Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Remember we want more of that energy in western Canada to slide east. Ah I see--After the OP run disaster I'll take it! Interested to see what 18z looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: At this point we should probably start rooting for anything non-GFS Why? Or am I reading this wrong? At this point we should be waiting and seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Remember we want more of that energy in western Canada to slide east. This is actually very helpful to see the differences and is somewhat encouraging among all the negativity elsewhere. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: GFS/JMA vs ICON/EURO/CMC... oof Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I feel like the GFS/JMA combo has worked in the past. Why not once more?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 You know we are going the wrong way when ppl like HM and DT are silent. Speaks volumes. Down but not out. HH GFS is gonna rock. LFG! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Its a Breeze said: Why? Or am I reading this wrong? At this point we should be waiting and seeing... Was being facetious but hopefully by tomorrow evening we gain some sort of concensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Didn’t the GFS sniff out the Jan snowstorm 1st last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Is that going to be enough for you brother? I am retracting the "Yahtzee!!" I ran the Euro run through to 240 for laughs and not a flake to be found even with what looks like the polar vortex transported to near our yards. lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Didn’t the GFS sniff out the Jan snowstorm 1st last year? GFS out performed the EURO last year by some metrics iirc... But it is 2 v 4 in this cage matchSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Tomer Berg is writing an out an awesome thread on Twitter. Echos a lot of what everyone in here was saying too, which is always nice. Not sure it’ll end with a positive conclusion, but… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: GFS/JMA vs ICON/EURO/CMC... oof Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk JMA is not in the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: You call this an improvement?... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I don’t look at clown snow maps 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Also Im comparing to 6z and others are 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We get more big snowstorms than most areas of the country, but that doesn't mean people should expect them.Exactly. That’s my only point. Gotta know your climo. Of course we all want big snowstorms all the time, but there’s a big difference between wishing and the reality of local climo. Even up here in the “highlands” where we get a decent amount more snow than the i95 corridor, I don’t expect to see lower Hudson valley to interior northeast type snowfall. That’s just not the reality of where I live is all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Counterpoint to the idea that you're living in the wrong area if you root for big storms. I'd agree if you mean you want a big storm every winter. We're going on 7 years since our last single snowfall that reached even 8 inches. Even for this area, that's a pretty extended stretch. So can't really blame the folks who are feeling that way. Strictly speaking of those who expect a KU every storm. Not a ton of folks fall in this category, but there are enough. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: At this point we should probably start rooting for anything non-GFS and just plow that arctic air into the East. Maybe we can at least manage to not screw up the BN Temps that models had across the board. I mean, we can't fail at getting the cold established right? Every LR guidance had it. Lol. Why would we root for anything non Gfs? Gfs is snow on snow on snow. Have you been hanging with Ldub? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 so euro--now snow at all for December. Just cold and dry except a little rain on Dec 23 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t look at clown snow maps i know we love HECS hunting but the problem is--when we dont get a HECS..we dont even get a SECS....alot of times...we will go from 20 to 0 and waste a week of our lives. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ji said: so euro--now snow at all for December. Just cold and dry except a little rain on Dec 23 So your rule used to be when the GFS shows something that screws us it's usually right...Alright so now it's showing the opposite. What's the rule for that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ji said: i know we love HECS hunting but the problem is--when we dont get a HECS..we dont even get a SECS....alot of times...we will go from 20 to 0 and waste a week of our lives. He isn't really wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ji said: i know we love HECS hunting but the problem is--when we dont get a HECS..we dont even get a SECS....alot of times...we will go from 20 to 0 and waste 3 months of our lives. Fixed it for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I personally couldn't ever care less about what the Icon, Ukie, or frankly even the CMC show. But when they're all in agreement with the Euro, that's a very bad sign and trend. One is going to move towards the others at 0z tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Maybe this will morph into a colder and farther S version of yesterday's system. I mean, that wouldn't be a terrible thing....atmospheric memory and all those other superstitious myths. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe this will morph into a colder and farther S version of yesterday's system. I mean, that wouldn't be a terrible thing....atmospheric memory and all those other superstitious myths. Unless the GFS digs in and scores the coup of the century, this may be the best case scenario... cutter with redevelopment over CAD with a small thump to dry slot. I'll take it if it the models compromise to that scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I know the gfs is on an island right now, but it’s the new King, and to see the GFS OP and GEFS in line on a key feature 54ish hours out is enough for me to still feel there’s a decent chance it’s right. The euro’s wheelhouse is more in the mid range which is where it showed a similar evolution to what the GFS is currently showing in regards to how it handled the energy out west. If the euro is indeed doing its usual song and dance of hanging back too much energy out west in the 54-84 hour range, then it’s plausible that the result downstream at D7 (the final evolution of the storm) is incorrect. Of course, the GFS could end up being wrong and could eventually cave to the other “camp” in the coming 2-3 days, but if we’re strictly going off performance in the 48-84h range, I’d take the GFS over the Euro given it’s success over the past year since it was upgraded. The GFS’s consistency at 5h & 500mb from run to run has been pretty remarkable, and having support from its ensemble only bolsters it’s credibility IMOAnything’s possible, so we take this a day at a time. If the 00z gfs and tomorrows 12z gfs continue its current look, I have a feeling other models play catch-up in due time. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Um, it has? From this afternoons LWX AFD: Broad, highly anomalous ridging will build into the Arctic, sending a deep upper low south into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley by Thursday. The collision of this cold upper low with warmer temperatures near the Gulf Stream will likely generate a strong area of low pressure in the vicinity of the East Coast. Details in track, strength, and timing remain uncertain, and overall confidence remains low; however, it should be noted that most long range guidance has been unusually consistent in hinting at a potential wintry precipitation scenario late next week. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NBM 18Z v 12Z…..we are off to a good start…. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: NBM 18Z v 12Z…..we are off to a good start…. Curious. If NBM is a "blend" of models, and most models are going cutter, how can this be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: So the GFS is offering up snow on snow on snow the 23rd, 26th, 29th.., thé CMC has rain, and the Euro has dry and cold?? Am I following this right? Yup. Pretty much it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Maybe because the GFS was so snowy it’s skewing the mean? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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