aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS vs the world, we got this!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I know we want the snowiest output but which model handles the upper levels better. GFS or euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. Are we saying we want the Euro to blow it's wad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows Yep. Now someone in the other forum brought up the idea of if the block could essentially be too strong (and that that's the reason the energy can't get through because it gets trapped) Thoughts, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows I prefer my snow in my yard rather than in Schrödinger's box 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome. Different how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 By Sunday it’s 4 days from projection and starting then if the low is still on coast then models are in range where they won’t flip it to thru the Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: GFS vs the world, we got this! . I've never posted the following anytime, anywhere, but now is as good a time as ever: America, f**k yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep. Now someone in the other forum brought up the idea of if the block could essentially be too strong (and that that's the reason the energy can't get through because it gets trapped) Thoughts, anyone? The trapping did just happen so very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: GFS vs the world, we got this! . GFS is the new DGEX 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Different how? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, weathervswife said: How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? Way, way too early to look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, weathervswife said: How does the NAM handle the energy out west-early on? GFS like IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Different how? The 12z run has a closed low over central South Dakota. 00z had more of an elongated low/trough sweeping through MN/WI at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: The 12z run has a closed low over central South Dakota. 00z had more of an elongated low/trough sweeping through MN/WI at the same time. consistency is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It's got the same kind of cold wall of death that the ICON was showing at 12z - at least that's fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Is there any known studies or has history taught us as to which model usually handles western ridges better? That seems to be playing a factor as well unless someone with more knowledge and experience corrects me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: consistency is overrated 500 low is diving. Primary is in the midwest, but we care whether we can get the 500 far enough south to pop a new surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Way, way too early to look at the NAM. At 54 or so? No it’s not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At least it looks cool on a map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro top, GFS bottom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Energy is more consolidated and the placement of the ridge out west sucks more at 12z. But what causes that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So do we really believe this is going to morph into a cutter west of Chicago? winterwxluvr hopes so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The euro isn't what we want in the end, but you have to marvel at a setup that would produce this temperature structure. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread 11 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 WB 12z GFS, EURO, and GDOS at 1am Friday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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