Ji Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either. It's supposed to be a rare thing not to have a 50 50 low when their is a west based -nao....frustrating that this could be another spine runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The difference in the set up btw the GFS and the Euro can be seen clearly here at the five day mark. Look at the low pressure aloft over the North East Canada: This feature looks to steer the upper low diving south out of Canada all the way down in to Northern Alabama. At the same time on the euro, there is ridging out in front of the upper level low which allows the storm to cut. The 12Z/ 18Z GFS basically looked the same wrt to the overall upper air pattern.. definitely not a step towards the euro imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either. It's supposed to be a rare thing not to have a 50 50 low when their is a west based -nao....frustrating that this could be another spine runner Here is your puny '50-50' low squirting out into the NA as a ridge builds ahead of the deep upper low. This is how a "block" becomes ineffective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Here is your puny '50-50' low squirting out into the NA as a ridge builds ahead of the deep upper low. This is how a "block" becomes ineffective. Some have said December is no longer a winter month. How would this set up be different if it was January 23rd? All things equal wouldn’t this still result in a coastal rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Some have said December is no longer a winter month. How would this set up be different if it was January 23rd? All things equal wouldn’t this still result in a coastal rain event. The 6z GFS gave us a path to victory. The answer is a more significant vortex under the NAO ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 My FB feed today was full of memories of snow in 2020, apparently we had a few inches that year. That's all I want this year. I feel like my expectations aren't out of line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Fwiw the 18z Volkswagen made a move away from doom and gloom and made a 'taffy' out of the tpv extending it broadly towards SE Canada: Eta: probably would end up inland like the gfs op but certainly not looking like it would jump to Lake Superior 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Here is your puny '50-50' low squirting out into the NA as a ridge builds ahead of the deep upper low. This is how a "block" becomes ineffective. Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Surprisingly a number of east and southern solutions in GEFS. We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z. If it was a mangled set up it would be easier. But this is supposed to be the grail pattern. It should be easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: If it was a mangled set up it would be easier. But this is supposed to be the grail pattern. It should be easier. I hear you. But even in the best setups, we still need some luck. I don’t think we need a lot to go right to hit this one big. Sometimes we are hoping for a miracle. Right now we just need the models to key in on a canonical look and get locked in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z Euro is basically unchanged at 500 through H57. eta: through 75, NS SS is slightly stronger. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. I think we know the answer to that question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looking at the WB 18Z GEFS pressure and clown maps I will not give up yet. Surprised so many east tracks on the snow fall maps. I like the spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. And mid-lat ridges are heat/warmth-driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. -4 AO. You'd think it would make things a little easier. I know there's more to it but seems like if 1 thing doesn't line up.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 6z GFS gave us a path to victory. The answer is a more significant vortex under the NAO ridge. Exactly ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. Bluewave had mentioned this as a possible reason for recent inland runners and coastal huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Exactly ! Some here didn't like that solution lol. Give me a consolidated big low even if it cuts.. front end thump! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z EURO at hr90 was a alight improvement over 12z. Taller heights on the ridgeSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: 18z EURO at hr90 was a alight improvement over 12z. Taller rights on the ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk How consolidated was the NS? Stretch or no stretch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 So humor me for a minute is it accurate to say we still don't know jack about weather? In the end weather's gonna do what weather's gonna do 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. Like I said the other day, it will be interesting to see how this goes if we have a moderate Nino next winter. We usually see HL blocking and it has historically brought us more snow than avg in conjunction with an active STJ. If that combo can't work anymore then its time to move north I guess. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z. I agree. We are close. We had a correction at 18z. At 0z, do we have a trend, or another smaller correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 lmaoooo, just catching up on runs today. Gfs went from 44” IMBY from now to 2023, to 1.5” long ways to go friends 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 18Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Strictly based on my IMBY opinion I see nothing wrong with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Feature to watch is the s/w riding over the alaska block (circled yellow) If it stays strong and sharp, then we get a good solution per gfs. If it flattens and shears out like the 12z euro, we lose the storm. Butterfly effect. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Feature to watch is the s/w riding over the alaska block (circled yellow) If it stays strong and sharp, then we get a good solution per gfs. If it flattens and shears out like the 12z euro, we lose the storm. Butterfly effect. Jeez. That little bend in the isobars will make or break this event even with that h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Jeez. That little bend in the isobars will make or break this event even with that h5 look. And latest euro shears it out and digs deeper with a stronger UL over w canada. Goose is cooked on this run. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now