Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Nice qpf bump on 0Z GEFS. 0Z 18Z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS low track mean does not trend west this run…at 18Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1pm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 That’s a pretty sweet GEFS run. I like the lack of a trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 1pm I like the look on the 24 hr precip panels compared to 18z. Definitely more of a coastal presentation on the precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Best GEFS run yet… 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Solid improvements at 500MB on the 00z gfs versus the 18z and thus far the 0z NAM ICON CMC, while not where the GFS is whatsoever, all trended in its direction @ 500mb instead of the opposite way. Some more than others. If this was D3 or D4 I’d be pretty worried, but we still have a ton of time left for models to iron out what’s going to transpire with the TPV. The important part (as far as this storms evolution is concerned) is entering the GFS’s wheelhouse. And while we are WAY too far out to examine the end result on the NAM, we are entering the range in which it should begin to hone in on what’s going to happen out near Alaska as well. If it looks like the GFS @ 500mb at 00z tomorrow, that’s a great sign of things to come as we get closer. The fact that it looks much more like the GFS through 60 hours than the CMC can only be viewed as a positive. Have a feeling 0z tomorrow is when we start to see models eliminate the more extreme solutions and zero in on a tighter solution envelop. Perhaps it’s not a KU, but I’d sure as shit take a solid 3-6/4-8” area wide storm on Christmas eve - especially with arctic air and another threat - albeit smaller - right on its heels. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: That’s a pretty sweet GEFS run. I like the lack of a trend west. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looking at the member LPs, there’s some bombs in there. A few sub 980s at our latitude, hello. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. That would be dynamic. Check out the temps 60s Overnight to teens by afternoon. My preference is the gfs lol but the cmc would be a pretty wild weather day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still lookin diesel for SoMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: That would be dynamic. Check out the temps 60s Overnight to teens by afternoon. My preference is the gfs lol but the cmc would be a pretty wild weather day. 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Cmc cracks me up. When you see that heavy snow post artic front. Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looking at the member LPs, there’s some bombs in there. A few sub 980s at our latitude, hello. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ukmet still cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet. Lock in P21 and we will call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Lock in P21 and we will call it a day. I would call it a winter if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I would call it a winter if that verifies. Here’s the sad news. It won’t. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Here’s the sad news. It won’t. Lol The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: So break down so far. GFS and GEFS solid for snow. Icon steps toward GFS Ukmet and CMC fugly FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 4 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: FanDuel odds GFS -120 GEFS -110 ICON +225 UKMET +240 CMC +440 Someone should seriously start a betting website for weather. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. I was telling myself the same thing. I’d be happy to see a slight shift to the GFS idea though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Can’t believe I’m staying up for the euro to probably just have it kick me in the nuts. Ole Yeller, never gives in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS: definitely not a trend for heaviest snows to the west yet.P21 please and thank you . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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