December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[SnowGolfBro]

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor…Hell no! Turn this around at 0z!

[jonjon]

I'll admit I'm looking forward to seeing the clown maps for this one.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

Should I do it. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, jonjon said:

I'll admit I'm looking forward to seeing the clown maps for this one.

This clown has no lipstick

[peribonca]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2022121618&fh=174

Gefs looks pretty hawt!

[Wonderdog]

25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

For sure. Still plenty of time for things to change or swing back the other way.

Doesn't really appear that much needs to change to get some snow out of this. 6 to 7 days out from a very complex system. One little change upstream may be all it will take. Certainly not set in stone.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I do it. 

You wanna put more folks on anti-depressants? (Besides, what would of that would apply to this specific scenario not working out? Ain't this more detailed wave stuff not timing up properly? I mean last I checked a cutter still cuts, lol)

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You wanna put more folks on anti-depressants?

Why not?  I'm already pretty well boozed up on a couple glasses of wine at this point!! 

[TSSN+]

Man if only. Come on Santa I swear I been good this year.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

Gefs looks pretty hawt!

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Why not?  I'm already pretty well boozed up on a couple glasses of wine at this point!! 

[Heisy]

This was interesting because the GFS didn’t cave with the TPV positioning. In fact the 50/50 was probably in a better spot! The main wave just came in S too hot and heavy this run. This is why the GEFS is still really good because if anything the overall setup was better vs 12z lol

I know some people will jump ship after that run, but it came inland for completely different reasons vs other models and would have easily been another monster hit if the main shortwave was weaker


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I do it. 

 

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You wanna put more folks on anti-depressants?

He's going to do it anyway. Awaiting the diatribe on how perfect patterns don't always work, marginal events don't work anymore, it's never easy down this way, etc. I'm aware of all that and was just blowing off some steam. 

Eta: I'm not throwing in the towel until Sunday earliest. We do need 0z to ease the bleeding just a little bit.

[J.Mike]

24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We need someone to blame for this...who was the most negative?!?!

I want Ji to tell me when the next big rainstorm is .. . . . 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not that simple. This is a big vort digging down, and there needs to be some resistance above it to inhibit it from rotating back northward(cutting). Without a vortex under the NAO ridge(a true block), the confluence/convergence is weak and upper heights just build there out in front as the shortwave digs.

You’re both not wrong.  You’re pointing out WHY this setup could go wrong despite a crazy -AO and west based NAO block. And you’re right. But it also might not just be bad luck either.  You’re right that without lower heights under a block it’s impacts are muted. But we’ve now seen several bouts of -NAO ruined by an eastern mid lat ridge linking up over recent years and by a hostile pac. And I’ve seen research that both might be related to at the very least long term cycles if not permanent changes due to warming. And even if the persistent TNH that’s been killing us isn’t directly related it is being enhanced by the hot tub formerly known as the Gulf.  I see some repetitive patterns here.
 

That’s said I am not saying snows over. M Keep us in this pattern long enough and we likely eventually get lucky. But at the same time I don’t think the pattern has really been THAT awful the last 6 years to have warrented it being the “worst ever” wrt snow.  Instead what I’ve observed as to why is we get NOTHING anymore in bad patterns. Just weeks and weeks of total no hope 50s-70s weather with absolutely no chance at snow no matter how lucky we get with synoptic details.  Then when we do get good patterns we underperform. 

[Ephesians2]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This was interesting because the GFS didn’t cave with the TPV positioning. In fact the 50/50 was probably in a better spot! The main wave just in came S too hot and heavy this run. This is why the GEFS is still really good.

I know some people will jump ship after that run, but it came inland for completely different reasons vs other models and would have easily been another monster hit if the main shortwave was weaker


.

I made some humorous comments earlier (or attempts thereof)...but in all seriousness this is a very good point, which I realized after looking a bit more at what the GFS was showing.  @brooklynwx99 made the same point that it's not even close to the ECMWF evolution.  It's more a matter that the shortwave deepened a lot more.  Plus what @CAPE mentioned about the lower heights underneath the block becoming weaker.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, J.Mike said:

I want Ji to tell me when the next big rainstorm is .. . . . 

