Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. And mid-lat ridges are heat-driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: here’s WPC day 6 and 7: Issued early this evening. Looks like a coastal scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And mid-lat ridges are heat-driven? Where they are can be a function of wavelengths and many factors but adding heat will only exasperate the problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: 00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes. Agreed! Just finished looking at it myself. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 From Tomer Burg @burgwx Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, frd said: From Tomer Burg @burgwx Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below Most of the important stuff happens ahead of the flow between hours 36 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, frd said: From Tomer Burg @burgwx Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hearing that the ICON is trending better in Alaska presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Icon blah blah but… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 @brooklynwx99 mentioned the shortwave over Alaska. well, ICON trended stronger with this, which according to him is what we’d want to see. I broke my rule and posted about icon but I’ll take any good trend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Icon at 108 looks way different than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Pretty substantial shift.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty substantial shift.. Just a bit outside… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty substantial shift.. I guess anything to get lower heights underneath the block is what we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Almost time. Wake up your weenies. 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Pretty substantial shift.. Doesn’t even look like the same setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The surface looks also different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Wow.. Icon with some pretty big changes to everyone's point here. Out to 126.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: The surface looks also different Total change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Too bad it’s the icon. Or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Terpeast said: Too bad it’s the icon. Or is it? Any change in a model that was supporting the cutter idea is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The ICON is a shitty model but at least it’s a model that took a big step away from the other camp. Never a good sign when its one model vs everything else so even though its the ICON, still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Wow.. Icon with some pretty big changes to everyone's point here. Out to 126.. Not sure what will happen later, but that PNA ridge... Wow, what a difference! And the piece of PV lower heights in Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not sure what will happen later, but that PNA ridge... Wow, what a difference! And the piece of PV lower heights in Ontario. Beat down rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Runs up i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Way better but the surface is still garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Seems a tad ironic since General Eisenhower fought against Nazi Germany... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Any change in a model that was supporting the cutter idea is good. I mean I know it's the Icon but we'd rather have it showing good things than not. Anything that shows support for a GFS-like solution is a win. Would rather not have it continue to be on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well it was a lakes cutter I think…moved about 500 miles east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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