple inches. 1-2 is fine. Do i want more? Of course.  But a few inches right before Christmas is an automatic win with cold air right behind

 

Depending on what the main show does that front runner might be the main show for us lol.

You can kind of see that on the icon at 120. The front runner to the south seemed poised to head north and give us some snow.

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Have a feeling eps/gefs will continue to merge and final solution will be smack dab in the middle. Could be a track like Hatteras->Assateague->Wilminton DE to Apps sort of thing with a lobe of LP hanging back near MI. Actually thus what hinted at by guidance recently as 36 hrs ago.

Would that be able to manage some frozen in that scenario?

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Depending on what the main show does that front runner might be the main show for us lol.

You can kind of see that on the icon at 120. The front runner to the south seemed poised to head north and give us some snow.

If there’s some sort of general meeting in the middle between the Euro/GGEM and gfs solutions, there’s a variety of ways we could get *some* frozen precip. Whether that’s on the front end or with the arctic front at the end or both. 

[SnowGolfBro]

The cluster of lows near the benchmark on the 6z EPS is encouraging. To steal from the CWG:

Less than 1”…..20%
1-3………………..30%
3-6……………….40%
Und BECS?……10%

This is my first preliminary early call minus a map with some weenieism factored in, subject to change “forecast”.

[Buddy1987]

12z Nam is really not all that much different from what I can see at HR63, comparing it to the 6z Gfs. The s/w is a little more aggressive in wanting to dig if I had to pick something there. 

[Round Hill WX]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Possible that both camps are not wrong. 

Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

From a December climo perspective that is the most likely outcome. Especially favoring the interior areas. Climo is king. 

[Interstate]

Just now, Round Hill WX said:

From a December climo perspective that is the most likely outcome. Especially favoring the interior areas. Climo is king. 

Yeah but when you are getting into late December, it is becoming our climo wheelhouse. The days will be the shortest they are all year. 

[snowmagnet]

I think most of us would be happy with 3-6 just before Christmas. I think that seems a reasonable request. We can hold off for our HECS until Jan/Feb. 

[Solution Man]

A little humor, hope I don’t offend sorry for the banter

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro' the forum,
Not a creature was stirring, not even storm banter;
The forum stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that Bob Chill soon would be there;
The members were nestled all snug in Ji’s care,
While visions of frontal passages danc'd in their heads,
And Mappy in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a short sun angle’s winter's nap
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see H2O’s banter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters, and viewed the brown lawn.
The moon on the breast of a new storm gone wrong,
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below;
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But Bob Chill’s sleigh, and eight tiny rein-deer,
With a little old driver, it was not a stunner,
I knew in a moment it had to be an apps runner.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and call'd them by name:
"Now! Bristow, now! Leesburg, now! Cape, and Stormchaser
"On! Wiggum, on! Weather Will, on! Eskimo Joe and Terpeast
"To the top of the front! to the top of the strong block!
"Now dash to the ridge and to top of the trough!"
As dry leaves before the negative NAO to fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;
So up to the house-top the weenies they flew,
With the sleigh full of Toys - and Stormchaser Chuck too:
And then in a twinkling, I heard on the fireplace flue
The storm the he promised and a Arctic front too.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down the chimney Bob Chill came with a bound:
He was dress'd all in cliches, from his head to his crown,
And his clothes were tarnished from what just went down.
A bundle of toys was flung on his back,
But he look'd like a peddler without a backpack :
His eyes - how they twinkled! his dimples how merry,
His cheeks were like costal runners, his nose like a frontal bummer;
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was like an occluded frontal show;
The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled like a Norlun Trough wreath.
He had a broad face, and an Apps Runner too
That shook when he laugh'd, as the dry cold front blew through:
He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf,
And I laugh'd when I saw him as the Climo went stealth;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave me to know that it would be snow.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And fill'd all the stockings; with sleet like a jerk,
And laying his finger aside of his nose
And giving a nod, up the frontal passage he rose.
He sprung to his sleigh, to his team gave a shout,
And away they all flew, like the rain through the downspout
But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight-
Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

12z Nam is really not all that much different from what I can see at HR63, comparing it to the 6z Gfs. The s/w is a little more aggressive in wanting to dig if I had to pick something there. 

Ya it looks more gfs like with the h5 energy over Canada. It rolls it out east and doesn’t just sit there and then rotate .

[WesternFringe]

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The cluster of lows near the benchmark on the 6z EPS is encouraging. To steal from the CWG:

Less than 1”…..20%
1-3………………..30%
3-6……………….40%
Und BECS?……10%

This is my first preliminary early call minus a map with some weenieism factored in, subject to change “forecast”.

Without a map or location stated for your forecast, you can just adjust where it was for afterwards and claim victory.