Just look at the GFS, I bet this pans out

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS mean ticked west but the individual lp's are spread all over like a dartboard. Diverging rather than converging yes?

[WesternFringe]

I'll admit I'm looking forward to seeing the clown maps for this one.

Here you go. Brutal cutoff on the 18z GFS Kuchera (from Pivotal)


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[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

I want Ji to tell me when the next big rainstorm is .. . . . 

We are looking at it… 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You wanna put more folks on anti-depressants? (Besides, what would of that would apply to this specific scenario not working out? Ain't this more detailed wave stuff not timing up properly? I mean last I checked a cutter still cuts, lol)

I did it. Check out my reply to CApE 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I did it. Check out my reply to CApE 

Yeah I hadn't seen that until just now, lol

[jonjon]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Here you go. Brutal cutoff on the 18z GFS Kuchera (from Pivotal)


.

Aaaah thank you.  I knew I'd enjoy that

[psuhoffman]

To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either. 

[Weather Will]

Looking at the WB 18Z GEFS pressure and clown maps I will not give up yet.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS mean ticked west but the individual lp's are spread all over like a dartboard. Diverging rather than converging yes?

Fwiw I don’t see any euro like solutions. I see some tucked or inland runners like the op. Some big hits like 12z and a handful of OTS misses. It was a good gefs run overall Imo. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either. 

Time to watch Christmas movies.

You're cautious approach to forecasting winter events certainly seems the way to go recently , especially the last few years.

Things certainly do seem different nowadays. I certainly would have bet money on the fact that we had a huge block North of Alaska and a negative Arctic oscillation under four which would almost guarantee a significant snow event here.

 I read a  comment by a met who stated the particular orientation of this block, north south,  potentially increases the likelihood that it connects to a Southeast ridge. I actually mentioned this earlier today.  We have that North Atlantic warm pool east of Maine. Maybe that is a factor as well. 

 

[BristowWx]

Surprisingly a number of east and southern solutions in GEFS. 

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re both not wrong.  You’re pointing out WHY this setup could go wrong despite a crazy -AO and west based NAO block. And you’re right. But it also might not just be bad luck either.  You’re right that without lower heights under a block it’s impacts are muted. But we’ve now seen several bouts of -NAO ruined by an eastern mid lat ridge linking up over recent years and by a hostile pac. And I’ve seen research that both might be related to at the very least long term cycles if not permanent changes due to warming. And even if the persistent TNH that’s been killing us isn’t directly related it is being enhanced by the hot tub formerly known as the Gulf.  I see some repetitive patterns here.
 

 

This would also explain why it appears as if December is becoming a non-winter month faster than any month after, right? From what I've seen, we can get those domains to "play nice" once we're farther into the season when those anomalously warm regions of water have had ample chance to cool down, but they're mostly hostile the earlier we are into the season. That especially doesn't sit well with La Nina regimes as they're much more likely to be frontloaded. It also seems to have knock-on effects when we're dealt an excessively unfavorable pattern very early on, something like the +EPO in late Dec 2020-Jan 2021 and of course Dec 2015 where it took 3-4 weeks for cold air to reach our side of the hemisphere once again. Quite the frustrating game we have to play.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Time to watch Christmas movies.

You're cautious approach to forecasting winter events certainly seems the way to go recently , especially the last few years.

Things certainly do seem different nowadays. I certainly would have bet money on the fact that we had a huge block North of Alaska and a negative Arctic oscillation under four which would almost guarantee a significant snow event here.

 I read a  comment by a met who stated the particular orientation of this block, north south,  potentially increases the likelihood that it connects to a Southeast ridge. I actually mentioned this earlier today.  We have that North Atlantic warm pool east of Maine. Maybe that is a factor as well. 

 

All true…but in a macro sense we seem to be finding lots of excuses for why generally good setups don’t work recently. That’s troubling. The moment that was eye opening to be was when we got a perfect track sub 990 rainstorm in dead mid winter a few years ago. And the excuse was “no arctic air”.  Sure ok. But we shouldn’t need arctic air in late January.