Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 4 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 Someone should seriously start a betting website for weather. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. I was telling myself the same thing. I’d be happy to see a slight shift to the GFS idea though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. Ole Yeller, never gives in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet.P21 please and thank you . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean.I've seen the gefs change on a dime when the op model does. Consistency does not mean right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February Doug K. Rejoicing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean. I've seen the gefs change on a dime when the op model does. Consistency does not mean right When the GFS had its bad 12Z run, the low pressure tracks did not all shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February The threats behind it lol. We don’t even know if this one is right let alone what’s behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February Not true: JMA, GEFS extended, EURO weeklies, CFSV2 all show a reload in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Not true: JMA, GEFS extended, EURO weeklies, CFSV2 all show a reload in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Here is the WB EURO weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: Here is the WB EURO weeklies. Damn. That's a 32 day average? Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Damn. That's a 32 day average? Looks good to me Yup….not a torch. Look, it may be wrong but the guidance I have reviewed does not indicate a prolonged January thaw or that winter is over after the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks to be sticking to its solution through hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Looks to be sticking to its solution through hour 54 Yeah, don’t see major changes through 63 vs 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 True but look at GFS v EURO same time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The vort over AK is sharper on this run at 81H…not sure what it means down the road but thats a step towards GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 re: Euro. Welp...goodnight folks. We'll try again with 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The difference in the gfs and the euro is the gfs rolls out the vort which creates a block for the second piece of energy, the euro just makes the whole vort rotate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Burn the tape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Burn the tape Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It will be interesting to see which one folds… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: It will be interesting to see which one folds… Unfortunately probably the one starting with a G. On other note, nothing says Christmas like a QLCS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still a crazy amount of cold behind that system.. 30F departures below normal from the Gulf of Mexico to the Montana/Canadian border. As per Euro, DCA challenges the record cold max for the 24th set in 1989 of 23F (25F on Euro), and the 4th coldest Christmas high w/ 26F as depicted. If it can't be snowy, at least some anomalous cold will make Christmas feel "wintry". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I believe the 06z ICON continues a good trend, no? The ridge out west is further east and the s/w isn't digging that far westward. Granted only goes out to 120 I'm comparing 06z 120 to 00z 114 h5 charts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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