frd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: The pattern might just morph from one favorable configuration to another, like the CFS is suggesting. Not typically how things roll, but this could be one of those winters. Did you happen to check out the extended, GFS? It shows a continuation of blocking. According to HM the mechanisms to support the North Atlantic blocking are supposed to cycle and repeat. You also have to wonder if what occurred in the southern hemisphere during winter is going to occur in the northern hemisphere during our winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That block is unreal. I mean you cant really ask for a better look as far as East Coast snowstorms go. The block backs over Baffin as this Gefs run moves to mid month as the block weakens as well. That is probably our prime window to get hammered. A weakening block with it retrograding over Baffin just screams beatdown for us. When I was calling out the mid December period a couple of weeks ago it was pure speculation. It is starting to get more real now IMO. I'll be the first to admit I don't know how to read a map, but wouldn't that trough east of Hawaii suggest some southern stream interaction? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'll be the first to admit I don't know how to read a map, but wouldn't that trough east of Hawaii suggest some southern stream interaction? Yes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'll be the first to admit I don't know how to read a map, but wouldn't that trough east of Hawaii suggest some southern stream interaction? yeah, that's why you actually want a -PNA... you get really robust shortwaves crashing onto the WC that get trapped under the block, and the ridging near AK drives northern stream shortwaves southward to phase it's such a good pattern 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Wow, have not seen a AO forecast like this in December for many a year. Usually it is going towards + 4. Bring on winter ! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 If the block overperforms first half of Dec, I'll prob be staying at smith mtn most of the month 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the winter based on historical analogs: In the replies, he also added: "of the years were La Nina going by the monthly 3.4 value. 1995, 2010, 1962, 1970. All 4 had a -NAO January, 2 of the 4 had negative Jan and Feb" 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 -AO hitting -3 or -4 in December also bodes well for January and beyond. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the block overperforms first half of Dec, I'll prob be staying at smith mtn most of the month nice subtle hint at suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: -AO hitting -3 or -4 in December also bodes well for January and beyond. AO is the key and not the NAO for longer term stable winter patterns in the east. NAO domain space can make numerical readings muddy. Focusing on the NAO is 2 weeks out tops (imo only). AO is the granddaddy beyond that. I found an old attachment in my files. This isn't the better stuff I put together but it's a great snapshot. Basically, a Dec ao reading below 1.5 pretty much locks in more blocking. Pretty classic look rn and a lot of classic data to get excited about. At least for being squarely in the game. Actual production has less to do with the AO and more to do with our dicey location. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 2010 analog keeps popping up... I wouldn't dare suggest 95-96 yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 2010 analog keeps popping up... I wouldn't dare suggest 95-96 yet. You know you want to Now what would will make ya push that button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: nice subtle hint at suppression Counterintuitive in Dec but man, upper levels gon crazy it seems. Also, a honking -2.5 or deeper NAO is not good here. That's not when it commomly snows. Always gotta wait for the relax towards neutral. If a big -nao just parks and wobbles, a lot of people will change their mind with exactly how much -nao they want in their Wheaties lol 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Counterintuitive in Dec but man, upper levels gon crazy it seems. Also, a honking -2.5 or deeper NAO is not good here. That's not when it commomly snows. Always gotta wait for the relax towards neutral. If a big -nao just parks and wobbles, a lot of people will change their mind with exactly how much -nao they want in their Wheaties lol Congrats Orville and Wilbur Wright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2010 analog keeps popping up... I wouldn't dare suggest 95-96 yet. I'm wondering if a 1960s analog is entering the chat. And to get even crazier, maybe this is the beginning of a 60s type teleconnection cycle... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm wondering if a 1960s analog is entering the chat. And to get even crazier, maybe this is the beginning of a 60s type teleconnection cycle... Would be nice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 JMA weeklies..... Yikes ! FYI.... I rotated the image aleady. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm wondering if a 1960s analog is entering the chat. And to get even crazier, maybe this is the beginning of a 60s type teleconnection cycle... Was just looking over that decade...I mean wow, to think the "runts" of that litter were 18" and 19", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: JMA weeklies..... Yikes ! FYI.... I rotated the image aleady. Who doesn't love snow in Cuba 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 ^that JMA block is so big is almost an eastern ridge.......that can't happen can it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Wonder if the real cold arrives later in the month, or in early Jan. with a more robust - EPO reload. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Check this out - not only highly unusual over Greenland, but notice the split flow mid month on the animation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was just looking over that decade...I mean wow, to think the "runts" of that litter were 18" and 19", lol Times have changed and our area would lose on the margins or marginal events. Hard to reminisce about 60s winters nowadays because the base state that made it all possible is gone. However, a warming planet also increases moisture content. We're seeing that all over the place in real time with epic flooding and even minor storms dumping an unexpected ocean small areas. So cold/wet periods are likely to be more wet than before. That can offset climo lines shifting north when the pattern is ripe. Boom and bust will only get boomier and bustier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 @frd when teles are rockin already, we don't want the arctic hounds. Especially in Jan. The see saw can saw right down to Raleigh when everything lines up in anomalous fashion. Artic air is dry AF too. Look back on years with cross polar and a west based block. There are a few since 1970 and they are all mostly dry here and to our north. Grit and Raleigh wx and SE crew root for different stuff. When they love what they see we usually "just like it until it breaks our hearts" lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Btw, anyone else notice the pseudo 50/50 signal trending on the GEFS? Just thought that was a cool feature to see on a smoothed means at range: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^that JMA block is so big is almost an eastern ridge.......that can't happen can it? Better hope it's wrong actually. Don't won't a nao ser linkage, of which has happened a few times in recent years, and that looks close to a possible occurrence, imo. Used to be very rare back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Counterintuitive in Dec but man, upper levels gon crazy it seems. Also, a honking -2.5 or deeper NAO is not good here. That's not when it commomly snows. Always gotta wait for the relax towards neutral. If a big -nao just parks and wobbles, a lot of people will change their mind with exactly how much -nao they want in their Wheaties lol and not as subtle hint of suppression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Btw, anyone else notice the pseudo 50/50 signal trending on the GEFS? Just thought that was a cool feature to see on a smoothed means at range: Don't like those high heights in the Gulf. Hope that's exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^that JMA block is so big is almost an eastern ridge.......that can't happen can it? It does occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Don't like those high heights in the Gulf. Hope that's exaggerated. We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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