December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some here didn't like that solution lol. Give me a consolidated big low even if it cuts.. front end thump!

Makes perfect sense. 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And latest euro shears it out and digs deeper with a stronger UL over w canada. Goose is cooked on this run. 

Hmm… I need to get up and pull the cord on these slats covering my windows…brb

[Prismshine Productions]

And latest euro shears it out and digs deeper with a stronger UL over w canada. Goose is cooked on this run. 

More like charboiled

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said:

More like charboiled

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

At least we have several follow up events…plenty of rounds in the chamber 

[Chris78]

Pulled from another Sub forum but this looks pretty damn good to me.

[TSSN+]

Inserting this CD into the models tonight let’s see if it helps. 

[nj2va]

here’s WPC day 6 and 7:

disco:

The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z 
model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only 
modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite 
turns out.  
 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. 

And mid-lat ridges are heat-driven?

[MDstorm]

28 minutes ago, nj2va said:

here’s WPC day 6 and 7:

 

Issued early this evening.  Looks like a coastal scraper.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And mid-lat ridges are heat-driven?

Where they are can be a function of wavelengths and many factors but adding heat will only exasperate the problem

 

 

[nj2va]

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.  

[Buddy1987]

Just now, nj2va said:

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.  

Agreed! Just finished looking at it myself. 

[frd]

From Tomer Burg  @burgwx

 

Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs

Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below 

 

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

From Tomer Burg  @burgwx

 

Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs

Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below 

 

Most of  the important stuff happens ahead of the flow between hours 36 and 96.

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

From Tomer Burg  @burgwx

 

Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs

Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below 

 

Thanks

[frd]

Hearing that the ICON is trending better in Alaska presently.  

[LP08]

Icon blah blah but…

[nj2va]

@brooklynwx99 mentioned the shortwave over Alaska.  well, ICON trended stronger with  this, which according to him is what we’d want to see.  I broke my rule and posted about icon but I’ll take any good trend.

[tim123]

Icon at 108 looks way different than 12z

[Cobalt]

Pretty substantial shift..

[TSSN+]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Pretty substantial shift..

Just a bit outside… 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Pretty substantial shift..

I guess anything to get lower heights underneath the block is what we need. 

[BristowWx]

Almost time.  Wake up your weenies.  

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty substantial shift..

Doesn’t even look like the same setup.  

[BristowWx]

The surface looks also different 

[Buddy1987]

Wow.. Icon with some pretty big changes to everyone's point here. Out to 126..

[Solution Man]

Just now, BristowWx said:

The surface looks also different 

Total change

[Terpeast]

Too bad it’s the icon.

Or is it?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Too bad it’s the icon.

Or is it?

Any change in a model that was supporting the cutter idea is good. 

[nj2va]

The ICON is a shitty model but at least it’s a model that took a big step away from the other camp.  Never a good sign when its one model vs everything else so even though its the ICON, still good.

[Paleocene]