December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago?

I suspected it yesterday.  ICON  UKME and CMC all had it and so did plenty of members from the GEFS and EPS.

[BristowWx]

^at least they all agree there will be a low somewhere in the east.  Thats fun right

[H2O]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy

the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution

the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence

which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread

Good post.  The other thing I noticed was the difference between the two with the energy in the SW and how each one handles that.  Euro hangs it back while GFS has it moving east which I think helps pull the piece of TPV we need.  Correct me if I'm wrong

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Energy is more consolidated and the placement of the ridge out west sucks more at 12z. But what causes that?

The GFS is weaker with the vortex in western Canada. That allows it to split and some of it to slide east.  All other guidance is much stronger and that allows it to resist the flow, cut off, and just spin there. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Good post.  The other thing I noticed was the difference between the two with the energy in the SW and how each one handles that.  Euro hangs it back while GFS has it moving east which I think helps pull the piece of TPV we need.  Correct me if I'm wrong

you're correct about the movement of the energy in the SW... just not sure if it really has any impact compared to the other factors! good question tho

[brooklynwx99]

also, it's worth noting that the CMC and ECMWF have a tendency to overamplify systems in the medium range. we saw this a lot last January when the ECMWF kept cooking up blizzards that never happened. not saying that it's wrong. more so that if it was going to be wrong, this is how it would do it

[09-10 analogy]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Does the fact that the 12z shows more of a closed 500 low than the 0z have any implications as to trend? 

EDIT: As in, trending toward a more gratifying surface solutions for weenies.

[LeesburgWx]

I thought we were bad here, but wow, the NE thread is in total meltdown 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I thought we were bad here, but wow, the NE thread is in total meltdown 

Now see I don't understand their psychology...They are not nearly as starved for snow as we are (and I'd bet their White Christmas is more recent...and yet they meltdown? Lol 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see I don't understand their psychology...They are not nearly as starved for snow as we are (and I'd bet their White Christmas is more recent...and yet they meltdown? Lol 

They have higher expectations and it hasn’t snowed much at all yet in many places. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see I don't understand their psychology...They are not nearly as starved for snow as we are (and I'd bet their White Christmas is more recent...and yet they meltdown? Lol 

Maybe we're just used to losing storms modeled 7 days out so we're not that surprised.

[BristowWx]

^one thing for sure we are gonna need a bigger bottle of something for happy hour in a few hours...I can heard the pbp in my head already

[NorthArlington101]

Shockingly (not) the EPS is looking pretty similar to the OP.

vs the GFS

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

^one thing for sure we are gonna need a bigger bottle of something for happy hour in a few hours...I can heard the pbp in my head already

"its north!"

 

"more digging through hr12"

 

"close the blinds"

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

^one thing for sure we are gonna need a bigger bottle of something for happy hour in a few hours...I can heard the pbp in my head already

“USA!” Open the good Bourbon”

”Caving to the king” Open the rail Bourbon

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Shockingly (not) the EPS is looking pretty similar to the OP.

vs the GFS

Damn, this is great stuff. Who will waiver first?

[osfan24]

We have quite the showdown. Seems like GFS is off on its own island, but maybe it scores a coup. Guess it's on to the 18z runs!

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Shockingly (not) the EPS is looking pretty similar to the OP.

vs the GFS

But the eps is an improvement over the last run. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But the eps is an improvement over the last run. 

How so?

[snowmagnet]

So the GFS  is offering up snow on snow on snow the 23rd, 26th, 29th.., thé CMC has rain, and the Euro has dry and cold?? Am I following this right?

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But the eps is an improvement over the last run. 

This is where I'm immediately out of my depth haha. Toggling back and forth between 06z I see a possible narrow improvement on that same view -- if it's improved elsewhere would love if you could share 

[paxpatriot]

Given the early differences between the GFS and Euro, we should get a fold-em soon from one of them, correct?

[TSSN+]

We suck at real snow,  but are kings of modeled snow. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, paxpatriot said:

Given the early differences between the GFS and Euro, we should get a fold-em soon from one of them, correct?

You'd think given the PV changes out west occur inside 84 that yeah probably....the coastal low idea is probably gone but there is a chance this just ends up a strung out POS still...I am not sold the wild amped Op Euro idea is right...it may in the end trend to a FROPA but this most likely can no longer be an EC snow event unless somehow the W Canada PV evolution today is simply a blip by the Euro/CMC 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We suck at real snow,  but are kings of modeled snow. 

Half the fun is the model snow high lol.

Re: JI

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You'd think given the PV changes out west occur inside 84 that yeah probably....the coastal low idea is probably gone but there is a chance this just ends up a strung out POS still...I am not sold the wild amped Op Euro idea is right...it may in the end trend to a FROPA but this most likely can no longer be an EC snow event unless somehow the W Canada PV evolution today is simply a blip by the Euro/CMC 

Well based on what you said there, many of us had the best hour and a half of our lives between the GFS and the Euro...it was fun for sure. 

[Prismshine Productions]

But the eps is an improvement over the last run. 

You call this an improvement?...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[TSSN+]

We have seen past storms shift 500 plus miles on the models in just the day 2-3 time frame. Till we get into early next week it’s pretty much just throwing darts. 

[Its a Breeze]

GFS...EURO.... blah

What does the JMA have to say?

[NorthArlington101]