MillvilleWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just a quick check-in before bed. I mentioned yesterday there will be multiple ways to obtain snowfall for the region in this pattern. Even a cutter with a massive arctic front would likely produce snow squalls and whiten the place up for the holidays. Big storms need everything to go right. That’s obviously still on the table, but probalistically that’s not the most viable solution. GFS was a solid compromise this evening. Also, keep an eye on that initial SLP ahead of the digging 5H trough. That’s a way to squeeze an advisory level snow out before even looking at the main show everyone is hoping. Solid look on guidance this evening. Still 7+ days away. A lot of time and I doubt we’ve seen the real solution at any point. 21 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 If the GFS scores the coup, is it crowned the new Winter King? Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS through 120 has a stronger blocking TPV lobe north of the great lakesSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: If the GFS scores the coup, is it crowned the new Winter King? Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Euro won’t go down without a fight. I’ll have to wake up later for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: GEFS through 120 has a stronger blocking TPV lobe north of the great lakes Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Was just about to post that. I like this GEFS run so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 ICON is very similar to the GFS. Just about 12 hrs quicker and 100 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ridge on the west coast on the GEFS has been trending west the past few runs which, which has allowed a bit separation between the two waves, but has also allowed our diving wave to be more west also. Ideally, we would like to see it trend back stronger and a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Nice qpf bump on 0Z GEFS. 0Z 18Z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS low track mean does not trend west this run…at 18Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1pm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 That’s a pretty sweet GEFS run. I like the lack of a trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 1pm I like the look on the 24 hr precip panels compared to 18z. Definitely more of a coastal presentation on the precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Best GEFS run yet… 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Solid improvements at 500MB on the 00z gfs versus the 18z and thus far the 0z NAM ICON CMC, while not where the GFS is whatsoever, all trended in its direction @ 500mb instead of the opposite way. Some more than others. If this was D3 or D4 I’d be pretty worried, but we still have a ton of time left for models to iron out what’s going to transpire with the TPV. The important part (as far as this storms evolution is concerned) is entering the GFS’s wheelhouse. And while we are WAY too far out to examine the end result on the NAM, we are entering the range in which it should begin to hone in on what’s going to happen out near Alaska as well. If it looks like the GFS @ 500mb at 00z tomorrow, that’s a great sign of things to come as we get closer. The fact that it looks much more like the GFS through 60 hours than the CMC can only be viewed as a positive. Have a feeling 0z tomorrow is when we start to see models eliminate the more extreme solutions and zero in on a tighter solution envelop. Perhaps it’s not a KU, but I’d sure as shit take a solid 3-6/4-8” area wide storm on Christmas eve - especially with arctic air and another threat - albeit smaller - right on its heels. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: That’s a pretty sweet GEFS run. I like the lack of a trend west. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looking at the member LPs, there’s some bombs in there. A few sub 980s at our latitude, hello. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. That would be dynamic. Check out the temps 60s Overnight to teens by afternoon. My preference is the gfs lol but the cmc would be a pretty wild weather day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still lookin diesel for SoMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: That would be dynamic. Check out the temps 60s Overnight to teens by afternoon. My preference is the gfs lol but the cmc would be a pretty wild weather day. 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looking at the member LPs, there’s some bombs in there. A few sub 980s at our latitude, hello. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ukmet still cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet. Lock in P21 and we will call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Lock in P21 and we will call it a day. I would call it a winter if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I would call it a winter if that verifies. Here’s the sad news. It won’t. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Here’s the sad news. It won’t. Lol The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now