TowsonWeather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That was an out-to-sea scenario, and then it turned north at the last minute. I remember Doug Hill saying "okay, I'm a little suspicious, this seems to be moving north not east..." We're not going to do the reverse unless there's a redevelopment scenario. You've been awfully definitive in your announcements that this is all but dead and buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NAM doesn't look like Euro at 500 at H84 thats for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Looks to be more in the GFS camp still (dare I say another step towards the GFS?).It wasSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. How big a step? Trust me, IT MATTERSSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Guys, we already know GFS is New King, hands down, if it pulls off this win. It starts with 18z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. Hey any positive is welcome at this point (I know I'm contradicting myself after I just trashed the ICON earlier, lol). Less energy left behind in WC. Look up top did seem to improve a bit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Guys, we already know GFS is New King, hands down, if it pulls off this win. It starts with 18z today If we get a foot+ of snow next week, the Euro can come to the party too. No hard feelings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: If we get a foot+ of snow next week, the Euro can come to the party too. No hard feelings Ji post was spot on. 20 to 3-6 ok fine…20-0 hurts…badly. Lemme pour a drink and get ready for this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just dropping this here, if the all-important 18z GFS run doesn't suit you. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The ICON is still well.. the ICON, but a sizeable positive shift w/ regards to how it handles the TPV. Doesn't get anywhere near resembling a GFS scenario, but maybe we could at least avoid the dreaded pre-Christmas 60s torch? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: The ICON is still well.. the ICON, but a sizeable positive shift w/ regards to how it handles the TPV. Doesn't get anywhere near resembling a GFS scenario, but maybe we could at least avoid the dreaded pre-Christmas 60s torch? The energy up north looks to stretch on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 To me (whatever my opinion is worth here, lol), we are not out of it if we see incremental improvements in the WC energy thing. Since that affects so much downstream for our threat, as long as that's not settled...we still in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 LOL the CMC doesn't even agree with it's ensembles GEPS is in the GFS campSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: The energy up north looks to stretch on 18z. Yep (nice that it's a feature even us less experienced folk can easily see...Like @WxUSAF said earlier--we need the Laffy taffy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 If gfs caves it will be in one or two runs if euro caves it will be baby steps each run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: LOL the CMC doesn't even agree with it's ensembles GEPS is in the GFS camp Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk That model is never right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep (nice that it's a feature even us less experienced folk can easily see...Like @WxUSAF said earlier--we need the Laffy taffy) I think psu said it but they are both smart. Here we go…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Out for an early dinner, hope indigestion does not await…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Buckle up darlings, and friendly reminder on the 2 drink maximum for Happy Hour ^^Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18Z GFS looks the same through hr6. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 the change in the ICON's handling of the TPV comes down to a change in the strength of the AK vort it made a sizeable shift towards the GFS with a stronger vort, which leads to a much more favorable TPV configuration. if the GFS holds, it might be onto something after all 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Anyone have that plot graph of the model accuracy that gets posted time to time? The one that shows how close to 1.00(100%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in. I'll sum it up: he's kind of a dummy who is not particularly honest about his Big Pronouncements when they don't come to pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in. However long that video was, that's how much time out of your life you just wasted. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in. Well he’s usually not right…so we may be on to something here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS largely unchanged through 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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