December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[nj2va]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The ukie only gets attention when it shows snow in the face of everything else. Otherwise, imho, it usually adds confusion and uncertainty instead clearing up gfs/euro divergence. I keep it simple in mid to short range. Euro/gfs blend, hedging towards which one makes the most sense (subjective). Nams are good t add 48 hours in for clearing up qpf/temp details when things are dicey. There are magnitudes more old threads with post storm discussion that says euro/gfs blend was good from 4 days out or whatever. Rarely if ever does the cmc or ukie end up being the best mid range solution. ICON should be ctrl-alt-deleted

Spot on.  I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago.  It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different).  You forgot to assess the JMA...

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Spot on.  I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago.  It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different).  You forgot to assess the JMA...

God that’s like the NOGAPS back in the day.. between it and the UKIE with like 60 hrs before the storm they’d be 500 miles southeast of everything else and then all of a sudden magically swing several hundred miles northwest and start to lock in. 

[Terpeast]

Here’s how WPC is weighting models for their forecast blend:

“The WPC fronts/pressures was primarily based on a 40% ECMWF/20% GFS/20% CMC/20% ECENS blend for Monday and Tuesday, and then the proportion of the ECENS and GEFS means were increased going through the remainder of the week to account for the increasing model uncertainty. Future forecast updates will provide additional clarity on the eventual East Coast storm evolution and potential impacts.”

This was after the 0z suite.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[SnowLover22]

The good news is the differences between the favorable solutions and unfavorable solutions GFS and CMC respectively can be traced back to the shortwave over Alaska at 54 hours. Meaning this model "war" should end relatively soon. One should cave "soon"

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

The good news is the differences between the favorable solutions and unfavorable solutions GFS and CMC respectively can be traced back to the shortwave over Alaska at 54 hours. Meaning this model "war" should end relatively soon. One should cave "soon"

Which also means we ain't gotta wait too long on the Euro before we have an idea where this run is gonna go, lol

[SnowLover22]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Which also means we ain't gotta wait too long on the Euro before we have an idea where this run is gonna go, lol

Spoiler: It won't be as a good as the gfs. 

[LP08]

Euro through 54 has the ULL in western Canada in a very similar position to the Ukmet, further west than the GFS

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Spoiler: It won't be as a good as the gfs. 

Go figure, smh

[H2O]

can we let the damn run finish?

[LP08]

Through 72, Stronger and still west for the Euro, GFS seems to be on its own.

[SnowLover22]

Just now, H2O said:

can we let the damn run finish?

The critical features to observe that have a domino effect to the rest of the run are only 3-4 days out but your point is valid. 

[Terpeast]

The fact that WPC favors the Euro over GFS over the first 3 days of the model runs gives me pause. What if the Euro is correct on handling the ULL in W Canada for the first 72 hours from now.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

can we let the damn run finish?

Western Canada seems to be the key piece, though. Doesn't appear to be much change with that so far

[mattie g]

Yup...Euro has that energy consolidated on the border of British Columbia and Alberta.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

The fact that WPC favors the Euro over GFS over the first 3 days of the model runs gives me pause. What if the Euro is correct on handling the ULL in W Canada for the first 72 hours from now.

Then we lose.

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

can we let the damn run finish?

We just want to be prepared for when it shows that we get drenched, followed by bone-chilling cold and frozen puddles.

[BristowWx]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Then we lose.

not unfamiliar state of affairs.  ops normal if that happens. I dont believe either solution as of  now.  GEFS/EPS is the way to go until monday. 

[nj2va]

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours.  Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours.  Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.

I'm not big into playing off models or model "camps" on one another, but either the GFS is wrong as shit with that feature or the Euro/CMC/whatever else are.

[aldie 22]

Are we back to 10 degrees in San Diego again on the euro?

[LeesburgWx]

After seeing the Euro De-throned by the GFS so many times recently, I am not jumping ship. The GFs ensembles pretty much matched the GFS Op. I’m putting my chips there.

[LP08]

96 hours

[mattie g]

I'm going with the "angle of ejection" of that energy in Canada will separate the Euro and Canadian.

Edit: There's just no ridge out west at all.

[ryanconway63]

no major changes to the euro through 102

[WxUSAF]

We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains.  0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did.  12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.  

[H2O]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains.  0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did.  12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.  

Careful calling something a big wad

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains.  0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did.  12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.  

One big wad....known bias of the euro and nickname to a few posters on here

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains.  0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did.  12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.  

Kind reminds me of cases of phasing in the past, where we had two widely different outcomes depending on if it happens or not. But this is like, in the reverse?

[stormtracker]

Yeah, looks like 10 degrees in San Diego model is going the way of the other non GFS models.  Model war!  Good thing we got a long ways to go in terms of wx time

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains.  0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did.  12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.  

Yeah we just gonna have to be patient...Ain't no way to know until somebody folds in a couple days.