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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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Solid improvements at 500MB on the 00z gfs versus the 18z and thus far the 0z NAM ICON CMC, while not where the GFS is whatsoever, all trended in its direction @ 500mb instead of the opposite way. Some more than others.

If this was D3 or D4 I’d be pretty worried, but we still have a ton of time left for models to iron out what’s going to transpire with the TPV. The important part (as far as this storms evolution is concerned) is entering the GFS’s wheelhouse. And while we are WAY too far out to examine the end result on the NAM, we are entering the range in which it should begin to hone in on what’s going to happen out near Alaska as well. If it looks like the GFS @ 500mb at 00z tomorrow, that’s a great sign of things to come as we get closer. The fact that it looks much more like the GFS through 60 hours than the CMC can only be viewed as a positive.

Have a feeling 0z tomorrow is when we start to see models eliminate the more extreme solutions and zero in on a tighter solution envelop. Perhaps it’s not a KU, but I’d sure as shit take a solid 3-6/4-8” area wide storm on Christmas eve - especially with arctic air and another threat - albeit smaller - right on its heels.


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