Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Spoiler: It won't be as a good as the gfs. Go figure, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 can we let the damn run finish? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Through 72, Stronger and still west for the Euro, GFS seems to be on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, H2O said: can we let the damn run finish? The critical features to observe that have a domino effect to the rest of the run are only 3-4 days out but your point is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The fact that WPC favors the Euro over GFS over the first 3 days of the model runs gives me pause. What if the Euro is correct on handling the ULL in W Canada for the first 72 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: can we let the damn run finish? Western Canada seems to be the key piece, though. Doesn't appear to be much change with that so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yup...Euro has that energy consolidated on the border of British Columbia and Alberta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: The fact that WPC favors the Euro over GFS over the first 3 days of the model runs gives me pause. What if the Euro is correct on handling the ULL in W Canada for the first 72 hours from now. Then we lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: can we let the damn run finish? We just want to be prepared for when it shows that we get drenched, followed by bone-chilling cold and frozen puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, cbmclean said: Then we lose. not unfamiliar state of affairs. ops normal if that happens. I dont believe either solution as of now. GEFS/EPS is the way to go until monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature. I'm not big into playing off models or model "camps" on one another, but either the GFS is wrong as shit with that feature or the Euro/CMC/whatever else are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Are we back to 10 degrees in San Diego again on the euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 After seeing the Euro De-throned by the GFS so many times recently, I am not jumping ship. The GFs ensembles pretty much matched the GFS Op. I’m putting my chips there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 96 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'm going with the "angle of ejection" of that energy in Canada will separate the Euro and Canadian. Edit: There's just no ridge out west at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 no major changes to the euro through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. Careful calling something a big wad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. One big wad....known bias of the euro and nickname to a few posters on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. Kind reminds me of cases of phasing in the past, where we had two widely different outcomes depending on if it happens or not. But this is like, in the reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yeah, looks like 10 degrees in San Diego model is going the way of the other non GFS models. Model war! Good thing we got a long ways to go in terms of wx time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. Yeah we just gonna have to be patient...Ain't no way to know until somebody folds in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS vs the world, we got this!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I know we want the snowiest output but which model handles the upper levels better. GFS or euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad. Are we saying we want the Euro to blow it's wad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows Yep. Now someone in the other forum brought up the idea of if the block could essentially be too strong (and that that's the reason the energy can't get through because it gets trapped) Thoughts, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Until one moves towards the other I fail to see how anyone can say either is correct at this point. In their own way the GFS and the Euro are correct as far as anyone knows I prefer my snow in my yard rather than in Schrödinger's box 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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