December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

another epic look- hopefully we can all cash in this holiday season 

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.

I almost wrote that when I posted 

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Hey as one who has endured a litany of Cleveland sports agony, I endorse this sentiment!  The drive, the fumble, the Jordan shot at the buzzer, two World Series losses in extra innings of game 7!

But you do get the occasional bright spots (2016 NBA championship in an exciting game 7)!

So 2016 was like Snowmageddon?  And I was just watching the uh...Kick 6 (someone Tweeted it since it was 7 years ago today, lol). I'm a Ravens fan but still--I'm so sorry man, lol (and that year was so bad for the Ravens, the win didn't make a difference for the playoffs...but nevertheless it happened, and became one of the few highlights)

[IronTy]

Bastardi has invoked the stratwarm so I guess we can lock it in now.  

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle

this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.

An uncharacteristic Nina healthy stj signal also. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

An uncharacteristic Nina healthy stj signal also. 

Love seeing the + precip anomalies in the Tennessee valley

[WeatherShak]

Fantastic breakdown and analysis by Mike Thomas.

http:// https://fb.watch/h7K-C3eZd4/


.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

An uncharacteristic Nina healthy stj signal also. 

Ya don't say? Hm...

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

An uncharacteristic Nina healthy stj signal also. 

Well that similarity IS there, but yes, unusual.

[gunny23]

Great early season skiing getting going at Wisp

Timberline was great last weekend. Even w the warm weather and rain.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Maestrobjwa]

Anybody else seeing this about the PNA trying to be more positive?

 

[midatlanticweather]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody else seeing this about the PNA trying to be more positive?

 

[Amped]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Another great thread from Tomer.  Dec 15-20 would be a nice window...

 

Hopefully we'll get a big one.  Seems like we settled for small to moderate overhyped storms a lot the past few years.

[DarkSharkWX]

12z EPS compared to pattern right before Boxing Day Storm in 2010. EPS if anything looks better with more favorable Pacific. While we got missed out on 2010, the pattern was great, we just got unlucky with the storms. EPS has been really consistent with pattern unlike GEFS who we are seeing make moves towards GEFS with better trends in Pacific. Pattern seems to favor us really well, hopefully the big storm we've been waiting for comes soon. That block in Arctic will do us wonders with cold air

[CAPE]

0z Euro runs a wave to our south on the 10th and snows on VA. Near hit. Clean and simple. The setup is nice. Highs and lows positioned where we want them for a frozen event. Low pressure ideally would be further NE off the Maritimes to avoid damping/suppressing the wave as it heads towards the coast, but it is an op run that shows the generally favorable setups we can get with a legit -NAO.

0z GFS has a modest wave with a similar outcome in the same window, a bit earlier.

[CAPE]

0z EPS for the 12-13th window where a more significant event could materialize involving a coastal low. A decent signal has been there in recent runs on the means. This one may be more complex.. Miller B-ish.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z

[anotherman]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z

-PNA?

[Wonderdog]

CMC on board for a VA event on 12/09-12/10 at end of its run.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

CMC on board for a VA event on 12/09-12/10 at end of its run.

think that was on the 12z run unless I am looking at wrong thing.  The 0z run looks less inspired/slower.  but the potential is there. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, anotherman said:

-PNA?

Looks like it's turning positive. Reminds me of 09-10 actually. 

[Wonderdog]

Right you are brother, thanks! Good reminder to check the date/time of the runs.

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

An uncharacteristic Nina healthy stj signal also. 

Kind of makes you wonder if things are behaving like an El Nino base state (preview of next winter?).

[frd]

Data and image Coutesy of Don Sutherland @donsutherland1

Neutral to + PNA certainly raises the odds of snowfall for many locatioins in this image.  

 

[clskinsfan]

That block is unreal. I mean you cant really ask for a better look as far as East Coast snowstorms go. The block backs over Baffin as this Gefs run moves to mid month as the block weakens as well. That is probably our prime window to get hammered. A weakening block with it retrograding over Baffin just screams beatdown for us. When I was calling out the mid December period a couple of weeks ago it was pure speculation. It is starting to get more real now IMO. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Hopefully the reload is short lived and we can maintain something good through Jan 10 - 15.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hopefully the reload is short lived and we can maintain something good through Jan 10 - 15.

The pattern might just morph from one favorable configuration to another, like the CFS is suggesting. Not typically how things roll, but this could be one of those winters.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, CAPE said:

The pattern might just morph from one favorable configuration to another, like the CFS is suggesting. Not typically how things roll, but this could be one of those winters.

I'm at the Greenbriar Resort from Jan 5 - 8. Hoping to see some snow in the mountains.

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That block is unreal. I mean you cant really ask for a better look as far as East Coast snowstorms go. The block backs over Baffin as this Gefs run moves to mid month as the block weakens as well. That is probably our prime window to get hammered. A weakening block with it retrograding over Baffin just screams beatdown for us. When I was calling out the mid December period a couple of weeks ago it was pure speculation. It is starting to get more real now IMO. 

The only thing we need is for there to be shortwaves coming at us from the southwest. As we all know, if we have to rely on the northern stream to get it done for us, then we're teetering precariously on the edge. But yeah...that look is pretty phenomenal. How about we just get a bowling ball that rocks out of Colorado and straight across the country?

I do have a question for anyone who can answer: If we do rely more on the northern stream, is it helpful to have the ridge axis a little further west or do we still want it ideally running though Idaho?