Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome. Different how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 By Sunday it’s 4 days from projection and starting then if the low is still on coast then models are in range where they won’t flip it to thru the Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: GFS vs the world, we got this! . I've never posted the following anytime, anywhere, but now is as good a time as ever: America, f**k yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep. Now someone in the other forum brought up the idea of if the block could essentially be too strong (and that that's the reason the energy can't get through because it gets trapped) Thoughts, anyone? The trapping did just happen so very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: GFS vs the world, we got this! . GFS is the new DGEX 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Different how? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, weathervswife said: How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? Way, way too early to look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, weathervswife said: How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? GFS like IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Different how? The 12z run has a closed low over central South Dakota. 00z had more of an elongated low/trough sweeping through MN/WI at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: The 12z run has a closed low over central South Dakota. 00z had more of an elongated low/trough sweeping through MN/WI at the same time. consistency is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It's got the same kind of cold wall of death that the ICON was showing at 12z - at least that's fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Is there any known studies or has history taught us as to which model usually handles western ridges better? That seems to be playing a factor as well unless someone with more knowledge and experience corrects me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: consistency is overrated 500 low is diving. Primary is in the midwest, but we care whether we can get the 500 far enough south to pop a new surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Way, way too early to look at the NAM. At 54 or so? No it’s not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At least it looks cool on a map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro top, GFS bottom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Energy is more consolidated and the placement of the ridge out west sucks more at 12z. But what causes that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago? winterwxluvr hopes so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The euro isn't what we want in the end, but you have to marvel at a setup that would produce this temperature structure. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread 11 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 WB 12z GFS, EURO, and GDOS at 1am Friday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago? I suspected it yesterday. ICON UKME and CMC all had it and so did plenty of members from the GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ^at least they all agree there will be a low somewhere in the east. Thats fun right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread Good post. The other thing I noticed was the difference between the two with the energy in the SW and how each one handles that. Euro hangs it back while GFS has it moving east which I think helps pull the piece of TPV we need. Correct me if I'm wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Energy is more consolidated and the placement of the ridge out west sucks more at 12z. But what causes that? The GFS is weaker with the vortex in western Canada. That allows it to split and some of it to slide east. All other guidance is much stronger and that allows it to resist the flow, cut off, and just spin there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Good post. The other thing I noticed was the difference between the two with the energy in the SW and how each one handles that. Euro hangs it back while GFS has it moving east which I think helps pull the piece of TPV we need. Correct me if I'm wrong you're correct about the movement of the energy in the SW... just not sure if it really has any impact compared to the other factors! good question tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 also, it's worth noting that the CMC and ECMWF have a tendency to overamplify systems in the medium range. we saw this a lot last January when the ECMWF kept cooking up blizzards that never happened. not saying that it's wrong. more so that if it was going to be wrong, this is how it would do it 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Does the fact that the 12z shows more of a closed 500 low than the 0z have any implications as to trend? EDIT: As in, trending toward a more gratifying surface solutions for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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